jmundie Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Just waiting for someone to tell me the 12z Euro paints 12+ of snow for KTRI. Certainly sounded like a good run for this area. .9 qpf at BNA.... ratios I imagine would be 10-15 to 1 So i'm sure you do well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 beanskip is talking about the 540 line which is not always indicative of the 0c line Gotcha, I was talking about the 850 0c line. It runs thru extreme N GA mtns (Does keep it around or just south of rome)all of western NC and then central NC from I-40 north. All of Tenn and Northern ALA and Miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Just waiting for someone to tell me the 12z Euro paints 12+ of snow for KTRI. Certainly sounded like a good run for this area. 1.09" with 850 below 0 throughout the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Cheez, could you post the Jma 144 hour 850 mb ma. or tell us where the 0c 850 line is? I don't currently have access to it. TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Cheez, could you post the Jma 144 hour 850 mb ma. or tell us where the 0c 850 line is? I don't currently have access to it. TIA If lookout out will let me, I will post it and the 168 map for just a minute or two. Then I will delete it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 12z GFS members at day 6, sig shift towards a flatter solution compared to 0z, where the majority were already bringing the storm up the coast at this point. Cheez, could you post the Jma 144 hour 850 mb ma. or tell us where the 0c 850 line is? I don't currently have access to it. TIA http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_850_GPHTMPRH_144HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 please allow this.. i have a strong love for the JMA for some reason... probably goes back to my liking of asian girls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Cheez, could you post the Jma 144 hour 850 mb ma. or tell us where the 0c 850 line is? I don't currently have access to it. TIA Larry check your pm's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Larry check your pm's Tks WeatherNC and Canton. Would be just a cold rain if this JMA verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 one thing of note regarding the GFS ensembles... is some of the members are REALLY suppressed.... I wouldnt be surprised to see it send one to Cuba before all is said and done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 please allow this.. i have a strong love for the JMA for some reason... probably goes back to my liking of asian girls The pay maps have some copyright issues attached via "redistribution prohibited." Not a good idea to post them here, even if it is for a couple minutes as the board is more important than a 168 hr JMA map. Through 144 hrs has updated on Earl's model page, and 168 and 192 should be updating on Meteociel here in a bit. Not much to really see given the model runs at 24hr steps, and the action for us is between 144 and 168 hrs. @ 168 it has a 985mb low just outside of the Benchmark, @ 144 hrs a 1008mb low is centered near the mouth of the MS, and based on some rough plotting of the QPF in between (which is never smart), I would estimate it comes off around SAV/CHS and maybe clips the OBX. Likely just north of a preferred FL panhandle track for us Millz, but certainly not an Apps runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 1.09" with 850 below 0 throughout the event. Thanks, I figured it was over 1.0 from the way the discussion evolved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 This sums up how the Euro and JMA compare at 144... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Well, if the biases of the GFS and Euro are in play, expect a result that's in between the current operational runs. The GFS tends to start suppressing systems south and east in this time period only to adjust back later. Yes, I have seen a couple of ensemble members suppress this system into nothing and towards cuba. The Euro tends to hold back energy so if it were a little faster, there would be less amplification resulting in a less intense and flatter system. Let's see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 The tuesday system set's the stage as Allan said. The models have trended much stronger with that. Some even drop some snow in NC with that now. If that keeps up, it's likely it creates a more favorable Atlantic. The PNA ridge is MASSIVE here on the euro. Close to levels we saw back in 02-03. That really supports a strong SLP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 For our Tennessee and western NC bretheren (and sisters)................this actually has about as good a look as you could hope for at this point. Plentiful cold air to be tapped, gulf low that should have ample moisture, a GFS run which is suppressed south, and a Euro run which held the energy back yet still yielded a BIG midsouth to western Carolinas snow. It may completely change against our favor, but this is about as optimistic as you can be this far out for the areas I have mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 1.09" with 850 below 0 throughout the event. For our Tennessee and western NC bretheren (and sisters)................this actually has about as good a look as you could hope for at this point. Plentiful cold air to be tapped, gulf low that should have ample moisture, a GFS run which is suppressed south, and a Euro run which held the energy back yet still yielded a BIG midsouth to western Carolinas snow. It may completely change against our favor, but this is about as optimistic as you can be this far out for the areas I have mentioned. I clearly decided to appear again at the perfect time. WOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I clearly decided to appear again at the perfect time. WOW. Yes, you did. The models have had this storm for a couple of days now and the GFS runs of the past day have painted us a nice snowstorm. As usual, a lot of flopping. I took a break too. Getting nickled and dimed to death while others hit the jackpot has made this winter tough to follow (even though we have been blessed with above average snow). I know you have done a lot better than us here in the valleys so you probably took a break b/c you had your fill.....a completely different reason than me. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 If the Euro verifies I'm taking a day or two off and heading west. No way I'm stuck 50 miles too far south and east for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Yes, you did. The models have had this storm for a couple of days now and the GFS runs of the past day have painted us a nice snowstorm. As usual, a lot of flopping. I took a break too. Getting nickled and dimed to death while others hit the jackpot has made this winter tough to follow (even though we have been blessed with above average snow). I know you have done a lot better than us here in the valleys so you probably took a break b/c you had your fill.....a completely different reason than me. lol Hahaha, well my schedule is actually what forced me away for a bit. Class five days a week, a girlfriend, a job, and other hobbies and interests pile up quickly! Anyway, there is never such a thing as having a fill of snow. I bought a Subaru Outback in November and installed Michelin Hydroedge tires so I've had a very reliable winter weather vehicle. If I can get around in the weather, I don't have a problem with the weather! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 If the Euro verifies I'm taking a day or two off and heading west. No way I'm stuck 50 miles too far south and east for this one. No joke man! I will be doing the same thing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 ok, it's hard to keep with model performance, but over the last month or so, which model has performed best at this range? As of late... 1. UKMet 2. Euro 3.GFS 4. CMC 5. FNMOC (what is that?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 No joke man! I will be doing the same thing! I think the trends are good though and considering how bad the models were with this storm you gotta like our odds. Like someone else mentioned the more likely solution is a blend of the Euro and GFS which is a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 As of late... 1. UKMet 2. Euro 3.GFS 4. CMC 5. FNMOC (what is that?) FNMOC=NOGAPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Another opinion - DT says the pattern does not support in any way the suppressed tracks of the Euro and GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Another opinion - DT says the pattern does not support in any way the suppressed tracks of the Euro and GFS It does if that Canadian Vortex is as strong as the Euro and Gfs show as mentioned by our mets here, Foothills, Raleighwx and Hickorywx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 Here is a portion of the AFD from NWS-GSP: THE MAIN MODEL DIFFERENCE DURING THE WED NIGHT/THU PERIOD OF INTEREST IS THAT THE GFS/GEFS DEVELOP MORE OF A COASTAL LOW...WITH VERY COLD THICKNESSES SUPPORTING SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE ECM/GEM SOLUTIONS FAVOR MORE OF AN INLAND TRACK...WITH CORRESPONDINGLY WARMER PROFILES AND MORE OF A MIX TO RAIN POTENTIAL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE LATEST ECM RUN HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS/GEFS SOLUTION...AND THIS COULD BE A HARBINGER OF THINGS TO COME AS THE COASTAL DEVELOPMENT USUALLY WINS OUT. WILL RAMP POPS UP INTO THE SOLID CHANCE RANGE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...WITH MAINLY SNOW MENTIONED IN THE NW HALF...AND RAIN OR SNOW SOUTHEAST. SOME ICY MIXED PTYPES ARE POSSIBLE...BUT PROFILES ARE TOO UNCERTAIN TO MENTION THIS FOR NOW. A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP THE BROAD ERN CONUS TROUGH IN PLACE THROUGH FRI. BRIEF NW FLOW MOISTURE MAY LINGER THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI BEFORE DRYING SETS IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 HPC aftn update...once again, love how they are a 'national' office, but their discussions imply that the world doesn't exist south of the Ohio Valley / Virginia... 12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS: THE 12Z/04 GFS HAS BACKED OFF ITS BIG E COAST SNOWSTORM FOR THU....TAKING A WEAK WAVE ACROSS THE SERN STATES VERY FLAT AND VERY FAR S...A COMPLETE TURNABOUT FROM ITS 00Z RUN. THE 12Z/04 UKMET AND CANADIAN TRENDED FLATTER WITH THE SYS. NOW...IT IS THE 12Z/04 ECMWF WHICH DEPICTS THE HIGHEST THREAT OF HEAVY SNOW FROM THE OH VLY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC INTO SRN NEW ENG THU. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY. A CHANGE UPSTREAM IN THE NEW ECMWF RUN DAY 6 IN THE ERN PACIFIC...IF CORRECT...COULD IMPACT THE DOWNSTREAM SYS OVER THE ERN STATES. A MUCH DEEPER THAN CONTINUITY PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ALONG 140W WILL HELP KEEP THE DOWNSTREAM PATTERN MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN EARLIER ECMWF RUNS WITH COLDER THICKNESSES THRU THE COASTAL PLAIN THU. FINAL GRAPHICS FLATTENED THE SYS OVER THE SERN STATES FOR THU BEFORE WE SAW THE NEW ECMWF BUT OUR CONFIDENCE IN THIS ADJUSTMENT IS LOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Another opinion - DT says the pattern does not support in any way the suppressed tracks of the Euro and GFS DT also changed his mind yesterday in the span of 3 hours based solely on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 FNMOC=NOGAPS Ah, okay, that figures with it being at the bottom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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