GaWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 12z euro gives almost no snow to GA other than right near the north border prior to the storm's arrival. The track needs to shift southward about 160 miles or so. A weaker low would help a lot. I'll take the 12z gfs, please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Also some indications of damming and possibly freezing rain in the upstate as the surface 0c line runs into the upstate. If the euro wasn't so much stronger/slower, it would be a good hit for most. Certainly better than the 0c run though. 156, low is near columbia with strong damming in western nc with a change to freezing rain for parts of nc into the upstate. 0c runs through the extreme eastern nc mountains, rest are above 0c in nc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 That's better than the previous Euro though. It almost sounds like it's coming more in line with the GFS though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 this run is further south for sure. Tn. Valley storm and part of n. GA, Al, MS, Carolinas. The eastern Can. vortex is off the charts deep. not far off from what the JMA is showing. Hard to tell with only access to 24 hour panels. But the storm is a miller A with plenty of cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 if the eastern Canada system is strong, the next storm should avoid being a lakes cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 12z euro gives almost no snow to GA other than right near the north border prior to the storm's arrival. The track needs to shift southward about 160 miles or so. We need some blocking. What is it showing for Mon., please? My 850's are pretty cold and after sleet yesterday and the night before, I'm interested. Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 12z euro gives almost no snow to GA other than right near the north border prior to the storm's arrival. The track needs to shift southward about 160 miles or so. I'm encouraged by this run though. Euro might be hanging back the trough and being too strong and if it is, it will be faster/weaker/further south probably. The 0z run was a disaster for everyone and this run has shifted the low about 200 miles to the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Taken literally, from a NC perspective. Big Snow for mountains, northern Foothills, NW piedmont, narrow transition zone along I-85 corridor with probably snow to ice, with the Triangle on the ice/rain line and a cold rain east of the Triangle. But here is the key folks. This is still in the 144-156 hour range, and look at the dramatic swings in the last 4 or 5 model cycles. We have seen confidence decrease in what the eventual solution will be, but increase that we still have a chance here in the southeast. The GFS is a moderate snow for many. The ECMWF is a heavy snow for some and warmer then the GFS, but much further east/south than the 00z run. The GGEM is rain for most. Quite the spread. I am glad the GFS/ECMWF/GEFS trended more supressed. Hopefully these trends will continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 We need some blocking. What is it showing for Mon., please? My 850's are pretty cold and after sleet yesterday and the night before, I'm interested. Tony Just rain with maybe some post frontal flurries. Also, This run does not have the strong arctic airmass after the big storm that every other run has had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 12z Euro yesterday: northern FL 00z Euro: TN (200 mile shift NW) 12z Euro today: northern FL (200 mile shift SE) What in the world? Consistently inconsistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 We have seen confidence decrease in what the eventual solution will be, but increase that we still have a chance here in the southeast. Thats a good way to put it. Do you think the op. run is too deep on the eastern Can. Vortex? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Would be a small but very damaging ice storm from the far western foothills and far northern piedmont of North Carolina, and then into southeast Virginia near Richmond. 0 degree 850 line retreats to the mountains then into south central Virginia while the surface freezing line barely creeps north once heavier precipitation starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 The strong first system is a great trend that I really want to see continue. It pretty much sets the stage for the second s/w. Now the Euro is still very amplified with the second shortwave, but my hunch is that if the first shortwave can continue to trend stronger, we end up with a stronger 500mb low that can help establish enough blocking to send down the PV in such an orientation that would suppressed any system from being a Lakes or an Apps cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 12z Euro yesterday: northern FL 00z Euro: TN (200 mile shift NW) 12z Euro today: northern FL (200 mile shift SE) What in the world? Consistently inconsistent. I think yesterdays 12z was an apps runner. It was bad for me too dont think it was a miller A track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Trends are good, but I am not holding my breath for most of GA, especially from ATL south- I think the chances are still pretty slim, with the GFS being the only model with hope for me and Dsaur. I think there is a brief snow shower threat behind the front Monday, for now I will assume I get nothing but rain with the Thursday system. TN and NC still much more in the game IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 12z Euro yesterday: northern FL 00z Euro: TN (200 mile shift NW) 12z Euro today: northern FL (200 mile shift SE) What in the world? Consistently inconsistent. If you mean the track of the low, I wish it had shifted all the way south to N FL! However, it looks to actually be over N GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 if the eastern Canada system is strong, the next storm should avoid being a lakes cutter. Completely Agree... thats the key IMO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 12z JMA at 144 hours -- surface low over New Orleans -- but warm with 0c line straddling Va/NC border to Knoxville and just clipping the NW corner of Miss. Wet as hell though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Thats a good way to put it. Do you think the op. run is too deep on the eastern Can. Vortex? Hard to say with all the oscillations. It seems the 12z models are certainly making a bigger deal of the day 3 event and strengthening that low quite a bit which helps elongate the massive eastern Canada vortex and create a pseudo-50/50 low. Just think if that tend is right and the Euro is a bit too slow, typical euro bias, than this would be a massive winter storm for the southeast. What I like is that we are seeing more stream seperation this cycle. This storm has always had the feel to me of the classic southeast winter storms that proceed a big arctic outbreak, where there is a massive vortex in central/eastern canada, little -NAO or blocking signature and the rain/snow line depends solely on the track of the surface low, which will obviously round the base of the trough where the trough axis sets up and that is open for plenty of debate. I think the 3 operational models today show all 3 options (Canadian trough axis further west, more inland/warmer track, ECMWF trough middle ground big snows for Tn Valley/western Carolinas, GFS further east trough axis, weaker system, better snows for further east). I think we will see model convergence with this in a couple of days, but I think alot depends on the first system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Just rain with maybe some post frontal flurries. Also, This run does not have the strong arctic airmass after the big storm that every other run has had. Thanks.And I keep thinking we are going to flip the pattern with some blocking, and major cold. We'll pop a huge one with the right elements in place, but the cold is the key..and it shows up, but then it's getting pushed back again and again. Messes up all my plans, lol. Still, we've got a month of chances..I'll take them one at a time, and look for some sn showers Mon. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 And at 168hrs, Boston seems to get hit again. Doesn't seem to matter what the pattern on the east coast has been this winter, Boston has been the place to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Completely Agree... thats the key IMO! one other thing I think is possible is the moisture coming in similar to the GFS faster than the op. Euro shows. It looks too slow and deep, but maybe thats right. Just more model watching through Monday before we get a solid idea of the track. The Euro is still probably too deep on that vortex, I'd like to see it much stronger on the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 12z JMA at 144 hours -- surface low over New Orleans -- but warm with 0c line straddling Va/NC border to Knoxville and just clipping the NW corner of Miss. Wet as hell though. Accupro has it much farther south than your map does. Going off your post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 A nice warm up coming into the Southeast not long after the storm. Which is pretty typical of Feb. snow here. Just the way I like it, snowfall, then 60's a few days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 beanskip is talking about the 540 line which is not always indicative of the 0c line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 This run of the Euro shows quite a gradient in the Northern piedmont of NC at 0z Friday with the 850 temperatures. Greensboro is at 3.9c while Martinsville, Va is at -2.1 surface temperatures are below freezing at both locations so somewhere between those points will likely see quite a bit of ice in addition to snow. Looks very moist with 1.25"+ This would be quite a Winter storm up this way if it were to verify. Too bad it is still a week away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Accupro has it much farther south than your map does. Going off your post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithinala Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Accupro has it much farther south than your map does. Going off your post. Yeah, JMA looks good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Just waiting for someone to tell me the 12z Euro paints 12+ of snow for KTRI. Certainly sounded like a good run for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyric297 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I can't seem to locate the graph (it's in this thread somewhere) But i think it's the euro and UKMET. Sorry for the late reply on this, but here are some links for model performance: Model Performance Statistics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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