DaculaWeather Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 With a MECS/HECS quite often. For your run of the mill snowstorm, not so much. I strongly feel that the models are not even close at this point to depicting the ultimate final outcome. Only 20+ more GFS runs to go. One drink for each run and I won't care what the weather is next week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 The GGEM is farther north with the polar vortex compared to the GFS. Don't tell me the home country has secret ingest data and a better handle on the vortex positioning Well, you know them... They probably asked it nicely if it could please stay farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 definitley be fun to watch and track, might be our last good potential. I wouldn't say yet. Usually I go by trends, and its still too early to get a trend really. The stronger the s/w is probably the more inland and n/w it tracks. The GFS is only a moderate wave and doesn't buckle the flow much, hence just a southern slider that rounds the long wave trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 ok, it's hard to keep with model performance, but over the last month or so, which model has performed best at this range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGaWxNerd Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 ok, it's hard to keep with model performance, but over the last month or so, which model has performed best at this range? I can't seem to locate the graph (it's in this thread somewhere) But i think it's the euro and UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 It is no accident that the 12z gfs' very weak Miller A produces a major Atl-Ahn snowstorm (~3 1/2"). If one were to look back at past major snows for that area, they would find that the lows were often quite weak. If I were anyone in the Atl-Ahn corridor and wanted the best potential for major snow there, the 12z gfs illustrates very well that something like it would be about the best case scenario. So, let's hope that the 12z comes close to verifying , which would make this already great winter atruly epic one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I can't seem to locate the graph (it's in this thread somewhere) But i think it's the euro and UKMET. ok thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 It's too bad the GFS is so out to lunch because it's a hell of an event. There's 11" at BHM on Bufkit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 The gfs isn't out to lunch until the euro tells it its out to lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 There are some noticeable differences on the 12z euro vs the 0z run. It now produces a more organized low that moves through western tn into the ohio valley at 78 hours vs the 0z run which had it weaker with a weak secondary off the low off the ga coast. The preceding trough ahead of our system is sharper than the 0z run edited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 There are some noticeable differences on the 12z euro vs the 0z run. It now produces a more organized low that moves through western tn into the ohio valley at 78 hours vs the 0z run which had it weaker with a weak secondary off the low off the ga coast. The preceding trough ahead of our system is sharper than the 0z run edited. That sounds like it might be keying on the first system being stronger... which is a great sign, because that will allow more cold air after it amplifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 at 84 hours, the ECMWF has a stronger system in BC coast than the other models. The system coming through the East also appears a little deeper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Theres no doubt the Euro is phasing the Lakes s/w and the Tenn. Valley system into a strong storm in the East. At 96 hours its bombing off the Northeast and cold Arctic air is splling into the central and eastern states in its wake. The western system looks poised to round the southern Rockies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 That sounds like it might be keying on the first system being stronger... which is a great sign, because that will allow more cold air after it amplifies. Quite a bit colder across the southeast at 96 hours vs the 0z run. western system looks a little weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Theres no doubt the Euro is phasing the Lakes s/w and the Tenn. Valley system into a strong storm in the East. At 96 hours its bombing off the Northeast and cold Arctic air is splling into the central and eastern states in its wake. The western system looks poised to round the southern Rockies. That northeastern low goes from around 1000mb on the 0z run to 960 something on this run lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 It looks like its back to making a strong eastern Canada vortex. At 102 hours its down to 968mb in the Gulf of Maine. A 1040 high breaks off in the central Plains, another in Mt. and another in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 It's too bad the GFS is so out to lunch because it's a hell of an event. There's 11" at BHM on Bufkit. With qpf close to 0.60", BHM would be looking at a whopper of a storm. With bufkit giving 11", this tells me that Bufkit Is assuming ratios nearing 20:1. With 850's of ~-2 to -3c, that would seem to be a bit overdone imo. Regardless, we're still looking at a beautiful/historic 6" even at 10:1 ratios! Of course, odds are this run won't come close to verifying since it is still 6 days out. However, we can always hope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 That northeastern low goes from around 1000mb on the 0z run to 960 something on this run lol it certainly reverted back. Its down to 960 something just north of Maine and Arctic air is covering most of the country from I-20 north, with overrunning set to begin at 108 or just after. The southern Rockies system looks strong. Way stronger than GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 at 114, western system is slower and almost closes off an upper low near WY/co Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 The Euro is taking its time with the southwest system. The strong eastern Canada storm is slow as well and the zero line runs just north of 20, from CAE to northern Tx. at 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 @ 120HR, monster storm up the east coast. Our wave is about to enter TX. Much colder. http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/110204182139.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 it certainly reverted back. Its down to 960 something just north of Maine and Arctic air is covering most of the country from I-20 north, with overrunning set to begin at 108 or just after. The southern Rockies system looks strong. Way stronger than GFS. Indeed, which might cause the same end result..despite the huge differences at the surface and aloft prior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Who knows how the euro will end up through 126, it looks like it could bring the cold version of the storm back. But here is what to take away, just massive changes in Canada in this run vs the 00z run, and also big changes in the 12z GFS vs the 00z GFS. As I have been saying, there is still alot of uncertainty and any definitive stance this far out is on shaky ground. Untill we see several cycles of consistent solutions take them with caution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 The Euro is taking its time with the southwest system. The strong eastern Canada storm is slow as well and the zero line runs just north of 20, from CAE to northern Tx. at 120. Im assuming we want the southwest system to come out as quickly as possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 the pressure on the eastern Canada vortex is about 952, which is close to what it had 2 days ago. The sw system is strong looking and may get too strong and run inland, but we'll see if the Eastern Can. vortex acts like a supressor. THe Euro looks a little too slow with the western system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 the pressure on the eastern Canada vortex is about 952, which is close to what it had 2 days ago. The sw system is strong looking and may get too strong and run inland, but we'll see if the Eastern Can. vortex acts like a supressor. THe Euro looks a little too slow with the western system. Seems like it might be holding the s/w back which could be just it's bias showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Through 138, my hunch is that this run will be good fo Tn Valley, N Al/GA, and western Carolinas, we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Certainly colder, at 138 low along the tx/la coast or NE gulf. 0c runs through extreme north al/ga (rome to toccoa) to charlotte to rdu.Precip into alabama Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 this run is further south for sure. Tn. Valley storm and part of n. GA, Al, MS, Carolinas. The eastern Can. vortex is off the charts deep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 A near miss for north ga...0c runs through the extreme northern portion of the state. Looks like a good run for tn and nc. Looks like a wet system too. at 150, low is near columbus. Heavy snow over northern half of nc, especially western. Over half inch liquid. All rain in ga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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