WXinCanton Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 This shifts most of the major snow south of TN - so I'm not really happy with the 12Z run. The cold doesn't seem to be as strong either. We'll see what 0Z brings. I'll accept 6", but another 3" won't be very interesting. where are you located? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithinala Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 This shifts most of the major snow south of TN - so I'm not really happy with the 12Z run. The cold doesn't seem to be as strong either. We'll see what 0Z brings. I'll accept 6", but another 3" won't be very interesting. aren't we picky...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 This shifts most of the major snow south of TN - so I'm not really happy with the 12Z run. The cold doesn't seem to be as strong either. We'll see what 0Z brings. I'll accept 6", but another 3" won't be very interesting. It is very unwise to cancel a storm for your area off of one run of the GFS, Which will change on the next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Love the run (wish I could take it to the bank now). Temps will be cold a few days before the event to help with accumulations. Also upper air temps may also be cold enough to help increase ratios. So the large area of > .25 liquid could possible provide areas of around 5" snow; > .5 liquid maybe upwards of 8” snow. **But not really getting excited yet, just having fun with this run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 aren't we picky...lol I'm in Knoxville. I could be picky, sure, but we've had a half dozen 3" snows so it would be nice to see something that's actually unusual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 It is very unwise to cancel a storm for your area off of one run of the GFS, Which will change on the next run. I'm not canceling a storm based on it. That's why I said I was going to see what the 0Z brings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I'm in Knoxville. I could be picky, sure, but we've had a half dozen 3" snows so it would be nice to see something that's actually unusual. cool, you might want to update your profile so people know where you are located Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I'm not canceling a storm based on it. That's why I said I was going to see what the 0Z brings. There are other models too. And some of thos have been farther west than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Can we say trifecta? http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2011/02/04/12/GFS_3_2011020412_F144_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png This is almost identical to two other previous storms this winter. I'm guessing though that without the same pattern that lead to those other two storms that it'll be somewhat different. 3-4" is just not very unusual or remarkable for TYS, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 cool, you might want to update your profile so people know where you are located Done and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 There are other models too. And some of thos have been farther west than the GFS. That's true - that's why I gave this a 25% chance of actually occurring in a previous post. Again, at this range, that's as comfortable as I'm willing to go. 3" would be pretty likely, 6" less likely. 6" is also as high as I'd go with my area given the current setup - unless anything changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 Yep that is what I'm thinking, we will have to sacrifice the higher QPF for colder temperatures. I'll be perfectly happy with a nice 3 -5 inch snow storm though. Like we always keep in mind...we are seeing a better trend with temps and climo. We can worry about QPF later. Fo now I am lovin it! Also, with the colder temps, we have better snow growth postential. Next week is setting up to be quite wintry, if the GFS comes to fruition. Looks like we have a shot at some Tuesday action before the main system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Can we say trifecta? http://www.twisterda...WIN_SURFACE.png This is almost identical to two other previous storms this winter. I'm guessing though that without the same pattern that lead to those other two storms that it'll be somewhat different. 3-4" is just not very unusual or remarkable for TYS, though. While that map has my house in the sweet spot, It will change on every run. The last thing that needs to be worried about right now is qpf amounts and snowfall maps. Although they are the "sexy" thing to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 While that map has my house in the sweet spot, It will change on every run. The last thing that needs to be worried about right now is qpf amounts and snowfall maps. Although they are the "sexy" thing to look at. Exactly. It's the stuff in the showroom you probably will never drive or own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 the big difference this run is the orientation of the Polar vortex in Canada. it is elongated west to east from SE Canada and there is essentially -NAO ridging now. More than likely this run was a blip. 12z GFS hr 132 Resized to 85% (was 1024 x 768) - Click image to enlarge vs. 00z 144 Resized to 85% (was 1024 x 768) - Click image to enlarge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach B Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I'm in Knoxville. I could be picky, sure, but we've had a half dozen 3" snows so it would be nice to see something that's actually unusual. You are not alone. Lots of Nashville/Knoxville folks are tired of the nickle and dime events. Especially when one sees all of the historic stoms and totals of the last two winters in other places. Me, after the snow drought of the last 20 years I get excited about every little inch. 12Z GFS looks like a southern slider to me. For my location thats the best bet for accums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 the big difference this run is the orientation of the Polar vortex in Canada. it is elongated west to east from SE Canada and there is essentially -NAO ridging now. More than likely this run was a blip. 12z GFS hr 132 Resized to 85% (was 1024 x 768) - Click image to enlarge vs. 00z 144 Resized to 85% (was 1024 x 768) - Click image to enlarge Good eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Brick, et al: this run is snowy for RDU.... lol. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Euro trend west and the GFS continue to trend east.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 The CMC at 144 has a low in Central Tenn. Really digs the trough far into the southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 12z UKMet has a sub 1005 mb sfc low in SW GA at 144. Not as far south as the GFS, but south of the UKMet's previous 2 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Ukmet is extremely similar to the GFS at day 5 and 6. The GGEM is much further inland, and would be rain for most of the Southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 the big difference this run is the orientation of the Polar vortex in Canada. it is elongated west to east from SE Canada and there is essentially -NAO ridging now. More than likely this run was a blip. Not really unusual to see at this range, considering the orientation of the vortex is governed by among other things internal processes which are difficult to predict. This run has a double barrel setup with two lows, one in southern Greenland and the other in the N ATL. That aid in orientating the PV wnw - ese compared to n-s on previous runs. Impossible to say whether it is a blip or not, given the t-step. We see it often with PV's in SE Canada, as the axis, whether it be N-S, or NW-SE waffles considerably run-to-run and leads to greater than normal variability in the solutions. There is a trend over the past 24hrs, towards a weaker storm, and that in itself would argue for a more southern track given the lack of interaction between the streams and resulting bomb. I am never a fan of extreme solutions in the med-range, as they almost never verify. 972 parked over the Cape does not happen very often, despite what the guidance shows 5+ days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 12z GFS Ensemble mean is much less amplified vs 0z. This would give a little more weight to the operational run which indicates a "southern slider" 12z mean 0z ensemble mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Not really unusual to see at this range, considering the orientation of the vortex is governed by internal processes which are difficult to predict. We see it often with PV's in SE Canada, as the axis, whether it be N-S, or NW-SE waffles considerably run-to-run and leads to greater than normal variability in the solutions. There is a trend over the past 24hrs, towards a weaker storm, and that in itself would argue for a more southern track given the lack of interaction between the streams and resulting bomb. I am never a fan of extreme solutions in the med-range, as they almost never verify. 972 parked over the Cape does not happen very often, despite what the guidance shows 5+ days out. This is a great point. How many times does a 144-168 hour phase work out? Almost never. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 While not as robust a system, the GFS is now printing -1F for Birmingham next Saturday morning with scattered sub-zero temps across MS/AL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 wouldnt you go with the two models ukmet and gfs saying the same thing instead of the ggem? Ukmet is extremely similar to the GFS at day 5 and 6. The GGEM is much further inland, and would be rain for most of the Southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 This is a great point. How many times does a 144-168 hour phase work out? Almost never. With a MECS/HECS quite often. For your run of the mill snowstorm, not so much. I strongly feel that the models are not even close at this point to depicting the ultimate final outcome. Only 20+ more GFS runs to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Those look very nice indeed.... 12z GFS Ensemble mean is much less amplified vs 0z. This would give a little more weight to the operational run which indicates a "southern slider" 12z mean 0z ensemble mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 wouldnt you go with the two models ukmet and gfs saying the same thing instead of the ggem? I wouldn't say yet. Usually I go by trends, and its still too early to get a trend really. The stronger the s/w is probably the more inland and n/w it tracks. The GFS is only a moderate wave and doesn't buckle the flow much, hence just a southern slider that rounds the long wave trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Ukmet is extremely similar to the GFS at day 5 and 6. The GGEM is much further inland, and would be rain for most of the Southeast. The GGEM is farther north with the polar vortex compared to the GFS. Don't tell me the home country has secret ingest data and a better handle on the vortex positioning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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