February 8-12 model discussion

[FoothillsNC]

Yep. Euro looks like a pretty dry typical cold front. Maybe a few flurries, but that's it. In fact, doesn't look as brutally cold following the frontal passage as the past few runs. Is the Euro stepping back (yet again) from a major artic outbreak?

I'm still not very impressed with this system or our chances in the coming weeks without blocking, but I would love to be pleasantly surprised. Carry on.

looks like the first system is laying down the cold air. The next system at 156 hours is digging nicely toward West Texas and starts the snow around 168 hours across the Deep South. At 186 hours theres a 1012 low in the Gulf off NEW and pretty good precip coverage. Snow in CAE to most of northern 2/3 of GA , Al, MS and much of LA and eastern Tex, and covers TN in light snow as well. At 192, the low is 1004 off SAV and central GA really got hammered good, but are close to the transition. Most of n. 2/3 of GA is snow, and Alabama, western 1/2 of SC and much of NC except warming at the coastal Plain. At 198, the low is bombing (maybe) off HAT and eastern Carolinas are changing to snow.

Classic Southeast Winter storm track is the thing to keep in mind, not specific QPF now.

[burgertime]

The Euro says congrats eastern NC with over a foot of snow.

[Lookout]

Yep hard to take the Euro to seriously with just one run. But just on the weenie train I'll gladly trade the GFS solution for what the Euro is showing.

Well the good news is both models are showing a snow threat. They don't agree with how we get there but none the less they both have at least some snow over the southeast.

[superjames1992]

Euro however develops a wave behind the front. At 180 hours, there is 0.10 to 0.25 amounts in the form of snow across la, ms, ar, and east tx. Temps over the southeast are -4 to -8.

At 186 hours, low is southeast of La in the gulf, snow over ms, al, and la and moving into georgia. Plenty cold over the southeast..0c in south ga, 850s -4 to -8 again over the interior.

192, major winter storm for the southeast. 0.25 to 0.50 over ga 0.10 to 0.25 in the carolinas. Low crosses northern florida and redeveloping southeast of savannah

I'm going to pull a Brick here. These storms are always 1+ week away. When they get closer, they fall apart then the models start teasing us with something way far out past 150 hours.

Oh well, I'm still not giving up on the upcoming snow threat regardless just yet.

[burgertime]

Well the good news is both models are showing a snow threat. They don't agree with how we get there but none the less they both have at least some snow over the southeast.

Yep this run of the Euro is really going to kick us in the pants and get our hopes up. Now a few runs and the Euro is on board? Time to get on the bus.

[RaleighWx]

New Euro has a very strong vortex in eastern Canada which keeps things supressed enough to pop a major winter storm in the southeast day 7-9. If we have that major vortex there dont need a 50/50 low.

So the GFS and ECMWF are keying on different energy. Main point is that the arctic front should slide through Tuesday or so, and it wouldnt be shocking to see a wave of low pressure form on this front sometime mid to late next week and bring a wintry threat.

[Cheeznado]

Please do not ask for IMBY totals for this run- it is too far out for that kind of foolishness. This will change 10 more times.

[Lookout]

I'm going to pull a Brick here. These storms are always 1+ week away. When they get closer, they fall apart then the models start teasing us with something way far out past 150 hours.

Oh well, I'm still not giving up on the upcoming snow threat regardless just yet.

Yeah, it's a shame it's another 1 week away storm but I wouldn't be so quick to write it off as fantasy since both models show a lot of arctic air and both models show a digging shortwave giving us some fun. The euro digs it much more to the southwest in the rockies and is slower, while the gfs sky rockets it southeast. It's interesting that the 06z gfs and the 12z euro look similar with this feature, except the gfs is a full 24 hours faster than the euro.

Regardless, they both show it to some degree and considering how far off it is, that's the best you can ask for at this point.

[WeatherNC]

at 198, low is rapidly deepening off the nc coast. 0.50 to 1.00 amounts in the coastal plain with another 0.10 from macon to greensboro.

And of course after I open the trap about the EC not looking like the global at 168, it pops the storm at 192, the 50-50 in the N ATL is another monster this run, <950mb, and you can see the influence it has on the heights just east of Greenland, and the PV in Canada between 168 and 192 hrs. Setup sure has potential, and once we get our weekend RN maker out of here and starting to bomb out on its way to getting locked up, this could be one we see coming at a longer range compared to most.

[burgertime]

Please do not ask for IMBY totals for this run- it is too far out for that kind of foolishness. This will change 10 more times.

Yea verbatim the Euro looks funky on sfc temps for my area and west...like some sort of reverse wedge thing going on in the CAD areas. So looking at it now is just for pure fun.

[BullCityWx]

Please do not ask for IMBY totals for this run- it is too far out for that kind of foolishness. This will change 10 more times.

Well, there goes MY plans for this aftn.

[Lookout]

Yea verbatim the Euro looks funky on sfc temps for my area and west...like some sort of reverse wedge thing going on in the CAD areas. So looking at it now is just for pure fun.

Not that it means much at this point but I'm assuming you are talking about the subfreezing temps in eastern nc? That is just in response to the precip at the time while areas further west are drying out and naturally are warmer. I don't see anything strange about it.

[NCStateMMY]

The Euro says congrats eastern NC with over a foot of snow.

Not holding my breath, certainly with the track record of the models this season. A repeat or improvement on the Christmas strom would be great. Still look at my pics from the storm and daydream sometimes.

Though, with it looking like a period of mild weather preceeding this possibility, ground temps could seriously cut down on any potential accumulation. Even if it is rain, we need it. Got a garden to plant in a few weeks.

[FoothillsNC]

Interesting pattern and has been showing up afew days now. We're at the climo time of year for systems to take their lowest possible patth south, even without a block, all we need is the PNA to be tall, something that still really hasn't happened much if any yet. There's another threat of systems topping the ridge out west and if the flow is supressed with next weeks storm bombing off eastern Canada that will help us tremendously to keep it south from cutting too far north. Just possibilities for now.

[burgertime]

Not that it means much at this point but I'm assuming you are talking about the subfreezing temps in eastern nc? That is just in response to the precip at the time while areas further west are drying out and naturally are warmer. I don't see anything strange about it.

I guess I wasn't taking into account the time of day, so it seemed odd to see it do that much of a warm up......and just the way it looks on the models is just odd to me. I knew it would be colder with the amount of precip but given that it would be in the middle of the afternoon and with what you said it's pretty obvious.

[Cheeznado]

One thing all the models agree on is a really large anomalous ridge in the EPAC- so the idea of a strong short wave digging into the SW or central US seems reasonable. Where this ends up and also how much cold air gets here with the previous system is a huge question mark. Someone in the eastern 1/2 of the country will get a winter event in a week or so- that seems inevitable given the amplification of the long-wave ridge/trough, I agree this needs to be watched but anything is possible at this point from all rain to a pretty good winter event. More sleepless nights watching the 00Z Euro come out (I work the graveyard shift so no big deal for me )

[Lookout]

Interesting pattern and has been showing up afew days now. We're at the climo time of year for systems to take their lowest possible patth south, even without a block, all we need is the PNA to be tall, something that still really hasn't happened much if any yet. There's another threat of systems topping the ridge out west and if the flow is supressed with next weeks storm bombing off eastern Canada that will help us tremendously to keep it south from cutting too far north. Just possibilities for now.

Euro is cold right through day 10 from the rockies eastward due to it being more amplified with the west coast/eastern pacific ridge. Mr high country might want to recheck his "analysis"

[Rankin5150]

New Euro has a very strong vortex in eastern Canada which keeps things supressed enough to pop a major winter storm in the southeast day 7-9. If we have that major vortex there dont need a 50/50 low.

So the GFS and ECMWF are keying on different energy. Main point is that the arctic front should slide through Tuesday or so, and it wouldnt be shocking to see a wave of low pressure form on this front sometime mid to late next week and bring a wintry threat.

When we see Raliegh, Cheez and Foothills chiming in, then the mojo is coming back. This will change a ga-zillion times, but at least we have some chess pieces in place.

[BullCityWx]

The GFS drops us through the 20's into the teens during the event at 156-168.

[superjames1992]

The GFS drops us through the 20's into the teens during the event at 156-168.

The snowfall ratios would be sick it appeared to me. Of course, the chance of that actually verifying are 0.000001%, but it's fun to look at.

[BullCityWx]

The snowfall rates would be sick it appeared to me. Of course, the chance of that actually verifying are 0.000001%, but it's fun to look at.

Yeah, bufkit yielded 18:1-21:1 ratios for KCLT.

[Cheeznado]

This GFS ensemble snapshot at 162 hrs illustrates the extreme difficulty in pinning down details:

I expect that the 12Z Euro ensembles will show similar large spread.

[Lookout]

This GFS ensemble snapshot at 162 hrs illustrates the extreme difficulty in pinning down details:

I expect that the 12Z Euro ensembles will show similar large spread.

Interesting take from hpc

THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER

CAMP SPRINGS, MD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

208 PM EST WED FEB 02 2011

VALID 12Z SAT FEB 05 2011 - 12Z WED FEB 09 2011

AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE JUST OFFSHORE THE WEST COAST COMBINED WITH A

POLAR VORTEX POSITION IN NUNAVUT WILL ALLOW FOR A POSITIVELY

TILTED TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA INTO THE SOUTHERN

ROCKIES. THE GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON THIS IDEA...WHICH

CLOSELY MATCHES THE CURRENT PATTERN THE UNITED STATES HAS

TRANSITIONED INTO DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SHOULD

CONTINUE TO ALLOW SURFACE LOWS TO MOVE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO UP

INTO THE TENNESSEE/UPPER OHIO VALLEY BEFORE COASTAL REDEVELOPMENT

TAKES OVER EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN WEDGE. EARLY IN THE

PERIOD...THE MODELS WHICH MOST CLOSELY MATCH THIS IDEA ARE THE 06Z

GFS/00Z UKMET. LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE MODEL THAT MOST CLOSELY

MATCHES THIS IDEA IS THE 00Z CANADIAN...WITH THE 00Z GFS A CLOSE

SECOND.

FOR THE PRESSURES AND 500 HPA HEIGHTS...USED A COMPROMISE OF THE

06Z GFS/00Z UKMET/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN INTO MONDAY MORNING

BEFORE SWITCHING TO A 00Z CANADIAN/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN

COMPROMISE THEREAFTER...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO MOVE LOW

PRESSURE AREAS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES...EAST...AND NORTHERN ATLANTIC

INTO AREAS WITH THE BEST 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING.

IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THE LOW PROGRESSION THROUGH THE EAST LATE IN

THE PERIOD IS DEPICTED TOO QUICK AS THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE

MORE THAN FIVE DAYS INTO THE FUTURE WAS 12-24 HOURS TOO QUICK WITH

THE DECEMBER 26 CYCLONE...JANUARY 26-27 CYCLONE...AND THE CURRENT

GROUNDHOG DAY CYCLONE MOVING THROUGH THE EAST...WHOSE VERIFIED

SOLUTIONS WERE EITHER ALONG OR OUTSIDE THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE

GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SPREAD SIX TO SEVEN DAYS INTO THE FUTURE. THE

LAST TWO CASES ARE EITHER DUE TO TOO MUCH PHASING BETWEEN THE

SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM SEEN IN THE GLOBAL MODELS AT THAT

TIME RANGE...OR AMPLIFICATION OF THE WRONG /PRECEDING/ SOUTHERN

STREAM SHORTWAVE. THIS IS THE REASON WHY THE DETERMINISTIC 12Z

UKMET/12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF WERE NOT TRUSTED BEYOND DAY 5...OTHER THAN

THEIR UNUSUAL-LOOKING CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES-WIDE UPPER TROUGH

LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE 12Z CANADIAN SHOWS AN EVEN SLOWER

SOLUTION WITH THE EASTERN SYSTEM.

[GaWx]

Folks,

Taken literally, the 12Z Euro has what hasn't happened since 2/1895, a 2nd major snow (3.5"+), via 0.45" qpf, for KATL in one season. Could we finally break that streak? Well, we just had the first major KATL snow in a moderate to strong La Nina since 2/1894. So, why not?

[Brick Tamland]

New Euro has a very strong vortex in eastern Canada which keeps things supressed enough to pop a major winter storm in the southeast day 7-9. If we have that major vortex there dont need a 50/50 low.

So the GFS and ECMWF are keying on different energy. Main point is that the arctic front should slide through Tuesday or so, and it wouldnt be shocking to see a wave of low pressure form on this front sometime mid to late next week and bring a wintry threat.

The problem is it is 7 - 9 days out. It just never seems to happen when it shows a great potential that far away.

[Weather Czar]

The problem is it is 7 - 9 days out. It just never seems to happen when it shows a great potential that far away.

Your Feb forecast is in trouble.

[Brick Tamland]

Your Feb forecast is in trouble.

We'll see. So far the models have been in fantasy island since January when it comes to 7 to 10 days out.

[MotoWeatherman]

We'll see. So far the models have been in fantasy island since January when it comes to 7 to 10 days out.

VERY true!

[chapelhillwx]

Folks,

Taken literally, the 12Z Euro has what hasn't happened since 2/1895, a 2nd major snow (3.5"+), via 0.45" qpf, for KATL in one season. Could we finally break that streak? Well, we just had the first major KATL snow in a moderate to strong La Nina since 2/1894. So, why not?

I'm honestly surprised that ATL doesn't get repeat major snows more often.

[RaleighWx]

The problem is it is 7 - 9 days out. It just never seems to happen when it shows a great potential that far away.

7-9 days out is always a tough period for models to forecast, that is just how it is.

What you have to look at is not model output verbatim, but the overall pattern the model is showing. The models are certainly not showing a perfect pattern for a southeast snowstorm, but it isnt like just one model and one run showed a storm. The GFS and ECMWF are both showing wintry threats in the day 6-9 range, but are different with how they handle a s/w diving down the backside of the trough. The GFS is much quicker and the ECMWF much slower, but with the arctic front cleared of the region either way it would be snow. The Canadian is not too different than the Euro at hour 168 but it seems to split the energy a bit and keys more on the lead wave and is close to wintry weather but the wave is too far north.

The bottom line is that if you put all your faith in one model solution than yeah you are going to be disappointed. But if you recognize the pattern and a model simulted storm makes sense given the pattern, and the solution hold for several runs in a row and other models start to agree then you get excited. I have been following things long enough to know when and when not to get excited. My interest is piqued, but I am not staying up for model runs quite yet lol.