tnweathernut Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 this storm next week will be gulf coast up eastern seaboard, the strong cold air will keep this storm south is what i'm seeing. i respectfully disagree in that I have seen many many storms simply push air masses around. This track can be from the gulf/southern plains up into Kentucky or gulf to carolinas and anywhere in between at this point. It's all about the 500 level and watching to see how far west this s/w comes in. Further west into America, further west out of the gulf - simple physics. IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 yep march of 1993 predicted 6 to 8 inches of snow for wnc area just that friday morning and that evening they said 2-3 feet with blizzard conditiions and man it was a blizzard i'll never forget with 2 1/2 feet of snow That's not the whole story. They were aware that something was going to happen, but they had no idea of the degree that it happened. Accumulation forecasts about 24-48 hrs before the event were severely underdone. Case in point: Meridian, MS (where I was living at the time) had only a forecast of a dusting of snow less than 12 hours from the event. I remember the transition from Winter Weather Advisory to Winter Storm Warning to Heavy Snow Warning as the snow was falling over the course of just a few hours. BHX hadn't forecasted the 17" they got either. There are videos on Youtube where James Spann was very surprised at how much snow was actually going to fall at the last minute. They knew there was going to be some snow, but they certainly didn't forecast over a foot with near blizzard conditions and thunder 24 hours before the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 That's not the whole story. They were aware that something was going to happen, but they had no idea of the degree that it happened. Accumulation forecasts about 24-48 hrs before the event were severely underdone. Case in point: Meridian, MS (where I was living at the time) had only a forecast of a dusting of snow less than 12 hours from the event. I remember the transition from Winter Weather Advisory to Winter Storm Warning to Heavy Snow Warning as the snow was falling over the course of just a few hours. BHX hadn't forecasted the 17" they got either. There are videos on Youtube where James Spann was very surprised at how much snow was actually going to fall at the last minute. They knew there was going to be some snow, but they certainly didn't forecast over a foot with near blizzard conditions and thunder 24 hours before the event. Agree and disagree - agree that the explosive deepening caused the low to be further west, putting you in the heavy snow for that storm and that it was a surprise with how much ended up falling, but disagree in that the storm was remarkably well forecast from 5 days out. Models were showing a BOMB and largely stuck with it all the way to game time. You benefited on the heavy snow part, while people in the carolinas caught the rain instead of heavy snow. just my recollection though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 i respectfully disagree in that I have seen many many storms simply push air masses around. This track can be from the gulf/southern plains up into Kentucky or gulf to carolinas and anywhere in between at this point. It's all about the 500 level and watching to see how far west this s/w comes in. Further west into America, further west out of the gulf - simple physics. IMHO If I were you, I would really like where I'm sitting on this one! You guys have been sideswiped enough, but this might be your storm. Not that I would mind a south and east trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 If I were you, I would really like where I'm sitting on this one! You guys have been sideswiped enough, but this might be your storm. Not that I would mind a south and east trend Sad thing is, we could probably both use a southeast trend this far out........ I hope it's our storm. It's sad to say it's been a frustrating winter having snow on the ground a lot and cold temps, but it's just been the nickle and dimers. It's been 15 years since a good snow here in KTRI - way too long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 i respectfully disagree in that I have seen many many storms simply push air masses around. This track can be from the gulf/southern plains up into Kentucky or gulf to carolinas and anywhere in between at this point. It's all about the 500 level and watching to see how far west this s/w comes in. Further west into America, further west out of the gulf - simple physics. IMHO Looks like that energy is coming in further west on the 12z @99 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 12z looks pretty good at 96. let's see where it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 One thing that may help is the low that's absolutely bombing in the Atlantic. If that can really crank, it will keep the heights lower across the eastern seaboard as has been mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 One thing that may help is the low that's absolutely bombing in the Atlantic. If that can really crank, it will keep the heights lower across the eastern seaboard as has been mentioned. Exactly along with a big arctic high in the ohio valley instead of the Rio grand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Looks like nice overrunning setting up pretty early over the TN valley. Would be a nice way to start this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 12z looks pretty good at 96. let's see where it goes. Yep out to 120 it has potential for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Looks like nice overrunning setting up pretty early over the TN valley. Would be a nice way to start this. Gfs is bringing plent of Cold before the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 This run is really going to be threading the needle. 850's are colder across the SE and the storm is not quite as strong as the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 @135 looks like snow from ATL to CLT and points north...though in NC it's light so would probably be more flizzard action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 @138 ATL is getting hit good with snow...def. cold enough there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Gfs really kills the s/w as it moves east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Really good run for snow lovers...though it's kind of light in NC...probably CLT west, GSP and ATL would be the big winners out to 141. Maybe 3 - 5 per this run in WNC and ATL 4 -8? Hard to tell but certainly a GOOD run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Looks like gfs is stronger and further west with the low off the east coast which is probably helping to suppress the system more. Hopefully that actually happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Gfs really kills the s/w as it moves east. Yea, not nearly as much QPF this run but wouldn't that help for folks around my area to stop all the WAA if that low was really wound up? It also looks like as the low transfers it really hurts precip in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 The 12z GFS is much better for snow in general in the southeast. The storm is weaker sure, but the track is better. I look forward to the other guidance, as I said in my column this morning it is just too early to write this one off yet, despite the warmer runs yesterday and overnight. http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-raleigh/sleet-changes-to-rain-today-another-storm-for-next-week Had a nice slushy sleet accumulation this morning for a while at my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Really good run for snow lovers...though it's kind of light in NC...probably CLT west, GSP and ATL would be the big winners out to 141. Maybe 3 - 5 per this run in WNC and ATL 4 -8? Hard to tell but certainly a GOOD run. A more southern and colder run. As long as its not a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 i think the cold air coming is just strong enough to keep storm along the gulf coast and up the coast. A more southern and colder run. As long as its not a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Almost a perfect track for the SE as a whole, but it lacks continuity with previous runs, 12 and 0z for example are way off at H5 with this vort, but a definite step in the right direction. We do not need, or really want a <1000mb low with this setup as the track would likely be inland given the interaction of the streams, as seen on previous GFS runs and the EC. Yesterday was a step in the wrong direction, today will hopefully be one in the right, and so on... This solution is not totally out to lunch, as a couple of the individual members have been showing a weak southern slider, just did not expect to see it show up on the op in such an extreme considering what happened with the 0z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 not bad... Looks like this would be all snow for north GA per the GFS. I know way to early to look at QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 accu weather just said models will be all over the place with this storm but everything they see it will form in the gulf and head around the bin off the ga/sc coast up the coast to the northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Folks, The 12z gfs gives Atl-Ahn a major snowfall! It gives them ~3-4". Stay tuned, folks! I'm certainly not going to get my hopes up much on this run, especially because the event would still be six days out. However, at least we know that climo is on our side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 The 12z GFS is much better for snow in general in the southeast. The storm is weaker sure, but the track is better. I look forward to the other guidance, as I said in my column this morning it is just too early to write this one off yet, despite the warmer runs yesterday and overnight. http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-raleigh/sleet-changes-to-rain-today-another-storm-for-next-week Had a nice slushy sleet accumulation this morning for a while at my house. Yep always better to be cold enough then right on the edge! Thanks for the update! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 This was a much improved look on the 12z GFS, with better blocking flow over the Great Lakes on the south side of the polar vortex over Hudson Bay, probably attributed to luck as much as anything with the timing of the shortwaves moving through that area...nevertheless, this is the type of favorable timing that will have to occur to make this work. Also, we will probably have to live with a weaker storm like shown on the GFS in order to keep it cold enough for a lot of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 This was a much improved look on the 12z GFS, with better blocking flow over the Great Lakes on the south side of the polar vortex over Hudson Bay, probably attributed to luck as much as anything with the timing of the shortwaves moving through that area...nevertheless, this is the type of favorable timing that will have to occur to make this work. Also, we will probably have to live with a weaker storm like shown on the GFS in order to keep it cold enough for a lot of us. Yep that is what I'm thinking, we will have to sacrifice the higher QPF for colder temperatures. I'll be perfectly happy with a nice 3 -5 inch snow storm though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 This shifts most of the major snow south of TN - so I'm not really happy with the 12Z run. The cold doesn't seem to be as strong either. We'll see what 0Z brings. I'll accept 6", but another 3" won't be very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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