valkhorn Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Too bad the gfs is likely full of crap... the track of the low is just not optimal for the amount of cold air it depicts. If the surface low were to track that track, verbatim there would be a lot more WAA than it shows. Agreed... The euro gives us prob the coldest readings of the season, although its nowhere near as intense as the GFS. It seems pretty transient too and no -NAO forms. In fact by 240 hours, the southeast ridge is really starting to flex again. Overall, not a good run if you are a snow lover. If there's anything we know for sure, neither the Euro nor the GFS is going to be 100% accurate at this range. However, if we manage to hit 0 in Knoxville and get 6" of snow, that will be more than we've gotten in at least 10 or 15 years. I do think that's plausible for East TN in the valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 If there's anything we know for sure, neither the Euro nor the GFS is going to be 100% accurate at this range. However, if we manage to hit 0 in Knoxville and get 6" of snow, that will be more than we've gotten in at least 10 or 15 years. I do think that's plausible for East TN in the valley. I agree... neither the Euro or GFS is right... because they both still have some trending inland to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I agree... neither the Euro or GFS is right... because they both still have some trending inland to do. If everyone gets shafted, then that makes me feel better. However, if we get another system that brings decent snow to the Smokys, Chattanooga, the Cumberland Plateau, and leaves the Valley with half an inch, I won't be as happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 If everyone gets shafted, then that makes me feel better. However, if we get another system that brings decent snow to the Smokys, Chattanooga, the Cumberland Plateau, and leaves the Valley with half an inch, I won't be as happy. I'd rather have somebody get in on the action in the Southeast... make things more interesting to follow. Plus the midwest already had their fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I'd rather have somebody get in on the action in the Southeast... make things more interesting to follow. Plus the midwest already had their fun AVL has had a few really good snows just in the past two years. Knox has been shafted since about 1996. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 If everyone gets shafted, then that makes me feel better. However, if we get another system that brings decent snow to the Smokys, Chattanooga, the Cumberland Plateau, and leaves the Valley with half an inch, I won't be as happy. FYI..... 6. Dont begrudge other people their events, even if they are less likely to get it than you climatologically speaking. That's what they do in the other regions and we dont do that here. Never have, never will. Read this, it will help... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithinala Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 FYI..... Read this, it will help... http://www.americanw...ting-etiquette/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 FYI..... Read this, it will help... http://www.americanw...ting-etiquette/ Doh. I've lurked here for ages so maybe I'll be the first person to start observing this rule? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I can't read the graphics on my BB reb. Is that the 06z gfs?? BTW Maryville is one of my favorite places. Spent a lot of time at Maryville college (and thus the smokies). I was a hair away from going there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I can't read the graphics on my BB reb. Is that the 06z gfs?? BTW Maryville is one of my favorite places. Spent a lot of time at Maryville college (and thus the smokies). I was a hair away from going there too. Yep that looks like the 6z snow map. All these runs of the GFS literally have me seeing and smelling the snow just not in MBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I can't read the graphics on my BB reb. Is that the 06z gfs?? BTW Maryville is one of my favorite places. Spent a lot of time at Maryville college (and thus the smokies). I was a hair away from going there too. yes it is the 6z snowfall accums...similar to 0z, showing a tn special. Maryville is a nice little town. I live about 15 miles from the GSMNP entrance, so i can chase snow when we dont get it down in the valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I can't read the graphics on my BB reb. Is that the 06z gfs?? BTW Maryville is one of my favorite places. Spent a lot of time at Maryville college (and thus the smokies). I was a hair away from going there too. Two of my best friends went to college there (I went to UT). We lived in a house on Maple Street. But that was back in 79 maybe? Sorry, off topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Talk about different GFS has me below freezing the entire event all snow. Euro has my temps 37-48 during the event. Bad as I hate to say it, my money is on the Euro ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 the Euro and GFS are pretty far apart. I think if the eastern Canadian storm forms next week, then the next storm will be forced south, but theres a higher chance than not the storm in e. Canada won't be that strong, like seen on the Euro a couple runs ago or last nights GFS. That would open the door for the next system to track inland and possibly well inland west of the Apps. Today's runs should bring the system into more agreement one way or the other. We need a neg. NAO or a strong blocking mechanism or split flow usually to get snow here and usually PNA alone doesn't give the right timing, so I'm not too optimistic on this system staying so far south yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Talk about different GFS has me below freezing the entire event all snow. Euro has my temps 37-48 during the event. Bad as I hate to say it, my money is on the Euro ! Yep.... this is the Dr. No I remember from days of old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 the Euro and GFS are pretty far apart. I think if the eastern Canadian storm forms next week, then the next storm will be forced south, but theres a higher chance than not the storm in e. Canada won't be that strong, like seen on the Euro a couple runs ago or last nights GFS. That would open the door for the next system to track inland and possibly well inland west of the Apps. Today's runs should bring the system into more agreement one way or the other. We need a neg. NAO or a strong blocking mechanism or split flow usually to get snow here and usually PNA alone doesn't give the right timing, so I'm not too optimistic on this system staying so far south yet. Robert, Why is the current storm tracking up the east coast without any blocking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Robert, Why is the current storm tracking up the east coast without any blocking? Storms can move up the coast without blocking- they just don't produce snow, typically. Which is exactly what is happening now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I agree w/ what Robert said above. At this point I don't see the RDU area getting anything out of this one except some rain. The trends are in the wrong direction for us. It always seems that if the euro starts taking a western track it's a lock. Hopefully this won't go to far west and alteast get some of the good folks in the SE. One thing I am happy about is I can see the writing on the wall 6 days out instead of waiting 2 days before the storm then pulling the carpet out from under me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Appears to be an upcoming apps runner with a mountains mix until the wrap around upslope comes on the back end. Disappointed.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 06gfs COLD Let see if this happens.. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I agree w/ what Robert said above. At this point I don't see the RDU area getting anything out of this one except some rain. The trends are in the wrong direction for us. It always seems that if the euro starts taking a western track it's a lock. Hopefully this won't go to far west and alteast get some of the good folks in the SE. One thing I am happy about is I can see the writing on the wall 6 days out instead of waiting 2 days before the storm then pulling the carpet out from under me. Sounds like the same old song we've had here the last two winters. Models show potential for a good snow storm about a week out over and over again, but it very rarily happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Robert, Why is the current storm tracking up the east coast without any blocking? Its just a natural track for storms to move north after coming out of the Gulf. The longwave axis is far enough west to place the track on the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 06z GFS is printing very close to 0F next Friday morning for Birmingham. Yes, that's right. Zero degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Did anyone look at the ensembles last night? Curious if they were supporting their respective OP runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Did anyone look at the ensembles last night? Curious if they were supporting their respective OP runs. All ensemble means are east of the op. 6z gfs ensemble mean is close to its up run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 00z GFS Ens mean looked close to it's OP run...the 6z Ens mean however looked more south and east with the low track. The worst part might be when the Euro goes to lunch like it always does and gives us hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 00z GFS Ens mean looked close to it's OP run...the 6z Ens mean however looked more south and east with the low track. The worst part might be when the Euro goes to lunch like it always does and gives us hope. This current storm was a lakes cutter on a couple runs of the euro and cmc. Gfs won the battle with showing a coastal just no cold air. Plenty of arctic air coming in next week. its a different setup than this storm and of course the big euro fail of 2 weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Thanks for the ensemble info, good to know the ensembles still giving our se peeps some hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Wednesday: A slight chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 39. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Wednesday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Thursday: Partly sunny, with a high near 31. FFC mentions the snow word for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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