WeatherNC Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 What do us folks in central/eastern NC want to happen? Do we simply just want the Canadian vortex to sag further south and be further east? The guidance has been fairly consistent with the placement of the PV in Canada, somewhere around Coral Harbor, which is at the mouth of the Hudson Bay. Seeing a sig shift with such a strong and established feature at this range is highly unlikely, especially such a shift that would have major implications down here. I do not like where this vort is coming into CONUS, WA state. Normally around here we like to see it enter in ID or MT, and granted that is in the general sense as it is a function of many other elements to get a favorable end result. We want a weaker system at this point, one that does not wrap up as quick and gets shunted OTS before turning north. The fact a general agreement exists on this impacting the MA and NE is not favorable for central and eastern NC from a climo perspective. Not saying it can't impact us and those areas as well, but most times our SN storms skip the MA and sometimes come back to clip N NE. More separation between this vort and the energy coming in on the backside would also be a favorable trend, as the interaction lifts the first piece up instead of out, and bombs the storm. We are still a little less than 7 days out, and having a 95 track at this range means a small shift one way or another will have big implications, since we are not talking an Apps runner, at-least not atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 0z UKMet at 144...not a good look for here...parts of AR/TN, yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Canadian looks similar to UKMet - too far north / too warm for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 The Ocoee is going to be frozen solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 GGEM looks bad, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I can't believe this would ever verify Well, it did happen once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Well for some of us that are about to have mid 30's and 1"+ QPF tomorrow and then another repeat next week with temps in the single digits to follow we are all going to be begging for an early spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 Here is a portion of the AFD from NWS-GSP from Thursday afternoon: THE ROCKIES SYSTEM WILL LIKELY CARVE OUT INTO AN INCREASINGLY NEUTRAL TILT SRN STREAM WAVE OVER THE PLAINS ON WED. THE GFS IS FASTEST TO BRING THIS ENERGY INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON WED NIGHT...WHILE THE ECM HAS THE BEST SUPPORT ON THU. THE CANADIAN GEM APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH A SW FOUR CORNERS CUTOFF LOW THROUGH MID WEEK. THE GEFS MEAN IS A GOOD COMPROMISE ON TIMING AND AMPLITUDE AND THIS CONSENSUS SOLUTION WILL PLACE THE BEST POPS IN THE WED NIGHT/EARLY THU TIMEFRAME. THICKNESSES APPEAR TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY SNOW THROUGHOUT...BUT WILL KEEP POPS LIMITED TO THE LOW END CHANCE RANGE GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND NATURE OF THE SRN STREAM WAVE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 GFS is showing a triple phaser. Pretty extreme solution. It happens as a result of the huge ridge and displaced PV. I don't really see much a sub-tropical jet energy with the 00z gfs... just looks like a very amplified phase of the polar and arctic jet. Either way though its a pretty extreme solution and hard to believe at this time range. It has made me more interested in what the Euro will show though. Honestly, the only reason why this low stays suppressed is thanks to the first system amplifying so much at around 96 hours. The second system so quickly follows this first feature that the heights don't recover fast enough for the system to become a lakes cutter... will be interesting to see if the Euro shows something similar since it was much weaker with this first impulse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/cobb_gfs/gfs3_khky.dat Unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 http://www.meteor.ia...s/gfs3_khky.dat Unreal. Hey bro, do you have time to throw one out there for KCLT? TIA if you can. If not, totally understandable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Hey bro, do you have time to throw one out there for KCLT? TIA if you can. If not, totally understandable. KCLT gets nothing verbatim. http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/cobb_gfs/gfs3_kclt.dat KGSO gets 6.1". http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/cobb_gfs/gfs3_kgso.dat And KRDU gets 0.7". http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/cobb_gfs/gfs3_krdu.dat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 KCLT gets nothing verbatim. http://www.meteor.ia...s/gfs3_kclt.dat KGSO gets 6.1". http://www.meteor.ia...s/gfs3_kgso.dat And KRDU gets 0.7". http://www.meteor.ia...s/gfs3_krdu.dat Thanks SuperJames! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 http://www.meteor.ia...s/gfs3_khky.dat Unreal. Well "if" we can get a decent snowpack, the airmass the GFS wants to bring down is every bit as strong, if not stronger, than the one this past week that ravaged the midwest. Basically even though we have a +AO currently, all the cold air is suck in Canada. In fact, the 500mb heights have been the coldest right over the Canadian provinces. This stuff was suck over Siberia most of December and January, but now we have a chance to play with it in North American in February. All we need is a super strong +PNA (check if you believe the 00z GFS) and a powerful shortwave (also check) and it can easily bring down the Polar Vortex far enough south so we get sent to the icebox. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
polarexpress00 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Anyone got the euro info Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithinala Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Anyone got the euro info For real..where are the folks that have access to the maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Looks pretty amplified.... high seems to be sliding out.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Anyone got the euro info Apps runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Apps runner. Yep... its even further west than 12z... Extreme cold on the backside though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Apps runner. I'm firmly aboard the DGEX bandwagon now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
polarexpress00 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 long way to go. I amaze myself time and time again with my model watching. I can't help it, I am a weather junkie! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 GGEM looks bad, too. That's too far out for the GGEM to be of any use, in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 The positive to a more western track is that it maybe can hit the Asheville area hard. I'm going up to Asheville this weekend and going skiing on Saturday, so I'd love some fresh powder!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 The positive to a more western track is that it maybe can hit the Asheville area hard. I'm going up to Asheville this weekend and going skiing on Saturday, so I'd love some fresh powder!!! I'm pretty sure the track the 00z run depicts would also mean that Asheville ends up with rain too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Apps runner. That's what I want for East TN to do well. By the way, KTYS's buffkit is remarkable: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/cobb_gfs/gfs3_ktys.dat ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110208/1500Z 111 27003KT 26.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110208/1800Z 114 26003KT 33.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110208/2100Z 117 VRB02KT 34.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110209/0000Z 120 01004KT 28.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110209/0300Z 123 03005KT 27.3F SNOW 14:1| 0.1|| 0.1 0.008|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110209/0600Z 126 04005KT 27.3F SNOW 15:1| 0.3|| 0.4 0.020|| 0.03 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110209/0900Z 129 04005KT 27.5F SNOW 14:1| 0.3|| 0.7 0.024|| 0.05 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110209/1200Z 132 04006KT 27.5F SNOW 11:1| 0.5|| 1.2 0.043|| 0.09 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110209/1500Z 135 07003KT 30.0F SNOW 18:1| 2.5|| 3.7 0.142|| 0.24 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110209/1800Z 138 VRB02KT 32.9F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 3.7 0.205|| 0.44 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 81| 0| 19 110209/2100Z 141 10003KT 34.0F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 3.7 0.134|| 0.57 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 50| 0| 50 110210/0000Z 144 01004KT 32.4F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 3.7 0.240|| 0.81 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 86| 0| 14 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110210/0300Z 147 03004KT 31.6F SNOW 13:1| 4.4|| 8.1 0.327|| 1.14 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110210/0600Z 150 32006KT 28.8F SNOW 17:1| 3.7||11.8 0.224|| 1.37 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110210/0900Z 153 31008KT 20.8F SNOW 23:1| 1.9||13.7 0.083|| 1.45 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110210/1200Z 156 29006KT 14.7F SNOW 33:1| 1.0||14.8 0.031|| 1.48 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110210/1500Z 159 27007KT 7.7F 0:1| 0.0||14.8 0.000|| 1.48 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110210/1800Z 162 26009KT 8.8F 0:1| 0.0||14.8 0.000|| 1.48 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110210/2100Z 165 27010KT 7.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110211/0000Z 168 23007KT 2.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110211/0300Z 171 24007KT -0.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110211/0600Z 174 24007KT -2.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110211/0900Z 177 24006KT -7.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110211/1200Z 180 24005KT -12.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 ====================================================================================================================== Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I'm pretty sure the track the 00z run depicts would also mean that Asheville ends up with rain too On the GFS you get snow and a lot of it: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/cobb_gfs/gfs3_kavl.dat ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110209/0300Z 123 34005KT 26.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110209/0600Z 126 34003KT 28.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110209/0900Z 129 12003KT 28.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110209/1200Z 132 13005KT 28.4F SNOW 13:1| 0.1|| 0.1 0.008|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110209/1500Z 135 13006KT 28.4F SNOW 16:1| 0.3|| 0.4 0.020|| 0.03 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110209/1800Z 138 13006KT 29.1F SNOW 16:1| 0.5|| 0.9 0.031|| 0.06 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110209/2100Z 141 14006KT 27.1F SNOW 19:1| 1.9|| 2.8 0.098|| 0.16 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110210/0000Z 144 14005KT 25.7F SNOW 13:1| 2.7|| 5.5 0.209|| 0.37 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110210/0300Z 147 06003KT 25.7F SNOW 6:1| 1.6|| 7.1 0.256|| 0.62 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110210/0600Z 150 31005KT 27.3F SNOW 19:1| 5.5||12.6 0.287|| 0.91 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110210/0900Z 153 32009KT 27.3F SNOW 18:1| 1.8||14.4 0.098|| 1.01 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110210/1200Z 156 32014KT 16.5F 0:1| 0.0||14.4 0.000|| 1.01 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- Your winning ticket is the cold air and high ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I'm pretty sure the track the 00z run depicts would also mean that Asheville ends up with rain too I think we've got a better shot at the extreme cold shot than the snow event itself. There's not going to be much bare ground for that air to pass over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I think we've got a better shot at the extreme cold shot than the snow event itself. There's not going to be much bare ground for that air to pass over. Well you don't need a foot to get record lows, but it certainly helps. Just a few inches can help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 On the GFS you get snow and a lot of it: http://www.meteor.ia...s/gfs3_kavl.dat Your winning ticket is the cold air and high ratios. Too bad the gfs is likely full of crap... the track of the low is just not optimal for the amount of cold air it depicts. If the surface low were to track that track, verbatim there would be a lot more WAA than it shows. I think we've got a better shot at the extreme cold shot than the snow event itself. There's not going to be much bare ground for that air to pass over. Agreed... The euro gives us prob the coldest readings of the season, although its nowhere near as intense as the GFS. It seems pretty transient too and no -NAO forms. In fact by 240 hours, the southeast ridge is really starting to flex again. Overall, not a good run if you are a snow lover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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