BullCityWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Boy, it's really bringing the hammer with regards to the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithinala Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 00Z has the low running pretty much through middle MS, AL, GA... usually that means to warm up here in these parts, even with a weak low. I wouldnt really expect snow with a low traveling like that but the 00Z GFS gave it to us lol. Weak low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 00Z has the low running pretty much through middle MS, AL, GA... usually that means to warm up here in these parts, even with a weak low. I wouldnt really expect snow with a low traveling like that but the 00Z GFS gave it to us lol. Big arctic high coming down, plenty of cold air getting drawn into the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Not sure if anyone noticed but at 12z on Thursday, literally 95% of the US is at or below freezing (except Florida). I have never seen anything like that in my lifetime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 RUT-ROW Scroooby-DOOO the 0Z run of the GFS has our system back. Like Foothills keyed in last night (including what Allan-RWx patiently told us today) is that the models are trying to key in on all these waves dropping down. I like this run so far. There will be wind with that bad boy, if it were to verify. Fun week ahead. Thank God for the weekend, so I can see all you Pro's break this down! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Looks like this run has almost the entire state of NC west of I-95 just at or below zero at 180. Exceptional, insane cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Weak low? I'm not saying this one is weak. 1004MB isn't bad at all. I'm saying in a scenario where a low travels like that, I would expect even a weak low to push warmer air out ahead of it and screw us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Looks like this run has almost the entire state of NC west of I-95 just at or below zero at 180. Exceptional, insane cold. I can't believe this would ever verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I can't believe this would ever verify Yeah, but wow if it did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Holy s**t, is that -30 over the Tri Cities? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Look at this sounding for Nashville...you'd be hard pressed to ever find a colder sounding ever for them: Date: 7.5 day AVN valid 12Z FRI 11 FEB 11 Station: KBNA Latitude: 36.13 Longitude: -86.68 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SFC 1008 210 -25.4 -25.5 99 0.1 -25.5 284 7 247.2 247.2 247.2 248.4 0.48 1 1000 265 -23.8 -23.9 99 0.1 -23.8 288 11 249.4 249.5 249.4 250.8 0.55 2 950 641 -23.2 -24.1 93 0.8 -23.4 309 20 253.6 253.7 253.1 255.2 0.57 3 900 1035 -24.5 -29.5 63 5.0 -25.0 317 23 256.2 256.3 254.9 257.3 0.37 4 850 1453 -21.7 -35.1 29 13.4 -22.9 314 32 263.5 263.5 260.3 264.1 0.23 5 800 1902 -20.2 -37.6 20 17.4 -21.9 311 42 269.6 269.6 264.7 270.2 0.19 6 750 2379 -20.7 -40.1 16 19.5 -22.5 309 51 274.1 274.1 267.8 274.6 0.15 7 700 2889 -21.2 -46.2 9 25.0 -23.2 307 61 279.0 279.1 270.7 279.3 0.09 8 650 3435 -21.7 -50.7 5 29.0 -23.8 305 72 284.4 284.4 273.8 284.6 0.06 9 600 4022 -23.4 -49.3 7 25.8 -25.4 304 80 289.0 289.0 276.3 289.2 0.07 10 550 4654 -26.5 -45.8 14 19.3 -28.0 301 84 292.7 292.7 278.2 293.1 0.12 11 500 5338 -29.9 -45.6 20 15.7 -31.0 297 89 296.6 296.6 280.0 297.1 0.13 12 450 6081 -34.3 -49.9 19 15.6 -35.2 294 92 300.1 300.2 281.5 300.5 0.09 13 400 6896 -39.6 -55.7 16 16.1 -40.2 290 93 303.6 303.6 282.9 303.8 0.05 14 350 7799 -44.4 -58.9 18 14.5 -44.8 285 96 308.9 308.9 284.9 309.0 0.04 15 300 8824 -46.6 -60.6 19 14.0 -47.0 280 109 319.7 319.7 288.7 319.9 0.04 16 250 10029 -47.8 -62.6 17 14.8 -48.2 278 117 335.0 335.0 293.1 335.2 0.03 17 200 11500 -48.5 -66.7 10 18.1 -49.1 274 114 355.9 355.9 297.9 356.0 0.02 18 150 13366 -54.4 -72.9 8 18.6 -54.7 271 122 376.4 376.4 301.6 376.5 0.01 19 100 15922 -60.3 -82.7 4 22.3 -60.6 272 101 411.2 411.2 306.6 411.2 0.00 TRP 0 WND 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 ah beautiful, If only it could hold true lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 A 947mb low???? Geez! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 OMG...look at the sounding for the Tri-Cities at hour 180... http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbsnd.cgi?id=KTRI&mo=gfs_avn_us&pl=none&ft=7.5day&cu=latest&pt=parcel&size=640x480 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Sorry I had to take the puppy out but after looking at this better this would really be a rain to snow type of situation for RDU...I like this run a lot better than the 18z run though. Many more changes to come I'm sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 OMG...look at the sounding for the Tri-Cities at hour 180... http://vortex.plymou...el&size=640x480 Check out the one for BNA...even colder! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Pretty much the textbook definition of a bomb, drops from 992 - 972 mb in 6hrs, between 156 and 162. Almost identical in slp placement at 156 compared to the 12z run, around Norfolk. Not sure I buy that continuity given the UL changes, even early on in the run. That does tell us though that small changes in the system are having little effect on the ultimate track. I would like to see a little more separation between the first vort and energy coming in on the backside, as that would likely allow the low to slip further east given it would not be as wrapped up and turn poleward as quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Check out the one for BNA...even colder! even below 0 F in NW ATL burbs at that time..... wicked. http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbsnd.cgi?id=Kmge&mo=gfs_avn_us&pl=none&ft=7.5day&cu=latest&pt=parcel&size=640x480 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I've been a lurker here for a long time. I'm in the Knoxville area (elevation 1150ft.) and I can safely say the models are looking absolutely brutal. This is showing over a foot in my area: http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2011/02/04/00/GFS_3_2011020400_F156_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png And with temps around 5F - 15F after it it won't melt much: http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2011/02/04/00/GFS_3_2011020400_F162_TMPF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png The 12Z and 18Z models gave us lows of -15F after the snowpack. Seeing as how we haven't really gotten well below 0 since 1996, this would be extremely rare. It's not near our record low of -24F though, but I wonder how much colder it's going to trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I will never complain again if this were to verify. Needless to say, even .5 - .75" QPF would be a huge deal here. Good ratios would produce a top 10 storm here. Depicted could break the all time record. Nashville itself has not seen over 4.3" since 03. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Also, with the 0Z bringing us down to an 850mb temp of about -22C or so, we may be able to break some records if we get a good snowpack down. I just hope we don't get the shaft again and watch while Chattanooga gets all the good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithinala Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I'm not saying this one is weak. 1004MB isn't bad at all. I'm saying in a scenario where a low travels like that, I would expect even a weak low to push warmer air out ahead of it and screw us. Look again before you get burried...it's a monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Look again before you get burried...it's a monster. Huntsville and Chattanooga have gotten it great this past winter. It's Nasvhille-Knoxville-Asheville's turn Speaking of which, look at the cold coming down: http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2011/02/04/00/GFS_3_2011020400_F180_TMPF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png -10F in Knoxville is pretty brutal and hasn't happened since at least 1988 (and maybe 1985) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Now I know the GFS is crazy...it has us at 9º for a high on next Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 wow at the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Now I know the GFS is crazy...it has us at 9º for a high on next Friday. The models seem to have been trending remarkably cold in the long range all winter. We've had several model runs show below zero for KFLO in the 144+ range and I think our low for the year is 14. Though, plumbers would sure love to see temps like that. There'd be busted pipes everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Huntsville and Chattanooga have gotten it great this past winter. It's Nasvhille-Knoxville-Asheville's turn Speaking of which, look at the cold coming down: http://www.twisterda...BOVE_GROUND.png -10F in Knoxville is pretty brutal and hasn't happened since at least 1988 (and maybe 1985) Yeah we have gotten lucky these past 2 winters I will have to agree. I can't believe its been since 03' that nashville has gotten over 4.3 inches in one storm. thats a long time lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 The 0z GFS Ens Mean is not that far east of the OP. The SLP (1008) is splitting the NC coast at 156 and then head NNE from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 GFS is showing a triple phaser. Pretty extreme solution. It happens as a result of the huge ridge and displaced PV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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