WeatherNC Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Oh OK for some reason I thought it used the GFS. The DGEX is a downscaled GFS with NAM extension. It is run at the NAM resolution using GFS boundary conditions from the previous run. So this 18z run was using the 12z GFS boundary layer conditions. It is considered a hybrid model in that it takes the NAM at 84 hrs and runs it using GFS physics, at-least how I understand it. If one had to pick though between the NAM or DGEX at 84 hrs, the DGEX is preferred. Like all other models, it is a tool, and you have to look at available guidance and determine whether it fits within the possible envelope. This run does and save a couple mb, it looks very similar to the 12z Euro ens mean with respect to position off the SE coast at 156 hrs. 18z DGEX 12z Euro ens mean Granted, the model is known for producing epic SN maps this time of year that almost never verify, however, I do remember several runs leading up to the Christmas event that actually verified pretty well considering it was in the 5-7 day range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I have a strong sense that this one is a cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 The DGEX is a downscaled GFS with NAM extension. It is run at the NAM resolution using GFS boundary conditions from the previous run. So this 18z run was using the 12z GFS boundary layer conditions. It is considered a hybrid model in that it takes the NAM at 84 hrs and runs it using GFS physics, at-least how I understand it. If one had to pick though between the NAM or DGEX at 84 hrs, the DGEX is preferred. Like all other models, it is a tool, and you have to look at available guidance and determine whether it fits within the possible envelope. This run does and save a couple mb, it looks very similar to the 12z Euro ens mean with respect to position off the SE coast at 156 hrs. 18z DGEX Granted, the model is known for producing epic SN maps this time of year that almost never verify, however, I do remember several runs leading up to the Christmas event that actually verified pretty well considering it was in the 5-7 day range. Cool thanks for the info! We need for the DGEX to win one time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 While the HPC did mention in their afternoon discussion that the trend NW may continue to match a La Nina track, they are currently sticking with a gulf coast solution which matches the global ensembles and, by a snowball's chance, the DGEX. http://www.hpc.ncep....bgfnl_conus.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 While the HPC did mention in their afternoon discussion that the trend NW may continue to match a La Nina track, they are currently sticking with a gulf coast solution which matches the global ensembles and, by a snowball's chance, the DGEX. http://www.hpc.ncep....bgfnl_conus.gif Good enough for me, thanks for posting....I almost always forget to look at hpc graphics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Cool thanks for the info! We need for the DGEX to win one time. This is from DGEX snowfall map from Dec 18th, while not perfect it is not all that far off what happened Dec 25-26th. In fact its actually pretty good given it was 7 days out from the event. That said 90% of the time the snowfall maps are great porn but thats about it as a forecasting tool lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Here is why DGEX is a terrible model. Take the 84 hour 'off hour runs' of the nam; which has issues at that time range. Then input that into the GFS physic system and run that data out to 192. Treat it as just one more member of the 18z/6z ensemble packages imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 This is from DGEX snowfall map from Dec 18th, while not perfect it is not all that far off what happened Dec 25-26th. In fact its actually pretty good given it was 7 days out from the event. That said 90% of the time the snowfall maps are great porn but thats about it as a forecasting tool lol. It was spot-on for my area. However, we did see the axis of heavier snow move NW from that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Maybe the Christmas storm was that blind squirrel but to be fair it has missed almost every storm this year (I'm talking about these crazy snow maps). Believe me I would love to have the 15 or so inches it's showing for me but I have a hard time believing the dgex is remotely close w/ that snow map. I will agree however w/ WeatherNC that it could possibly be right w/ the track of the storm since it is close to the 12z euro ensemble mean track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Guess the cold outbreak for next week is the old Siberian express. Right now, all of western Canada is mild. Have to go up to the arctic circle to find sub-zero temps. That is other than the central US lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherman566 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I stated this before, but how about the cold temperatures for next week ? We are talking about temperatures around -5F to 0F for the deep south if GFS verfied. That is crazy, cold air. (I know it won't happen, but it's interesting) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 This is from DGEX snowfall map from Dec 18th, while not perfect it is not all that far off what happened Dec 25-26th. In fact its actually pretty good given it was 7 days out from the event. That said 90% of the time the snowfall maps are great porn but thats about it as a forecasting tool lol. Ahh...DGEX porn...crayola style bay-B!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Cowbells next week? Hint Hint..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I've got the 0z gfs out to 129 hrs and light snow looks to be falling throughout Tn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 00z GFS at 96 hours looks like some flurries or snow showers for northern GA and mtns of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Still snowing in Tn at 138...Heavier at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 At 120 hours central and western TN in on some light snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I like the looks at 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 0z GFS is an inland runner. Our friends in TN will love this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 A lot of changes on this run from 12Z GFS. A good bit faster as well. This thing will be totally up in the air for a while I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 at 144 maybe some snow in N. Ga. and W. NC...Tn still getting hit. So far another good run for Tn! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 This run is much, much colder than the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 It is an inland runner but good for W. NC and N. Ga....Tn is the winner....Rain for RDU! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 The soundings are so far different this run it isnt even funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 This run is much, much colder than the 18z run. Well it's running up I-95, so it will hit I-77 and points west pretty good. I-85 and points east might get some wraparound, but that never works out. Between 77 and 85 would be iffy. But, one thing I take from this run is how much it changed from 12z at 5H, athough it didn't help us. We need that big axx Canadian vortex to sag further south and then we would be sitting pretty, I would assume. Also, just to clarify, the foothills, mountains and TN should love this run so they won't want anything to change. If this shifted S/E then RDU and points east would love and then the mountains/foothills/TN might not be so happy. So don't let us RDU folks rain on your parade, I just hope this doesn't turn in to be a OH runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Already some big changes this run compared to 12z... @ 96 hrs, it is much deeper with the trough coming through the Carolinas and vortmax, looks nothing like 12z in that regard. At 138, and just basing this on the H5 setup compared to 12z, it should be east of that run with respect to our low track, since the trough is more positively tilted, and looks slower in making the turn towards neutral. Will see, but this should be a better run than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Already some big changes this run compared to 12z... @ 96 hrs, it is much deeper with the trough coming through the Carolinas and vortmax, looks nothing like 12z in that regard. At 138, and just basing this on the H5 setup compared to 12z, it should be east of that run with respect to our low track, since the trough is more positively tilted, and looks slower in making the turn towards neutral. Will see, but this should be a better run than 12z. It's pretty night and day just considering what it showed at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Just like HPC was thinking earlier, the Euro should start bringing this thing inland also to a favorable La Nina track. The trend has been consistent all day with ultimately a rain scenario for NC/GA/SC aside from the usual snow spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 00Z has the low running pretty much through middle MS, AL, GA... usually that means to warm up here in these parts, even with a weak low. I wouldnt really expect snow with a low traveling like that but the 00Z GFS gave it to us lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Already some big changes this run compared to 12z... @ 96 hrs, it is much deeper with the trough coming through the Carolinas and vortmax, looks nothing like 12z in that regard. At 138, and just basing this on the H5 setup compared to 12z, it should be east of that run with respect to our low track, since the trough is more positively tilted, and looks slower in making the turn towards neutral. Will see, but this should be a better run than 12z. What do us folks in central/eastern NC want to happen? Do we simply just want the Canadian vortex to sag further south and be further east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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