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February 8-12 model discussion


Rankin5150

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Unfortunately, analysis indicates this one will likely end up as snow on the other side of the mountains keeping on track with the outlook several weeks ago. There is even a reasonable chance that our NC High Country may miss out on snowfall with it occurring further up the Appalachians in Virginia.

The synoptic pattern with the ridge off the SE coast and off Florida just appears too strong.

Models will keep likely show intrusions of cold but then back off from it.

I hope it does not play out this way as I don't want a late January end to great skiing in the High Country.

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The Big Dog Met said the GFS will have to correct west next week, Surprise :arrowhead: He didn't say how much west though ? He said it will be a question of can the cold hold long enough for snow in the (Big Cities NE) So I would say he's leaning on a inland track. So if the NE has to be worried about temps I'm sure we will too.

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The Big Dog Met said the GFS will have to correct west next week, Surprise :arrowhead: He didn't say how much west though ? He said it will be a question of can the cold hold long enough for snow in the (Big Cities NE) So I would say he's leaning on a inland track. So if the NE has to be worried about temps I'm sure we will too.

His morning post this morning said from VA north.

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The Big Dog Met said the GFS will have to correct west next week, Surprise :arrowhead: He didn't say how much west though ? He said it will be a question of can the cold hold long enough for snow in the (Big Cities NE) So I would say he's leaning on a inland track. So if the NE has to be worried about temps I'm sure we will too.

Not always the case frosty. A storm that tracks up I 95 is a great track for us in western nc.

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I've really enjoyed being a member of this site and I feel like I'm learning a lot but I do have a question. From what I've read it seems like everyone frowns upon the DGEX. Can anyone tell me what makes that less reliable than the EURO or GFS? Is it more reliable as the storm gets closer? I'm just trying to learn as much as possible about the different models. If this is more of a banter question then I apologize, the mods can delete it.

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I've really enjoyed being a member of this site and I feel like I'm learning a lot but I do have a question. From what I've read it seems like everyone frowns upon the DGEX. Can anyone tell me what makes that less reliable than the EURO or GFS? Is it more reliable as the storm gets closer? I'm just trying to learn as much as possible about the different models. If this is more of a banter question then I apologize, the mods can delete it.

Basically, the DGEX is initialized using the NAM at 78/84 hours. At that range, the NAM is pretty bad, and continuing it out to 196 hours just distorts it further.

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I've really enjoyed being a member of this site and I feel like I'm learning a lot but I do have a question. From what I've read it seems like everyone frowns upon the DGEX. Can anyone tell me what makes that less reliable than the EURO or GFS? Is it more reliable as the storm gets closer? I'm just trying to learn as much as possible about the different models. If this is more of a banter question then I apologize, the mods can delete it.

No problem and good question. The biggest this is that it almost NEVER verifies especially when showing a big snow. I believe it initializes off of GFS Data and has a cold bias on top of the GFS tendency to make things too cold already so thus you get these crazy snow totals.

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I've really enjoyed being a member of this site and I feel like I'm learning a lot but I do have a question. From what I've read it seems like everyone frowns upon the DGEX. Can anyone tell me what makes that less reliable than the EURO or GFS? Is it more reliable as the storm gets closer? I'm just trying to learn as much as possible about the different models. If this is more of a banter question then I apologize, the mods can delete it.

It's just simply not a good model.

The Euro, for instance, has a higher resolution and a better method of ingesting initial conditions- and thus it generally produces a superior forecast in the medium range.

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