rduwx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Well, the DGEX buries most of the south. ...Let's see one of them colorful maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Unfortunately, analysis indicates this one will likely end up as snow on the other side of the mountains keeping on track with the outlook several weeks ago. There is even a reasonable chance that our NC High Country may miss out on snowfall with it occurring further up the Appalachians in Virginia. The synoptic pattern with the ridge off the SE coast and off Florida just appears too strong. Models will keep likely show intrusions of cold but then back off from it. I hope it does not play out this way as I don't want a late January end to great skiing in the High Country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Yay for backlash snow. We know that always works out. Damn you Euro!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 you have a link for the dgex ...Let's see one of them colorful maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 you have a link for the dgex I don't...To be honest I don't ever look at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 ...Let's see one of them colorful maps. It takes a while for those colorful snow maps to come out, but yeah it might be funny to look at given the amount of qpf over ERN NC on this frame. Too bad it's the DGEX: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Unfortunately, analysis indicates.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 The Big Dog Met said the GFS will have to correct west next week, Surprise He didn't say how much west though ? He said it will be a question of can the cold hold long enough for snow in the (Big Cities NE) So I would say he's leaning on a inland track. So if the NE has to be worried about temps I'm sure we will too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I can't get too upset, its not like we have tracked this thing for 4 or 5 days. If it aint gonna happen I would rather find out sooner than later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 The 18z GFS has me at 47 and rain with this storm. As a consolation I still get down to -3 after the storm. Yipee!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canela Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 The Big Dog Met said the GFS will have to correct west next week, Surprise He didn't say how much west though ? He said it will be a question of can the cold hold long enough for snow in the (Big Cities NE) So I would say he's leaning on a inland track. So if the NE has to be worried about temps I'm sure we will too. His morning post this morning said from VA north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 His morning post this morning said from VA north. For the current storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 The Big Dog Met said the GFS will have to correct west next week, Surprise He didn't say how much west though ? He said it will be a question of can the cold hold long enough for snow in the (Big Cities NE) So I would say he's leaning on a inland track. So if the NE has to be worried about temps I'm sure we will too. Not always the case frosty. A storm that tracks up I 95 is a great track for us in western nc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 His morning post this morning said from VA north. I didn't read it, I'll go back and check it out. You gotta believe the way the pattern is it will probably run right over top of us or west of the Apps ? But you can't never tell. But my guess is all modeling will keep going west in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 The DGEX should be banned lol. Why does it even exist? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 The DGEX should be banned lol. Why does it even exist? to make us feel better after the Euro brings us back to reality. It's like a bloody mary in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowforme Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I've really enjoyed being a member of this site and I feel like I'm learning a lot but I do have a question. From what I've read it seems like everyone frowns upon the DGEX. Can anyone tell me what makes that less reliable than the EURO or GFS? Is it more reliable as the storm gets closer? I'm just trying to learn as much as possible about the different models. If this is more of a banter question then I apologize, the mods can delete it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherman566 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 How cold does it look like it's going to get for the southeast late next week? GFS is hinting at very cold temperatures (single digits). What about the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 The DGEX should be banned lol. Why does it even exist? That's what I would like to know ? NEVER does it verify !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 lol Hey- even a blind squirrel finds a nut every now and again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 The DGEX should be banned lol. Why does it even exist? To give weenies like Brick Tamland satisfaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I've really enjoyed being a member of this site and I feel like I'm learning a lot but I do have a question. From what I've read it seems like everyone frowns upon the DGEX. Can anyone tell me what makes that less reliable than the EURO or GFS? Is it more reliable as the storm gets closer? I'm just trying to learn as much as possible about the different models. If this is more of a banter question then I apologize, the mods can delete it. Basically, the DGEX is initialized using the NAM at 78/84 hours. At that range, the NAM is pretty bad, and continuing it out to 196 hours just distorts it further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I've really enjoyed being a member of this site and I feel like I'm learning a lot but I do have a question. From what I've read it seems like everyone frowns upon the DGEX. Can anyone tell me what makes that less reliable than the EURO or GFS? Is it more reliable as the storm gets closer? I'm just trying to learn as much as possible about the different models. If this is more of a banter question then I apologize, the mods can delete it. No problem and good question. The biggest this is that it almost NEVER verifies especially when showing a big snow. I believe it initializes off of GFS Data and has a cold bias on top of the GFS tendency to make things too cold already so thus you get these crazy snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Basically, the DGEX is initialized using the NAM at 78/84 hours. At that range, the NAM is pretty bad, and continuing it out to 196 hours just distorts it further. Oh OK for some reason I thought it used the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I've really enjoyed being a member of this site and I feel like I'm learning a lot but I do have a question. From what I've read it seems like everyone frowns upon the DGEX. Can anyone tell me what makes that less reliable than the EURO or GFS? Is it more reliable as the storm gets closer? I'm just trying to learn as much as possible about the different models. If this is more of a banter question then I apologize, the mods can delete it. It's just simply not a good model. The Euro, for instance, has a higher resolution and a better method of ingesting initial conditions- and thus it generally produces a superior forecast in the medium range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 To give weenies like Brick Tamland satisfaction. I don't think he is ever satified!! Always wining ab out the winter being over!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 lol Just saw this and all I have to say is ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I believe the DGEX did well in the short range during the last big storm we had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowforme Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Thank you for your replies everyone. I guess every time I see a DGEX model I'll just disregard it, unless of course if it's calling for RDU to get 1' of snow! I'll just pay more attention to the Euro and the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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