DeepSouthSC Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I agree, we've seen almost anything and everything happen this winter, based on that alone, this storm and winter is a LONG way from fail. Hell, we've had our best snowstorms in March! Look at what happened in March of '93! March 1980, as well. I think the poster many of you are replying to was trying to get a reaction. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Euro ensemble mean at hour 168 I was just about to post that Allan, ens mean is still offshore meaning a sig percentage of the members are, and likely similar to the GFS in terms of spread, which is considerable. 12z JMA has an almost perfect track between 168 and 192 hrs from the mouth of the MS and off the GA coast, although it looks too warm for widespread SN, but the track is what is important at this range. The only thing I am really concerned about is the westward shift today, it is much more difficult to get a system to trend back south and east at this range, compared to more north and west. HPC suggested this in the final extended this afternoon, and they would not be surprised to see it come further west into a somewhat typical Nina TN Valley track. All one has to do is look at the 12z Canadian and GFS members to see this is still highly uncertain, and the potential is very much there, despite the narrowness of the window so to speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I agree, we've seen almost anything and everything happen this winter, based on that alone, this storm and winter is a LONG way from fail. Hell, we've had our best snowstorms in March! Look at what happened in March of '93! Ask GAWx what the odds are for a snow storm in March for Atlanta, GA. Add the fact that we don't have sufficient blocking and a roaring Pacific jet keeping everything progressive. Odds are stacked against us after mid-Feb it seems. I will probably eat crow for this! I'm talking olny south of Atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Yeah anyone who makes a post proclaiming winter is done in a winter like this needs a history lesson. Severe storms should start becoming more prevalent now, though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Ask GAWx what the odds are for a snow storm in March for Atlanta, GA. Add the fact that we don't have sufficient blocking and a roaring Pacific jet keeping everything progressive. Odds are stacked against us after mid-Feb it seems. I will probably eat crow for this! I'm talking olny south of Atlanta. But the odds are if there is one, it has the potential to be a big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 There have been plenty of southeast snowstorms that occur with out blocking or even a negative NAO, but those that did usually had a very strong cold vortex in eastern Canada that supressed the storm track. Some examples. 1. Jan 2-3 2002 2. Jan 13-15 1982 3. Jan 25 2000 4. Feb 9-10 1948 5. Feb 9 1967 6. Feb 18-19 1989 7. Feb 26 1963 Just to name a few. The point is that you dont have to always have a big west-based -NAO block, or even a -NAO. It helps, because it widens the timing window and usually supresses s/w's. However plenty of big storms have occurred with a +NAO, and I dont think we should give up on this system yet. I am not saying it will happen, but I am not going to abandon ship quite yet. Quality post Allan. I think we can throw Jan 22, 1987 in there as well if I'm not mistaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Ask GAWx what the odds are for a snow storm in March for Atlanta, GA. Add the fact that we don't have sufficient blocking and a roaring Pacific jet keeping everything progressive. Odds are stacked against us after mid-Feb it seems. I will probably eat crow for this! I'm talking olny south of Atlanta. CPC seems to be leaning the same way ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 CPC seems to be leaning the same way ... I can see being pretty bleak about south GA and FL as it's going to be pretty tough, but you just never know! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Like this little pitch for a week away in the long range AFD from RAH SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL CONSIST OF INCREASING CLOUDINESS MONDAY. LOWS30-35. HIGHS 55-65. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING... THEN PARTLY CLOUDY BLUSTERY TUESDAY. LOWS 35-42. HIGHS 40-50. CLEAR AND COLD WEDNESDAY. LOWS 15-23. HIGHS 35-43. INCREASING CLOUDS THURSDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW NW AND SNOW OR RAIN SE LATE. LOWS IN THE 20S. HIGHS IN THE 30S EXCEPT LOWER 40S SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I don't know why everyone gets so hung up off of one op run of the euro. All I have to say is miller a coming up the next two days and no blocking or arctic high I'm the ohio valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 For KATL, itself, MAR has far exceeded longterm climo since 1980 as far as sig. to major snows are concerned. KATL had major snow in 1983, 1993, and 2009. Also, it had 1"+ snow in 1980, 1987, and 2010. So, KATL has had 1"+ of snow in March a whopping six times in 31 years and majors about once every ten years Those are pretty impressive stats vs. the longterm norm (majors about once every 20 years 1900-83) if you ask me and that is just for Hartsfield airport. However, one had to go all of the way back to 1960 for the prior 1"+ Mar snow, when there was a big one. Before that there were big snows in March's of 1942 and 1924. So, it all depends. Are we still within the 1980-2010 March climo period? If so, there's a nontrivial shot at something nice in March even at the airport. If not, the chances of 1"+ would be small in and south of the city, especially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I can see being pretty bleak about south GA and FL as it's going to be pretty tough, but you just never know! Yes - yesterday's CPC was MUCH colder way down south. Amazing how things change in 24 hours in this realm. We'll see. I've had two sleet events my way the past 8 years in late Feb that were never progged; I've also sunburned on what was supposed to be a Feb freeze day. You're right - we'll see and "you never know" ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I don't know why everyone gets so hung up off of one op run of the euro. All I have to say is miller a coming up the next two days and no blocking or arctic high I'm the ohio valley. Well if we are going to get snow it better be next week. Just read Don S. updat and we look to go warm after the 14th. I know we can get big snows in March but we will see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Well if we are going to get snow it better be next week. Just read Don S. updat and we look to go warm after the 14th. I know we can get big snows in March but we will see If this storm doesn't work out for us then I'm fine w/ going warm. I got spoiled after last weekend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I tend to agree with ya. Plus college baseball is starting up....But, I would love COLD and SNOW If this storm doesn't work out for us then I'm fine w/ going warm. I got spoiled after last weekend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 If this storm doesn't work out for us then I'm fine w/ going warm. I got spoiled after last weekend... I just want one more snow then I am ready for spring. 18z is running so it should be fun to see if it has a wild swing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 If this storm doesn't work out for us then I'm fine w/ going warm. I got spoiled after last weekend... Agreed! I am down at Disney this week and it's been sunny and in the 80's, not looking foward to 40's and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Interestingly enough the 18z GFS says maybe some flurries in the area on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Severe storms should start becoming more prevalent now, though! Well that can wait for April. Until then, I'm strictly in winter time mode and I don't see any reason to let your guard down even where you are until mid March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 18z GFS looks night and day different from the 12z @ 114 hrs...this does not look to be a good run but let's see where she goes. **edit** I'll tray avoid guessing games from now on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 18z GFS looks night and day different from the 12z..this does not look to be a good run but let's see where she goes. Last four runs of gfs look totally different as of hour 120. So, needless to say, little confidence right now regardless of what 18Z shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Last four runs of gfs look totally different as of hour 120. So, needless to say, little confidence right now regardless of what 18Z shows. Yep this run is much warmer for the start of next week...however @138 it looks like it might be trying to get something going in TX. As we all knew model madness won't end until the storm is on us more then likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I don't even know what to say about this run. Somebody smarter than me is going to have to explain it to me!... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I don't even know what to say about this run. Somebody smarter than me is going to have to explain it to me!... Well the 18z is very close but looks too much like cold chasing the rain away at first. Than at 162 verbatim the CLT and west in NC is in some VERY heavy snow. I'll take this run please.Very odd indeed but I personally want it to verify Well durn, look at it more closely those freezing lines were blending in with the heavy moisture...looks like it's bending with the mountains so verbatim would just be heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Well the 18z is very close but looks too much like cold chasing the rain away at first. Than at 162 verbatim the CLT and west in NC is in some VERY heavy snow. I'll take this run please.Very odd indeed but I personally want it to verify Well durn, look at it more closely those freezing lines were blending in with the heavy moisture...looks like it's bending with the mountains so verbatim would just be heavy rain. 18Z gfs run isn't good for ATL--AHN as far getting snow in advance of the low as the low's path is much too far north. A little backlash snow is modeled, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 18Z gfs run isn't good for ATL--AHN as far getting snow in advance of the low as the low's path is much too far north. A little backlash snow is modeled, however. Yea def. too warm for you guys to start...looks like a frontal passage here which never works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burkecountync Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 The 18z GFS model was not a good model run for North Carolina, but at this point, what is the big deal. The computer models will be all over the place over the next few days. Henry Margusity in his daily video blog said that he expects the storm to come up out of the gulf and up the coast bombing out in New York. This would be an ideal track, and we will see if Henry is correct. He was correct about the Christmas Day snow storm. By the way, the 18z DGEX shows a pretty good snow storm for the western Carolinas. Lets wait and see what will happen over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Well, the DGEX buries most of the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Well, the DGEX buries most of the south. Of course...I expect to see reds and oranges all over NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 If the GFS is right, there goes my dream of seeing Independence Blvd looking like LSD in Chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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