Batman Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I'm just happy to have some possibilities still on the table. As I type, I am expereincing 35 and sleet outside. The last 3 days have been uncomfortably cold. Got about an inch and a half of rain this week and look to more than double that the next 48 hrs. Looks like serious cold coming again next week with the "Potential" for more winter weather. I can remember too many winters here where we went nearly the whole winter with only a week or two of cold weather and winter threats. Take away last weekend and New Year's Eve and basically the whole winter has been below average. Don't look now, but todays AO and NAO ensembles look to all drop drastically to about neutral over the next 7 days. From there they all go into total kaos with some jumping back pos. and other dropping well neg. Probably about a neutral mean beyond 7 days, but a better trend than we have seen in several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Do you have a link to JMA maps beyond 144hr? The only site I have is the wxcaster.com site. Jason check your PM's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Interestingly enough SV's WRF which seems to do pretty good has a major hit for the SE next week, but it's bread and butter is usually in the 3 day range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Canadian from last night: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Just got back to the office and had a chance to take a look at the 12z euro. To be honest I'm not really surprised. With no blocking or -NAO I knew this was atleast on the table. Plus several of yesterday's 18z gfs ensemble members showed an inland track. We still have many more model runs to go and by know means is this a done deal yet. Hopefully we all can get lucky and have this one work out for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I find it interesting that the 12Z JMA has not one but TWO fairly supressed Miller A type lows producing snow in parts of the SE US including much of N GA(one on 2/7 and the other on 2/10) whereas the 12Z Euro and 12Z GGEM have very little snow outside of TN/W NC from any storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 JMA has more E to ESE 500mb flow in SE Canada (more blocking) compared to the other 12z model runs, keeping the trough axis more positively tilted....result is a more suppressed storm and a little colder. Track of the sfc low from 144 to 192 is SW Texas - along northern Gulf - off Charleston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Anyone have the Euro ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 HPC says: Look for Apps runner next week. THE NEW ECMWF HAS TRENDED STRONGLY NWWD WITH A MAJOR STORM MOVING ACROSS THE SERN STATES THU DAY 7. AMIDST HIGH UNCERTAINTY...I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SUBSEQUENT RUNS TREND EVEN FARTHER W WITH THIS STORM NEXT WEEK TOWARDS THE FAVORED LA NINA TRACK THRU THE OH VLY/WRN FOOTHILLS OF THE APPALACHIANS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Watching the euro ensemble come in. The mean is significant further east than the operational run. At hour 168 the operational Euro has a 1000mb low over central Al. At 168 the ECMWF Ensemble mean is a 1016mb low just off the SE coast. Consequently in looking at the 850 0 mean line and mean QPF, it would likely be a big snow for N AL/GA, east TN/most of NC except SE NC, and the western half of SC. This means there are a majority of members showing a further east/colder/snowier solution. However there are some members even further west and slower than the operational run. What do I take from this? Well often times the operational Euro will lead the ensemble since it is the most sophisticated/best member of the ensemble. So If the operational run shows the same solution for a couple runs in a row, then the ensemble members will likely adust towards that. It is interesting to note that the operational GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian are all warmer and further west than the majority of their ensemble members. Will they adust towards the mean or will the mean adust towards them??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I'm just happy to have some possibilities still on the table. As I type, I am expereincing 35 and sleet outside. The last 3 days have been uncomfortably cold. Got about an inch and a half of rain this week and look to more than double that the next 48 hrs. Looks like serious cold coming again next week with the "Potential" for more winter weather. I can remember too many winters here where we went nearly the whole winter with only a week or two of cold weather and winter threats. Take away last weekend and New Year's Eve and basically the whole winter has been below average. Don't look now, but todays AO and NAO ensembles look to all drop drastically to about neutral over the next 7 days. From there they all go into total kaos with some jumping back pos. and other dropping well neg. Probably about a neutral mean beyond 7 days, but a better trend than we have seen in several days. Yeah, I've been looking at the teleconnections out put lately and I'm thinking the blocking is coming back sooner than later, but I'm no pro so it maybe wishful hoping that I'm gleaning some trend. But I think some of the models have been picking up something about next week, and just haven't sussed it out yet. No way you model two frozen events in a few days without some blocking ideas in the back of your computerish electromind. Or a split stream. Anyway, I like the trends. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 That's interesting about the ECMWF ensembles. Heard some discussion about them being in lockstep with the operational run on the NE forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Watching the euro ensemble come in. The mean is significant further east than the operational run. At hour 168 the operational Euro has a 1000mb low over central Al. At 168 the ECMWF Ensemble mean is a 1016mb low just off the SE coast. Consequently in looking at the 850 0 mean line and mean QPF, it would likely be a big snow for N AL/GA, east TN/most of NC except SE NC, and the western half of SC. This means there are a majority of members showing a further east/colder/snowier solution. However there are some members even further west and slower than the operational run. What do I take from this? Well often times the operational Euro will lead the ensemble since it is the most sophisticated/best member of the ensemble. So If the operational run shows the same solution for a couple runs in a row, then the ensemble members will likely adust towards that. It is interesting to note that the operational GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian are all warmer and further west than the majority of their ensemble members. Will they adust towards the mean or will the mean adust towards them??? *shivers*...That almost sounds like a philosophical cliff hanger...keeping us tuned in until the next episode. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Watching the euro ensemble come in. The mean is significant further east than the operational run. At hour 168 the operational Euro has a 1000mb low over central Al. At 168 the ECMWF Ensemble mean is a 1016mb low just off the SE coast. Consequently in looking at the 850 0 mean line and mean QPF, it would likely be a big snow for N AL/GA, east TN/most of NC except SE NC, and the western half of SC. This means there are a majority of members showing a further east/colder/snowier solution. However there are some members even further west and slower than the operational run. What do I take from this? Well often times the operational Euro will lead the ensemble since it is the most sophisticated/best member of the ensemble. So If the operational run shows the same solution for a couple runs in a row, then the ensemble members will likely adust towards that. It is interesting to note that the operational GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian are all warmer and further west than the majority of their ensemble members. Will they adust towards the mean or will the mean adust towards them??? Thanks. Note that although the 12Z Euro ensemble mean is, indeed, further south/colder than the 12Z Euro operational, it is also much further north/warmer than the 0Z Euro ensemble mean. So, the Euro ensemble mean has trended north/warmer since 0Z fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Watching the euro ensemble come in. The mean is significant further east than the operational run. At hour 168 the operational Euro has a 1000mb low over central Al. At 168 the ECMWF Ensemble mean is a 1016mb low just off the SE coast. Consequently in looking at the 850 0 mean line and mean QPF, it would likely be a big snow for N AL/GA, east TN/most of NC except SE NC, and the western half of SC. This means there are a majority of members showing a further east/colder/snowier solution. However there are some members even further west and slower than the operational run. What do I take from this? Well often times the operational Euro will lead the ensemble since it is the most sophisticated/best member of the ensemble. So If the operational run shows the same solution for a couple runs in a row, then the ensemble members will likely adust towards that. It is interesting to note that the operational GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian are all warmer and further west than the majority of their ensemble members. Will they adust towards the mean or will the mean adust towards them??? Thanks for the info on the ensembles. How do the new Euro ensembles compare to the 0z? Also, haven't most of the big storms this year trended slower as the event approached? Wouldn't that lead to more phasing and a NW trend/track? I wonder if the euro ensembles are as varied as the GFS? I almost think that the ensemble mean is of little value right now given the wide variety of solutions and timing. Feel free to chime in on my ramblings everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Thanks. Note that although the 12Z Euro ensemble mean is, indeed, further south/colder than the 12Z Euro operational, it is also much further north/warmer than the 0Z Euro ensemble mean. So, the Euro ensemble mean has trended north/warmer since 0Z fwiw. Thanks for answering one of my questions! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Well I don't want to say its over, but seeing the GFS and ECWMF trend so far to the west in one model run is a major sign this is going to be another fail for snowfall in the SE. There is just not enough blocking to allow such a solution to happen. Ensemble means really have little weight in this situation, because timing differences will falsely paint an area of sub 850mb temperatures in the mean, when in reality most of the runs show the 850mb temps above freezing during the height of the storm, just at different times. Another couple of runs, and this thing might be another lakes cutter... although it could also be the pattern changer as well. Despite how strong the last system was, it dampened out as it got into the northeast. This system has a potential to continue ramping up, allowing the ridge to pump over Greenland if it becomes a powerful extra-tropical cyclone over Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Even if that block forms as the operational EURO shows at days 8,9,and, 10 we would need it to retrograde a bit to really be of benefit. Its a start though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Well I don't want to say its over, but seeing the GFS and ECWMF trend so far to the west in one model run is a major sign this is going to be another fail for snowfall in the SE. There is just not enough blocking to allow such a solution to happen. Ensemble means really have little weight in this situation, because timing differences will falsely paint an area of sub 850mb temperatures in the mean, when in reality most of the runs show the 850mb temps above freezing during the height of the storm, just at different times. Another couple of runs, and this thing might be another lakes cutter... although it could also be the pattern changer as well. Despite how strong the last system was, it dampened out as it got into the northeast. This system has a potential to continue ramping up, allowing the ridge to pump over Greenland if it becomes a powerful extra-tropical cyclone over Canada. Yes, maybe a pattern changer, but by then, we are moving into late February. I think we are done. This was our last reasonable chance. On to spring. It was a good winter overall. Last one out turn out the lights and lock up, alright? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Yes, maybe a pattern changer, but by then, we are moving into late February. I think we are done. This was our last reasonable chance. On to spring. It was a good winter overall. Last one out turn out the lights and lock up, alright? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 There have been plenty of southeast snowstorms that occur with out blocking or even a negative NAO, but those that did usually had a very strong cold vortex in eastern Canada that supressed the storm track. Some examples. 1. Jan 2-3 2002 2. Jan 13-15 1982 3. Jan 25 2000 4. Feb 9-10 1948 5. Feb 9 1967 6. Feb 18-19 1989 7. Feb 26 1963 Just to name a few. The point is that you dont have to always have a big west-based -NAO block, or even a -NAO. It helps, because it widens the timing window and usually supresses s/w's. However plenty of big storms have occurred with a +NAO, and I dont think we should give up on this system yet. I am not saying it will happen, but I am not going to abandon ship quite yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Yes, maybe a pattern changer, but by then, we are moving into late February. I think we are done. This was our last reasonable chance. On to spring. It was a good winter overall. Last one out turn out the lights and lock up, alright? What's your reasoning for saying this? For GA? 2 years ago you and us had a great snow storm in March. Now saying you might not be right but seems a little far fetched to be saying game over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Yes, maybe a pattern changer, but by then, we are moving into late February. I think we are done. This was our last reasonable chance. On to spring. It was a good winter overall. Last one out turn out the lights and lock up, alright? Lol. Are you trying to be funny or is this actually a serious post? Late February and early March have been very active periods for snowfall in the SE. In a winter like this one it would not take much to get another snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Euro ensemble mean at hour 168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 There have been plenty of southeast snowstorms that occur with out blocking or even a negative NAO, but those that did usually had a very strong cold vortex in eastern Canada that supressed the storm track. Some examples. 1. Jan 2-3 2002 2. Jan 13-15 1982 3. Jan 25 2000 4. Feb 9-10 1948 5. Feb 9 1967 6. Feb 18-19 1989 7. Feb 26 1963 Just to name a few. The point is that you dont have to always have a big west-based -NAO block, or even a -NAO. It helps, because it widens the timing window and usually supresses s/w's. However plenty of big storms have occurred with a +NAO, and I dont think we should give up on this system yet. I am not saying it will happen, but I am not going to abandon ship quite yet. Well, if Jan 25, 2000 can happen without blocking or a negative NAO, then anything can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 There have been plenty of southeast snowstorms that occur with out blocking or even a negative NAO, but those that did usually had a very strong cold vortex in eastern Canada that supressed the storm track. Some examples. 1. Jan 2-3 2002 2. Jan 13-15 1982 3. Jan 25 2000 4. Feb 9-10 1948 5. Feb 9 1967 6. Feb 18-19 1989 7. Feb 26 1963 Just to name a few. The point is that you dont have to always have a big west-based -NAO block, or even a -NAO. It helps, because it widens the timing window and usually supresses s/w's. However plenty of big storms have occurred with a +NAO, and I dont think we should give up on this system yet. I am not saying it will happen, but I am not going to abandon ship quite yet. I'm not sure why all the negativity either TBH. I'm not banking on either until probably around Monday. Should be fun to track though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Yes, maybe a pattern changer, but by then, we are moving into late February. I think we are done. This was our last reasonable chance. On to spring. It was a good winter overall. Last one out turn out the lights and lock up, alright? ???? Then don't post till next winter, this post was a waste and pointless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 There have been plenty of southeast snowstorms that occur with out blocking or even a negative NAO, but those that did usually had a very strong cold vortex in eastern Canada that supressed the storm track. Some examples. 1. Jan 2-3 2002 2. Jan 13-15 1982 3. Jan 25 2000 4. Feb 9-10 1948 5. Feb 9 1967 6. Feb 18-19 1989 7. Feb 26 1963 Just to name a few. The point is that you dont have to always have a big west-based -NAO block, or even a -NAO. It helps, because it widens the timing window and usually supresses s/w's. However plenty of big storms have occurred with a +NAO, and I dont think we should give up on this system yet. I am not saying it will happen, but I am not going to abandon ship quite yet. Thanks Allan! There are some good storms on that list for our area. I'm not going to abandon ship right now either but I have to admit it wouldn't surprise me to see this be an inland track or an apps runner. Hopefully we can pull one out though. Thanks again for the info! EDIT: Also wanted to mention WeatherNC had a post about this the other day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 ???? Then don't post till next winter, this post was a waste and pointless Yeah anyone who makes a post proclaiming winter is done in a winter like this needs a history lesson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I agree, we've seen almost anything and everything happen this winter, based on that alone, this storm and winter is a LONG way from fail. Hell, we've had our best snowstorms in March! Look at what happened in March of '93! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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