Cheeznado Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Well, once again the lack of a good -NAO is going to screw us- we needed a faster system to come in from the west so the precip would fall while the air is still cold. No such luck it looks like. I think this trend is here to stay- another rain event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Euro has 1000mb low over MGM at 12z Thursday and basically clobbers the western half of TN with snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Compared to 12z GFS the 12z EURO is further west with the shortwave and has a 1004 mb low in SW TX while the 0z EURO had no low in TX at this time frame (150hr or 18z Wednesday). Yeah this bad boy is gonna be rain for most everyone when it comes down to it. I bet Ohio Valley gets clobbered with this one. The pattern right now suggests a north trend and with little blocking and having to rely on other mechanisms rarely works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Yep, 12Z Euro's low track as well as 0C 850 line 250 miles further north vs. 0Z run. A low track across central or north GA isn't going to get the job done for ATL-AHN. Next! See you at the 18Z gfs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 168HR, vort still positive (barely) over southern Arkansas. 999mb LP in SW AL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Without very strong blocking, it is going to be very difficult to have a S/W dig through CA and end up good for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Euro is going to be mostly rain for most of us. It is obv ious the trend in the models today was to slide the s/w further to the west and slow the storm evolution down. This allows for more interaction (phasing) with the northern branch of the jet and hence a further north and west storm track. With no -NAO out ahead of the system, this is a totally plausible scenario. However, it wouldnt be shocking to see things reverse again a few times over the next couple of days as this is still 6-7 days away and the key data wont be onshore for quite a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 All this just goes to show how unreliable the models are this far out. Like any model is really going to hold a solution for 6 days....NOT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Euro is an amazing 200+ miles north of the 00z run. At this rate, another midwest blizzard. Fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 the models went back and forth b/w a cutter and a suppressed system with the last one at this time frame. Maybe this is the time it remains more suppressed vs. cutting. I know that's not likely, but one can hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 With at least some decent blocking or a slightly negative NAO, this run would have looked beautiful for the SE with that +PNA out west. I can just imagine a 999mb LP rolling through the northern gulf of mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 At least all of the SE gets a good 1-2" more rain to hold off that drought... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 The JMA gets banged a lot, but 12z yesterday it had a northerly placed sfc low track, more in line with today's trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 At least all of the SE gets a good 1-2" more rain to hold off that drought... Wrong thread. Rain is considered evil in this thread. Go to drought thread. Yep, this is a classic example of a further north track meaning much more qpf/much warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 As others have pointed out this shows how foolish it is to put all your chickens in one basket. 00z Euro will probably be in Cuba tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 We've been though this ALL winter long.Models going back and forth.As i've said before we don't want the models to look perfect now ,like 2 weeks age when they were painting at least a foot for many only to rain .We need to wait til it gets a lot closer .And we know the models can't pick up on all the extreme cold that coming either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 The JMA gets banged a lot, but 12z yesterday it had a northerly placed sfc low track, more in line with today's trends. Speak of the devil, it's showing a fairly supressed system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Speak of the devil, it's showing a fairly supressed system. JMA as a crystal ball. Interesting..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Speak of the devil, it's showing a fairly supressed system. Wake me up on Tuesday please...this model madness is going to ruin the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Euro does show blocking trying to re-establish by the end of the run...so that's good, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I just noticed the 12z GFS has MBY at -11 on Friday Morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Speak of the devil, it's showing a fairly supressed system. Looks similar to todays EURO to me...??? http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_144HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 No, not at all. ATL (the city itself) got epic dumps of 7-10" of snow from storms in 12/1886, 1/1893, 12/1896, 1/1904, 1/1936, 1/1940, and 3/1983 and epic dumps of 3-4" of IP (keep in mind that 3-4" of IP is equivalent to ~9-12" of snow) from storms in 1/1884, 12/1917, 2/1979 and 1/1988. ALL of these were from Miller A storm tracks quite a bit further south than the 12Z gfs (all crossed either SE GA or north or central FL) and gave ATL-AHN in the very general vicinity of 1" of liquid equivalent. 3/1993 was much more the exception. Since the late 1800's, I can't find even one epic dump in the city, itself, that didn't have an associated track across either SE GA or N/C FL unless you want to count 3/1993 (which may not quite count as epic dump for city, itself..it is close..and it definitely didn't count as epic for KATL)..even if it did count, the track was still ~100 miles SE of the 12z gfs' MCN track. So, that's 11 epic dumps (about once every 12 years) and 11 similar Miller A tracks excluding 1983. Maps from here: http://docs.lib.noaa...ather_maps.html Thanks Larry. Good to know. Watch the Euro Ensembles come in further south. Wouldn't that be ironic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Speak of the devil, it's showing a fairly supressed system. I don't know about the 2/9-10 storm (too far out on maps I've seen which only go out 6 days), but, interestingly, the JMA has an earlier storm (Monday, 2/7) that is fairly well supressed (northern GOM) in classic Miller A fashion giving what appears to be a couple of inches of snow to places like Gadsen, AL, Rome, Dahlonega, and Blairsville, GA as well as Asheville. Weird. A definite outlier. Does any other model even have a system for 2/7? JMA sfc/qpf: http://grib2.com/jma...THKPRP_96HR.gif http://grib2.com/jma...HKPRP_120HR.gif JMA 850's in advance of the 2/7 system: http://grib2.com/jma...HTMPRH_96HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Looks similar to todays EURO to me...??? http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_144HR.gif Looks like it goes due SE after that hour...still only cold enough for snow in Tennessee/extreme northern bama/northern MS. I'd post the maps but it's Accuwx pro info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Looks like it goes due SE after that run...still only cold enough for snow in Tennessee/extreme northern bama/northern MS. Do you have a link to JMA maps beyond 144hr? The only site I have is the wxcaster.com site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 The JMA supports snow across western NC(just west of CLT to the mtns) and the extreme NW upstate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Do you have a link to JMA maps beyond 144hr? The only site I have is the wxcaster.com site. Only place I know of is Accuwx pro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Only place I know of is Accuwx pro. Good to know....how far does it go out on Accuwx pro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Good to know....how far does it go out on Accuwx pro? Out to 192, normally just before the euro finishes its run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.