weatherwiz Posted November 28, 2010 Author Share Posted November 28, 2010 Joe D not big on winds at all..though he tends to always play things conservatively Nothing wrong with going conservative about the winds, especially this time of year. Really going to depend on how well we can warm sector and how high the sfc temps can get too. If we can end up in the lower 60's than that would certainly be enough to limit the inversion some and allow potential for some stronger winds to mix down. The CAA winds could end up being more impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 28, 2010 Author Share Posted November 28, 2010 From OKX WILL LEAVE OUT MENTIONOF THUNDER FOR NOW...BUT WITH FORCING FROM THE SECONDARY LOW PASSINGNEARBY...ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...AND FROM THE LLJ...A FEWTHUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TOMONITOR THIS THREAT OF HIGH WINDS ON WEDNESDAY...CONVECTIVE ANDSYNOPTIC. RAINFALL THEN TAPERS OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Nothing wrong with going conservative about the winds, especially this time of year. Really going to depend on how well we can warm sector and how high the sfc temps can get too. If we can end up in the lower 60's than that would certainly be enough to limit the inversion some and allow potential for some stronger winds to mix down. The CAA winds could end up being more impressive. It would ne nice if the LLJ came through during the daytime. Well, it may do that for CT, but it looks like it comes through ern mass at night. This really is a LLJ, because max winds seem very near 950mb..at least on the soundings I saw. Some of those winds were between 65-70kts on the gfs...even at 950mb. However, there does look to be a pretty good inversion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 28, 2010 Author Share Posted November 28, 2010 It would ne nice if the LLJ came through during the daytime. Well, it may do that for CT, but it looks like it comes through ern mass at night. This really is a LLJ, because max winds seem very near 950mb..at least on the soundings I saw. Some of those winds were between 65-70kts on the gfs...even at 950mb. However, there does look to be a pretty good inversion. There will likely be a pretty good inversion in place which alone is really going to prevent some of those stronger winds from mixing down, unless we happen to somehow warm into the upper 60's to near 70F and that doesn't appear quite likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 28, 2010 Author Share Posted November 28, 2010 One thing that may have to actually be hit a little harder is the potential for some flash flooding...while this system looks rather progressive the potential exists for some extremely heavy rainfall and rainfall rates. Potential exists for as much as 1'' to perhaps 3'' of rainfall in a fairly short amount of time. Not sure how drain situations are across the region and when leaf collection commences for certain areas but I imagine there are locations where some drains are clogged from leaves and such. That could locally enhance any flash flooding threat as well. This isn't looking like it will be a huge flood threat but there certainly could be some minor issues in spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 28, 2010 Author Share Posted November 28, 2010 Looks like the better potential for stronger WAA winds will be down across NJ, looks like this is where the warmest low-level temperatures will occur and warmest sfc temperatures. Could see temps down there get into the lower to perhaps mid 60's with dewpoints just about the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 GFS has some pretty strong winds along the coast. Despite the inversion, it's not your classic srly flow event and does have a huge pressure gradient. I'd still keep wind expectations low, but something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 As WE thought..conservative not the way to go here OVERALL THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WIND ADVISORY POTENTIAL...WITH SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN AS WELL AS CT/RI/EASTERN MA AS WINDS WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER INCREASE TO 50 TO 65 KT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 As WE thought..conservative not the way to go here OVERALL THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WIND ADVISORY POTENTIAL...WITH SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN AS WELL AS CT/RI/EASTERN MA AS WINDS WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER INCREASE TO 50 TO 65 KT. Who cares if a lighthouse on ACK sees a gust to 65mph.......it will be like 50 mph for 95% of the region and 40mph at my house......NBD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Looks like the better potential for stronger WAA winds will be down across NJ, looks like this is where the warmest low-level temperatures will occur and warmest sfc temperatures. Could see temps down there get into the lower to perhaps mid 60's with dewpoints just about the same. Looks like the better potential is weenie atrophy due to the 11th consecutive month of monotony. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Who cares if a lighthouse on ACK sees a gust to 65mph.......it will be like 50 mph for 95% of the region and 40mph at my house......NBD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Looks like the better potential is weenie atrophy due to the 11th consecutive month of monotony. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 For the next week; absolutely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 :weenie: Take it to the banter thread please. No place for that crap here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Take it to the banter thread please. No place for that crap here That was hurtful....what if Maury Povich was looking for Scott's thoughts on the 216hr GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 wow you guys really do have the best forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 wow you guys really do have the best forum I realize this is likely light-hearted, but..... It only appears that way to those who are unfamilar with the dynamic here and choose to qualify the character of our subforum with a random, arbitrarily chosen raunchy post, but we don't really care what most of that contigent thinks anyway; the fact remains that the majority of posters from other regions will frequent our subforum when there is a major winter storm imminent.......if you don't find our vulgar sense of humor appealing, yet fail to focus on the superior contributions of our mets and fairly adept hobbyists, then that is your loss and no one else's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 It only appears that way to those who are unfamilar with the dynamic here, but we don't really care what most of that contigent thinks anyway; the fact remains that the majority of posters from other regions will frequent our sub forum when there is a major winter storm imminent. Seems like Kushy and Bowelmehunter spend quite a bit of time in our threads...wonder why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Seems like Kushy and Bowelmehunter spend quite a bit of time in our threadfs...wonder why? They all do...even those who take offense are still drawn to it; our posting style is polarizing and controversial and that is what sells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 wow you guys really do have the best forum There's a good mix mostly everyone knows eachother, nobody takes it serious until crunch time. And this ain't no crunchtime, sorry to say Paul no threat until March / April and thats going to be hundreds-of-miles to the West FULL WINTER MODE ABOUT TO COMMENCE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 29, 2010 Author Share Posted November 29, 2010 Looks like the better potential is weenie atrophy due to the 11th consecutive month of monotony. At least the pattern post the 1st looks somewhat promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 I'm glad the new forum hasn't changed your unbending optimism when it comes to the slightest chance or a rumble of thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 29, 2010 Author Share Posted November 29, 2010 I'm glad the new forum hasn't changed your unbending optimism when it comes to the slightest chance or a rumble of thunder. If there is the potential for thunder and I'm aware of it you can bet I'll post about it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 I realize this is likely light-hearted, but..... It only appears that way to those who are unfamilar with the dynamic here and choose to qualify the character of our subforum with a random, arbitrarily chosen raunchy post, but we don't really care what most of that contigent thinks anyway; the fact remains that the majority of posters from other regions will frequent our subforum when there is a major winter storm imminent.......if you don't find our vulgar sense of humor appealing, yet fail to focus on the superior contributions of our mets and fairly adept hobbyists, then that is your loss and no one else's. Violently agree, If folks get offended coming in here to bad.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Violently agree, If folks get offended coming in here to bad.. Kush is a trolling clown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Damaging winds looking more likely Wednesday 55-60 mph gusts for probably a 2 hour window ahead of and behind the front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 29, 2010 Author Share Posted November 29, 2010 WOW...Wednesday looks like it could be pretty sick, NAM bufkit at BDL has 50-70 knots well below 5,000ft as does the GFS...both models also don't really show much if an inversion at all so when that intense of area with embedded convection occur it could get quite windy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 30, 2010 Author Share Posted November 30, 2010 I can't believe we are this close and yet the NAM is still painting as much as 60-70 knots at 925mb. THe amount of QPF is also pretty incredible as well, just so much moisture being drawn into this system. The trough is just so deep the flow out ahead of it is just straight from the Gulf, just drawing boatloads of moisture up the East coast. If it wasn't for all these waves developing and occlusion going on we could have potentially seen even warmer air get advected into the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 30, 2010 Author Share Posted November 30, 2010 I think it was Scott who made mention of this but the potential gradient that may setup could really act to increase the potential for some damaging winds alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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