Ian Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Don't worry yall, the Euro ensembles will save us mean is ots basically but we get some snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I think I disagree about which is the bigger threat given how far west the ridge is and the lack of a nice greenland black. I think that makes either possibility on the table but the bigger threat is the system trending west. Heck, I made that statement before even seeing the Euro. I wouldn't yet give up on the event but think it's fighting and uphill battle. The one good thing is the Euro has been amped this year but the strogn ridge on both the GFS and Euro could lead to an not so favorable track. It'd feel much better if the ridge were another 5 to 10 degrees farther east. Which model caught the Chicago blizzard first? Wasn't there a run that had us snow before the big west jump? I think I was a little confusing with the way I worded my post. I agree with you that a west track is the bigger threat then OTS...that is what I was trying to imply with my Rain vs OTS comment. I think a problem with rain is much more likely then this storm being OTS. Its another thread the needle situation, but some are going way overboard because of one bad run, and a run that actually gives us some snow before a change to rain. It was never a high probability shot, and one run of the euro doesnt change that. The GGEM was the first to sniff out the Chicago blizzard idea, and it is still an eastern solution right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 we need a new play by play guy. Mildo is nothign but bad luck agreed i contacted ChrisL and he sent me a test pbp for last nights 0z run he is ready 0z euro hr 174 has a 1000mb low that reminds me of Jan 1996 over the gulf coast. it has a 50/50 low that has the writings of the likes of Feb 2003,and seems to be bringing down a massive 1044 hi that golly, i swear is a dead ringer for the great acrtic outbreak of 1985, the euro has precip that is spreading into the mid atlantic that truly resembles the radar "if they had one" from the great blizzard of 1888 the 0c line runs a perfect line along the coast that would match the great rain snow line from Feb 1983. the 500 low is neg tilted and now as i glance in my kocin book that matches Jan 1996 Jan 2000 now as i type this hr 240 is in--- hold on and i will give a full run down of analogs years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 mean is ots basically but we get some snow Sounds like the operational is a western outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Mitch for g-d sakes you are above your average seasonal snowfall total so far , and i am only 4" away from matching my entire seasons average. Like I've said before, the main biatch is the gross disproportionately low snowfall vs. other close by locals But I don't want to get into that argument again and why I feel the way I do; just commenting how I agree with others To your point, statistically speaking, through the end of JAN, 9.3" should have fallen and we are around 10. something (I say something because LWX climo site isn't working for me, but I know its between 10-11), so within a few days BWI will dip back below average if you considered FEB averages 6.4" and that's an average daily snowfall of .228" This winter could still pull it out, but I, like Bob, don't believe the pattern is conducive To hit average, its gonna have to snow another 8", give or take a few tenths of an inch, I think that's gonna' be tough all things considered now OTOH, if we do hit average, then the winter can be considered saved, I guess...but I would still be inclined to place an asterisk behind it if it does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Symblized Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 mean is ots basically but we get some snow Better than an apps runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 agreed i contacted ChrisL and he sent me a test pbp for last nights 0z run he is ready You and Ian have both gotten better. I prefer a level-headed PBP. Earthlight and tombo are ridiculous with this crap about it being awesome panel after panel and then they just say "Eh, looks terrible. OTS miss." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 It just doesn't feel like a good winter even with near climo totals. 3 or 4 5" events kicks a$$ but one decent storm and a pile of near miss nickle and dimers doesn't satisfy the needs. Weenieism is a sickness you know. We should all be on prescripts this year. lol That's of course just one opinion. This winter has felt decent, considering the extended cold, numerous accumulating snows, a freezing rain event, and one big one so far. It's been wintry since mid-December, and the public can't wait for the snow/frozen threats to end. The perception outside of the boards is that it has been an active winter. The most miserable ones can't seem to let anyone else enjoy the snows that have fallen so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I need one more 2-4 storm and I will call this winter a big success for a strong La Nina. Such a weird strong Nina though. The South is having a winter that rivals a Nino. A strong Nina usually means people in GA haven't even broke out the long pants yet. We've been real close to having a blockbuster winter too. The misses were so close that we could easily be way over climo this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Such a weird strong Nina though. The South is having a winter that rivals a Nino. A strong Nina usually means people in GA haven't even broke out the long pants yet. We've been real close to having a blockbuster winter too. The misses were so close that we could easily be way over climo this year. Still not sure how DEC 26 missed us. As I said a few weeks ago, had we cashed in on that even to the tune of 4-8, we'd all be cheering this winter as one of the best strong La Ninas of all time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 The most miserable ones can't seem to let anyone else enjoy the snows that has fallen so far. I hope I don't come across as a miserable one because I'm not at all. I do enjoy the cold quite a bit. Walking the dog every night in crisp cold air with my headphones on is one of my "happy places" regardless of whether there is snow on the ground or not. I caught a bonus weekend in Deep Creek where it snowed 14" during the 3 days I was there and there was 6" on the ground already when we got there. That plus the one good storm we've had is ok in my book. The only thing that has been a bit of a bummer this year for me is the fact that there has been so much snow all around us and we have only manged to eek out one real snowstorm. However, I'll take this winter over the torches we've had during the the 2000-9 decade anyday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 You and Ian have both gotten better. I prefer a level-headed PBP. Earthlight and tombo are ridiculous with this crap about it being awesome panel after panel and then they just say "Eh, looks terrible. OTS miss." i just give what the model says no sugar coating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Sounds like the operational is a western outlier. 1008 se of the benchmark compared to 980 over rhode island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Like I've said before, the main biatch is the gross disproportionately low snowfall vs. other close by locals But I don't want to get into that argument again and why I feel the way I do; just commenting how I agree with others To your point, statistically speaking, through the end of JAN, 9.3" should have fallen and we are around 10. something (I say something because LWX climo site isn't working for me, but I know its between 10-11), so within a few days BWI will dip back below average if you considered FEB averages 6.4" and that's an average daily snowfall of .228" This winter could still pull it out, but I, like Bob, don't believe the pattern is conducive To hit average, its gonna have to snow another 8", give or take a few tenths of an inch, I think that's gonna' be tough all things considered now OTOH, if we do hit average, then the winter can be considered saved, I guess...but I would still be inclined to place an asterisk behind it if it does BWI's at 11.9" so far, not 10-11". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 BWI's at 11.9" so far, not 10-11". like I said, I couldn't pull up the site so I stand corrected on what has fallen but no different otherwise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 You and Ian have both gotten better. I prefer a level-headed PBP. Earthlight and tombo are ridiculous with this crap about it being awesome panel after panel and then they just say "Eh, looks terrible. OTS miss." if there's one thing i can do it's read a model. but thx. most of the **** i get was for not being excited about hr 72 after looking at hr 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 JMA out to sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 mean is ots basically but we get some snow the means show a good southern snowstorm looks just like the 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 JB 3pm... he is working on this now...TITLE OF NEXT POST: IS THE REAL BLIZZARD OF THE CENTURY COMING NEXT WEEK? i'm surprised JI hasn't posted this here yet...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I hope I don't come across as a miserable one because I'm not at all. I do enjoy the cold quite a bit. Walking the dog every night in crisp cold air with my headphones on is one of my "happy places" regardless of whether there is snow on the ground or not. I caught a bonus weekend in Deep Creek where it snowed 14" during the 3 days I was there and there was 6" on the ground already when we got there. That plus the one good storm we've had is ok in my book. The only thing that has been a bit of a bummer this year for me is the fact that there has been so much snow all around us and we have only manged to eek out one real snowstorm. However, I'll take this winter over the torches we've had during the the 2000-9 decade anyday. Well, that ground to a halt for Richmond and SE VA. It was really one storm at Norfolk that has made the season for them. The deeper south mostly cashed in one storm so far, and a lot of this angst about everyone around us getting slammed originated from *before* we did get our big storm last week. People probably imagine Raleigh to have cashed in more than they actually have--- seasonal total is 8.6" so far, so I'm definitely happier to have been here to experience 15" of snow so far. Now that we did get our storm, there's no reason to be "jealous" of the south anymore. As for north of us, well, these gradient-type winters do happen quite often. The way the gradient has run this winter reminds me of 04/05, although NYC is doing much better relatively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I was looking at the old Euro ens mean run so ignore whatever I said. I deleted the comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 i'm surprised JI hasn't posted this here yet...... he just posted his discussion blah, blah, blah nothing unusual for JB imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 he just posted his discussion blah, blah, blah nothing unusual for JB imho I can see the post-storm discussion now..."Hey, I was right, there was a huge storm but it was 200 miles west (or east) of where I said it would be that's all! But I saw the potential way in advance so there...bow down before me, snow weenies, and pay up! Besides, Boston got another 18", so it's all good!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Well, Don S is pretty much outlining a mild period for the EC from the 2/14 to 2/24 range. Considering we haven't had any real stretch of mild weather this winter it is probably inevitable. If that is true and we don't cash in on anything next week then we will only have about a 3 week shot going in to mid March to get another decent storm. If it wasn't for the recent memory of snow shutting off for the season after Feb 10th last year I wouldn't think it's possible not to get another accum snow this season even with the Nina thing going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 That's of course just one opinion. This winter has felt decent, considering the extended cold, numerous accumulating snows, a freezing rain event, and one big one so far. It's been wintry since mid-December, and the public can't wait for the snow/frozen threats to end. The perception outside of the boards is that it has been an active winter. The most miserable ones can't seem to let anyone else enjoy the snows that have fallen so far. everyone is free to express their opinions we're human and those opinions differ, that's all no one is suggesting that anyone should not enjoy this winter I can see where some people differ from my opinion and I hold no grudge with those people or feeling of superiority as to my opinion its all good...just not agreeable to all people, but what ever is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 everyone is free to express their opinions we're human and those opinions differ, that's all no one is suggesting that anyone should not enjoy this winter I can see where some people differ from my opinion and I hold no grudge with those people or feeling of superiority as to my opinion its all good...just not agreeable to all people, but what ever is? I hear your opinion loud and clear and actually do understand where you're coming from. I guess I'm just reacting to whether, in a threat-tracking thread, repeats of the same comments day after day make the thread more or less readable. I don't think we need to cut out banter. It's just... well, would you enjoy this thread as much if people posted multiple times a day "This winter is really going well. I love how much snow and cold we have had and that we are above average snowfall so far this winter. I can't wait to get some rain to wash my car and then maybe get to see a little snow mixing in on Saturday. What an awesome winter!" Since you contribute a lot, there's no reason anyone should want to put you on ignore, and it's really not a big deal in the end. Just grates sometimes, that's all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 dc getting some love at hr 108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 yes plz http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_500_102m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 yes plz http://www.nco.ncep....fs_500_102m.gif It's a strange looking snow? I don't like strange but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 It's a strange looking snow? I don't like strange but who knows. where did it come from? dont recall it on previous run. the h5 track is great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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