Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 1"+ for alot of areas and most of va an all of I95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 GFS went way too far west an north today in one run. Not a good sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 i think the writing is on the wall gfs and the euro dig the trough much furhter west just like the last storm did and screws us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 our only hope is that euro is too phased and wrapped up which has been the case this winter 7-8 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 how much snow for DC before the changeover? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 our only hope is that euro is too phased and wrapped up which has been the case this winter 7-8 days out dt was right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 how much snow for DC before the changeover? prob a couple of inches. maybe 5 or 6" nw of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 how much snow for DC before the changeover? Instead of everyone saying this is a midwest storm already why don't we just look at the actual run of the EURO seeing as it will change countless times in the next 7 days. Verbatim euro is snow-rain-snow with probably a couple of inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 The euro is certainly what I feared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Well...the last 2 hours has been fun being happy for a snowstorm. See you all at 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 we need a new play by play guy. Mildo is nothign but bad luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Instead of everyone saying this is a midwest storm already why don't we just look at the actual run of the EURO seeing as it will change countless times in the next 7 days. Verbatim euro is snow-rain-snow with probably a couple of inches. how much d7 snow have you dug out of this yr? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 its a day 7 storm, and this is one run of one model that had been way too amped at this range all year. This is an overreaction big time. The bigger threat here is rain versus OTS but with the NAO state that is pretty much a DUH statement. We have no blocking and no help so we knew this was not a high percentage storm and we will need timing to be right and for the trough to stay positive until the right time. Its a shot just not a great one. There will be bad runs in this setup because its not perfect. This still has as much shot as it did 30 minutes ago before the euro gave us one bad run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 The euro is certainly what I feared. what is climo storm track for la nina in feb???I read on another source it was ov??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 sounds like a good hit for the Western burbs. Its only one run. Still our only threat to track probably till next winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 sounds like a good hit for the Western burbs. Its only one run. Still our only threat to track probably till next winter On the bright side the Euro was well west with the 7-10 inch storm we got right up until the last few model runs. It's another thread the needle deal, but hey that worked out for us once this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Just something to add on this model.. Yeh, next wake may not be favorable to get a good track for a winter storm say down here.. Still have to watch next week's storm, but it may set the table for the following week for a way better setup than now. When you look at the 240 hours out and yeh, thats way out there, I think the NAO or the apperance of Greenland block would finally be something that we've been waiting for in a while.. Finally will head back to negative again, and some blocking to start developing again. For us to get a better track and for a storm to not rocket up the coast, we desperately need the block. At least thats one of the keys to what we want.. So, the following week maybe when we have a more favorable track.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Just something to add on this model.. Yeh, next wake may not be favorable to get a good track for a winter storm say down here.. Still have to watch next week's storm, but it may set the table for the following week for a way better setup than now. When you look at the 240 hours out and yeh, thats way out there, I think the NAO or the apperance of Greenland would finally be something that we've been waiting for in a while.. Finally will head back to negative again, and some blocking to start developing again. For us to get a better track and for a storm to not rocket up the coast, we desperately need the block. At least thats one of the keys to what we want.. So, the following week maybe when we have a more favorable track.. You mean Greenland has disappeared recently?? Seriously...I know what you meant. But I don't see much indication of the Greenland block exactly coming back in that 240h image. In fact, the GFS pretty well around the same time really lifts the flow as well. Maybe things are in flux, going back and forth...I know the "longer ranges" looked better yesterday than they do now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 its a day 7 storm, and this is one run of one model that had been way too amped at this range all year. This is an overreaction big time. The bigger threat here is rain versus OTS but with the NAO state that is pretty much a DUH statement. We have no blocking and no help so we knew this was not a high percentage storm and we will need timing to be right and for the trough to stay positive until the right time. Its a shot just not a great one. There will be bad runs in this setup because its not perfect. This still has as much shot as it did 30 minutes ago before the euro gave us one bad run. I think I disagree about which is the bigger threat given how far west the ridge is and the lack of a nice greenland black. I think that makes either possibility on the table but the bigger threat is the system trending west. Heck, I made that statement before even seeing the Euro. I wouldn't yet give up on the event but think it's fighting and uphill battle. The one good thing is the Euro has been amped this year but the strogn ridge on both the GFS and Euro could lead to an not so favorable track. It'd feel much better if the ridge were another 5 to 10 degrees farther east. Which model caught the Chicago blizzard first? Wasn't there a run that had us snow before the big west jump? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I think I disagree about which is the bigger threat given how far west the ridge is and the lack of a nice greenland black. I think that makes either possibility on the table but the bigger threat is the system trending west. Heck, I made that statement before even seeing the Euro. I wouldn't yet give up on the event but think it's fighting and uphill battle. The one good thing is the Euro has been amped this year but the strogn ridge on both the GFS and Euro could lead to an not so favorable track. It'd feel much better if the ridge were another 5 to 10 degrees farther east. Which model caught the Chicago blizzard first? Wasn't there a run that had us snow before the big west jump? last thurs the gfs/euro both had it as a pretty good snowstorm here with duel highs building southeast. i think the gfs started to bail first later that evening (0z),. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Don't worry yall, the Euro ensembles will save us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I'm sure I'll be eaten alive for saying this but the doom and gloom in here is getting annoying. It's 7-8 days out. Whatever it shows today will most likely not be what it shows the day of the event, much less 0z tonight. I understand the frustration after our continual screw zone this winter but enough already. I'm hugging the GFS 12z in true weenie-ism until its blatently obvious we aren't getting anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I'm sure I'll be eaten alive for saying this but the doom and gloom in here is getting annoying. It's more reality than doom and gloom. Pattern as depicted is not conducive to a good event. High hopes aren't warranted. We've had better patterns earlier this winter and still ended up being kicked in the NADS. Not a big deal really. It's just weather and frustration is ok. The reality is that we need our blocking to return in a productive way this time. Otherwise, chances are low but not impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 It's more reality than doom and gloom. Pattern as depicted is not conducive to a good event. High hopes aren't warranted. We've had better patterns earlier this winter and still ended up being kicked in the NADS. Not a big deal really. It's just weather and frustration is ok. The reality is that we need our blocking to return in a productive way this time. Otherwise, chances are low but not impossible. Yeah, can't argue with you about that - reality this winter does suck around here. I got my hopes up after last week's storm that our fortunes were turning around - it had the feeling of last year in here. Hopefully we can squeeze out another storm before spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 It's more reality than doom and gloom. Pattern as depicted is not conducive to a good event. High hopes aren't warranted. We've had better patterns earlier this winter and still ended up being kicked in the NADS. Not a big deal really. It's just weather and frustration is ok. The reality is that we need our blocking to return in a productive way this time. Otherwise, chances are low but not impossible. yeah, once I start reading posts and think people have hacked into my account, its time to move ahead from this alleged winter season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 yeah, once I start reading posts and think people have hacked into my account, its time to move ahead from this alleged winter season Mitch for g-d sakes you are above your average seasonal snowfall total so far , and i am only 4" away from matching my entire seasons average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Mitch for g-d sakes you are above your average seasonal snowfall total so far , and i am only 4" away from matching my entire seasons average. It just doesn't feel like a good winter even with near climo totals. 3 or 4 5" events kicks a$$ but one decent storm and a pile of near miss nickle and dimers doesn't satisfy the needs. Weenieism is a sickness you know. We should all be on prescripts this year. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Don't worry yall, the Euro ensembles will save us No way man. Bastardi is going to save us all. "Headline of my blog on ACCUWEATHER.COM PRO: Is the real blizzard of the century coming next week?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Mitch for g-d sakes you are above your average seasonal snowfall total so far , and i am only 4" away from matching my entire seasons average. I need one more 2-4 storm and I will call this winter a big success for a strong La Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I need one more 2-4 storm and I will call this winter a big success for a strong La Nina. Yup. It's part of why I am trying to eek out an inch from the weekend system. Every little bit helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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