Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 It's quite a feat to get true arctic air in the MA. We're last in line and 9.9 times out of 10 the arctic air is way modified by the time it dives down and moves east. Don't we usually only get true arctic air around here when the source region is basically Siberia w/ a cross polar flow driving the cold straight down through CA and into the eastern half of the US? I remember reading an article some years back about it but remember much of the details. It takes quite a setup for the MA to get true arctic air and it's not easy or very common. Personally, I don't really care too much about it anyway because with the exception of a few great years in my lifetime, arctic outbreaks don't last much more than 3 days anyway. Bring on the snow and the upper 20's! I'm good with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I saw plenty of artic air outbreaks growing up in Ohio. I think the coldest night I ever saw was around -31 and I once saw a daytime high of -9. That kind of cold, well, it's not pleasant. I love the snow, but that kind of cold? Not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 It's quite a feat to get true artic air in the MA. We're last in line and 9.9 times out of 10 the arctic air is way modified by the time it dives down and moves east. Don't we usually only get true artic air around here when the source region is basically Siberia w/ a cross polar flow driving the cold straight down through CA and into the eastern half of the US? I remember reading an article some years back about it but remember much of the details. It takes quite a setup for the MA to get true arctic air and it's not easy or very common. Personally, I don't really care too much about it anyway because with the exception of a few great years in my lifetime, artic outbreaks don't last much more than 3 days anyway. Bring on the snow and the upper 20's! I'm good with that. Oh, me too. But I guess the nag with me is that if it is mis-modeling air masses and their progression, how can it be trusted with storm systems? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Oh, me too. But I guess the nag with me is that if it is mis-modeling air masses and their progression, how can it be trusted with storm systems? Yea, I hear ya. In reality there is a big difference in the chances of getting cold air vs uber cold air and snow vs uber snow. When models are showing an extreme cold or extreme snow solution it is certainly mathmatically possible but the odds of it verifying are stacked against it. I pretty much expect the models to back off on the cold as we approach these events. Snow events are different though. Much more dynamic and can wobble stronger and weaker at any time on any run. Uber cold will almost always end up weaker in the end (at least in the MA). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 18z GFS is underway, here we go,.. and take 18z with a grain of salt .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 18z GFS is underway, here we go,.. and take 18z with a grain of salt .... not a good way to come off of 5ppd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 gfs hr 102 500 looks a little more amped heights are a littler higher in the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 gfs hr 102 500 looks a little more amped heights are a littler higher in the east i would expect the the gfs to have bigger changes at 00z than at 18z. Lets see what happens tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 i would expect the the gfs to have bigger changes at 00z than at 18z. Lets see what happens tonight. 18z seems to be sniffing the euro's storm not there but it took a slight step Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 18z seems to be sniffing the euro's storm not there but it took a slight step It's trended or shifted somewhat towards the euro. All we need is a little more relaxation of the vortex over canada and we'd be OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 i agree with randy. i aint bailing till 00z tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 looks like orf is the bullseye this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 It's trended or shifted somewhat towards the euro. All we need is a little more relaxation of the vortex over canada and we'd be OK. We also need a littel stronger southern stream but with more room we'd probalby get it. Baby steps maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 i agree with randy. i aint bailing till 00z tonight this is right where we want it.. all systems go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 the gfs is a piece of crap for east coast snowstorms. it does well for cutters,etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 JMA and ECMWF agreement has been pretty deadly this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 It's trended or shifted somewhat towards the euro. All we need is a little more relaxation of the vortex over canada and we'd be OK. Looks like quite an improvement overall. That low over the lakes before is now much further northwest, and the southern vort looks slightly more impressive. I'm starting to feel good about our chances with this thing. I do believe the vortex will relax a bit as to what is currently modeled, fingers crossed. Virginia certainly stands to do well with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 the gfs is a piece of crap for east coast snowstorms. it does well for cutters,etc by 12z monday we are all going to be praying for no more north west shifts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 congrats DT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 by 12z monday we are all going to be praying for no more north west shifts today's vort was scheduled to be fairly weak and passing over my house for like 12 runs of the gfs. instead it ended up being a closed 500 low over ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 GFS just blinked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 we should start a new thread for the 00z model runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 i agree with randy. i aint bailing till 00z tonight 0z MONDAY I said. But I think things look pretty good at this stage that I'd give it a little longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 if that dang Euro hadn't been such a tease so many times this year in this range, I could get excited optimistic? sure just not excited yet although, the Euro goes zonal within days after this storm so it has that PDI similarity to it in my book Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 We down here in ric have been burned so many times this winter with the NW trend. I cant believe how bullish the NWS is down here. snow likely and cold wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 if that dang Euro hadn't been such a tease so many times this year in this range, I could get excited optimistic? sure just not excited yet although, the Euro goes zonal within days after this storm so it has that PDI similarity to it in my book It better not be a Feb 2006 type torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 We down here in ric have been burned so many times this winter with the NW trend. I cant believe how bullish the NWS is down here. snow likely and cold wow we're due for a southern and central MA MECS this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I still think this post changed the tide for this storm--- DC has crashed and burned in a year. Wasn't it the DC crew that willed the JAN 30th storm up to DC? The models had it pegged as a 12-20 inch event from CLT to HKY to RDU and you willed to 3-6 with sleet and a shocking 5-8 snowfall in DC! From there-- it was riding the gravy train to a historic winter. You've conceded this storm to Boston already. We need the mojo back-- Great moments are born from great opportunity. And that's what you have here tonight, boys. That's what you've earned here, this week. One storm. If it snowed ten times, they might get more in nine. But not this storm. Not this week. This storm, we snow with 'em. This storm we stay with 'em, and we out snow them because we can! This storm, we are the greatest snow city in the world. You were born to be in a blizzard -- every one of ya. And you were meant to be here in this storm. This is your time. Their time -- is done. It's over. I'm sick and tired of hearin' about what a great snow town Boston is. Screw 'em! This is your time!! Now go out there and take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 0z MONDAY I said. But I think things look pretty good at this stage that I'd give it a little longer. a little longer after 0z monday we should be arguing whether it will be a mecs or a hecs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 It better not be a Feb 2006 type torch. Euro does warm up by day 8 and looks to stick around for a while, although a nice block has developed in N and C Greenland by the end of the 10 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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