jacindc Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I was going to say the same thing. I think it was five straight runs. Amazing miss. This is why looking at model runs this year, until about 48 hours out (if then!), strikes me as little more than Make a Wish territory. Oh, to go back to last year, when if the Euro had it (or didn't), that was that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Surprised to see the Euro hold and even tick NW a bit given the other guidance. Most winters I would like where we stand right now given the GFS tendency to wash everything out too far SE. The problem with the gfs is the vort getting killed. Im not sure what's causing it but that is whats causing the low to slide east as there is no h5 vort to pull it north and up the coast. If the vort keeps its strength from when it originally dives down the trough then it would be a hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 It all has to do with snowfall rate!!!!! euro has it going from se GA to 200 miles east of Maine in 24 hours. How is it supposed to have enough time to deposit accumulating snow anywhere in the Mid-Atlantic when moving so quickly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I can't think of any storms in the past that have given 12"+ snows to Norfolk and result in anything of significance for DC.. the track is pretty decent for here. i think this solution is probably not what will happen anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 euro has it going from se GA to 200 miles east of Maine in 24 hours. How is it supposed to have enough time to deposit accumulating snow anywhere in the Mid-Atlantic when moving so quickly? when it drops over 1" in 6 hours in orf i guess that is how? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 euro has it going from se GA to 200 miles east of Maine in 24 hours. How is it supposed to have enough time to deposit accumulating snow anywhere in the Mid-Atlantic when moving so quickly? You sure do ask some weird questions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 1980 which storm.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 which storm.? There were quite a few storm that year which gave Norfolk a foot and still brought significant snow to DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Surprised to see the Euro hold and even tick NW a bit given the other guidance. Most winters I would like where we stand right now given the GFS tendency to wash everything out too far SE. the gfs is a bit of an outlier at this pt it seems so it might be right but i'd discount it at least slightly for now I don't know..remember the Euro has been too wrapped/NW this winter. Is the GFS truly an outlier though, given that the GGEM is closer to it than the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 euro has it going from se GA to 200 miles east of Maine in 24 hours. How is it supposed to have enough time to deposit accumulating snow anywhere in the Mid-Atlantic when moving so quickly? lol not your best post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 226 PM EST SAT FEB 05 2011 VALID 12Z TUE FEB 08 2011 - 12Z SAT FEB 12 2011 FINAL GRAPHICS FLATTENED THE SYS ALONG THE SE COAST THU FROM THE PRELIM RELEASES. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO FINAL GRAPHICS. WE KEPT THE PREDOMINATELY 00Z/05 ECMWF ECMWF ENSEMBLE BLEND. MEAN SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE ERN CONUS TROUGHING SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WHILE RIDGING ALONG 135W IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN AFTER THU. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE TROUBLE EVEN WITH THE SHORTER TERM SYSTEMS...SO DETAILS REMAIN MURKY AT BEST. HOWEVER...00Z/05 LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC FLOW WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRI/D6 WITH A POTENTIALLY DEEPENING CYCLONE MOVING FROM THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST THEN INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK HAS TRENDED TOWARDS A TROUGH IN RECENT MODEL RUNS...THOUGH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD EXISTS THERE IN THE ENSEMBLES. SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST WED/D4 SHOULD FORM SFC LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY THU/D5. THE 00Z ECMWF HAD QUICKENED ITS PACE FROM YESTERDAY WHILE THE CORRESPONDING GFS HAD SLOWED. THEREFORE SPREAD AMONGST THE 00Z MODELS WITH THIS SE SYS HAS DECREASED FOR THU. QUESTIONS REMAINED AS TO WHETHER THIS LOW WILL STAY FLAT AND MOVE OUT TO SEA OR MORE AMPLIFIED AND RIDE UP THE COAST. FROM THE 00Z MODEL SUITE OF DATA...A NUMBER OF SOLUTIONS WERE ON THE TABLE. MOST 12Z/05 MODELS HAVE TRENDED FLATTER/MORE SUPPRESSED WITH THAT SYS AS DESCRIBED BELOW. DETERMINISTIC 12Z/05 MODELS: THE NEW 12Z GFS HAS PRETTY GOOD CONTINUITY FROM ITS 00Z RUN OVER MOST OF THE WEATHER MAP WITH FEW NOTABLE EXCEPTIONS. IT HAS TRENDED FLATTER THAN ITS 00Z RUN WITH THE HOTLY DEBATED POTENTIAL STORM DEVELOPING THU ALONG THE SE COAST OF THE CONUS. IT TRACKS THIS SYS FLATTER AND TO THE RIGHT OF ITS CONTINUITY THEREAFTER INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC. THE 12Z UKMET/CANADIAN/ARE ALSO FLATTER AND MORE SUPPRESSED THAN THEY WERE IN THEIR 00Z RUNS. THE ECMWF HAS THE MOST VIGOROUS COASTAL SYS OF ALL THE NEW MODELS...AND STILL THREATENS A SNOWSTORM FROM AR ACROSS TN/KY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. I WILL NOT SPECULATE ON SNOW AMOUNTS WITH SUCH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE OUTCOME ATTM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I don't know..remember the Euro has been too wrapped/NW this winter. Is the GFS truly an outlier though, given that the GGEM is closer to it than the Euro? The GGEM seems closer at 500 to the Euro than GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I don't know..remember the Euro has been too wrapped/NW this winter. Is the GFS truly an outlier though, given that the GGEM is closer to it than the Euro? ggem is sort of a middle ground imo. not the best for us but at this range i'd take that over a track backing up over us or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 euro has it going from se GA to 200 miles east of Maine in 24 hours. How is it supposed to have enough time to deposit accumulating snow anywhere in the Mid-Atlantic when moving so quickly? Not to draw any comparsions... But does the February Blizzard of 1983 ring a bell? Storm was an extremely fast mover, yet dropped 30+ in Maryland... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 the euro was best with the midwest low earliest last week. i remember hearing people (myself included) say oh the euro is up to its tricks, it might end up colder etc. nope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 The GGEM seems closer at 500 to the Euro than GFS. Good catch. 500 is really all we should worry about at this time frame anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Not to draw any comparsions... But does the February Blizzard of 1983 ring a bell? Storm was an extremely fast mover, yet dropped 30+ in Maryland... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 which storm.? Must be March 1, 1980. Baltimore got 6 inches not huge but significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 http://www.americanw...h__1#entry73272 I gotta say, Mido, I love that. Cheers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 You sure do ask some weird questions. The low moves 1400 miles in 24 hours. Check out moisture vectors at 700 mb, where is the GOM moisture feed? Where is the Atlantic moisture feed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I am dying to see that Richmond BECS thread go to Part 97 inside of 18 hours... I am beginning to wonder what is the most snow Richmond has ever gotten in a single season? And never mind the airport snow measurements. Also what is the most snow Richmond has ever seen in ONE storm? This looks to be south VA's year for snow setups - setting the incredible 1978-esque Lake Shore Drive Chicago Blizzard aside for the moment With a bit more cold air and a touch more qpf - Who knows? Richmond's BIGGEST snow season EVER? It's gonna take midlo two weeks to dig out from this - between his home snow setup and this upcoming blizzard dont make me have to come down there and dig you out midlo At the airport, the largest single-season snowfall total is 38.9 inches. The largest single-storm snowfall total is 21.6 inches, set in 1940. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 The low moves 1400 miles in 24 hours. Check out moisture vectors at 700 mb, where is the GOM moisture feed? Where is the Atlantic moisture feed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Anybody else feel that EURO = Bait? You can admit it. BTW, is the much ballyhooed arctic outbreak still coming per the EURO, or has it suffered the same fate as all the other arctic outbreaks this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Anybody else feel that EURO = Bait? You can admit it. BTW, is the much ballyhooed arctic outbreak still coming per the EURO, or has it suffered the same fate as all the other arctic outbreaks this winter? yep it has done it all year. 12z has -12c 850 at the coldest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Anybody else feel that EURO = Bait? You can admit it. BTW, is the much ballyhooed arctic outbreak still coming per the EURO, or has it suffered the same fate as all the other arctic outbreaks this winter? 12Z GFS still had it; don't know about the EURO, what's your point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I mean, all the great analysis, but this is basically where we're at in C MD. -- NBD ATTM -- but what else can you really deduce right now? Nice to see they are sounding reasonably optimistic still at this point, all things considering.... it's gonna be cold enuf to snow, chances basically 50-50. ------------------------------------- AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 234 PM EST SAT FEB 5 2011 <snipped appreciably> SYNOPSIS LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/ CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS EXPECTED. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM REMAIN UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT...BUT WITH COLDER AIR IN PLACE ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// -------------------------------------- Updated: 3:00 PM EST on February 5, 2011 <snipped> Wednesday Night: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 23 Chance of precipitation is 40%. Thursday: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 27. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 euro ens mean is still a graze in the dc area but it looks better than 0z decent hit for ne nc and se va Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 euro ens mean is still a graze in the dc area but it looks better than 0z decent hit for ne nc and se va Good news. I was hoping the mean would shift west with the operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 12Z GFS still had it; don't know about the EURO, what's your point? My point is that these cold outbreaks have not materialized this year. Right now, even the GFS has my highs in the upper 20's, and that is only for a couple of days. My money says I'll be lucky to see any days with a high that doesn't reach 30. That's about 10-12 degrees below average. I hardly call that an arctic outbreak. Just yesterday at 6z, the GFS had it bone chilling cold here next week. The EURO has done this several times as well. As for the snow, the GFS yesterday at 6z showed a tremendous storm potential. Now what does it show? The EURO is the one throwing out the bone now. Heck, I hope it snows and gets frigid just like you. I'm just very skeptical. After this winters storm tracking, I'd say we'd all be wise to be very skeptical until a couple days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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