Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 12z ens are even further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
insanegrenade Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 for day 5 ---it loos to be in a good spot and you want your 5ppd lifted I'm still learning. Didn't know this was old data and wanted to contribute to the forum. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 You are the weenie master of the DGEX and early morning over-analysis of the 06Z suite. Because I post an occasional map off the DGEX so people can see what it has to show? Weenie master of the DGEX? Yeah right. Whatever. As far as me going over the 06Z suite I enjoy doing that because that's when I have some time and it's a slow period of time for the boards. People can look at it if they want, but the intolerable thing is when they actually get "worried" about it not showing a hit. Folks do the same thing with the awful NOGAPS. [/quote I don't see to many people that get overly excited about what the DGEX shows and I know dam well I don't. DGEX is one of many models out there, probably not better then most but still a model to look at to get a general feel for how something will play out so I don't understand what the issue is that you have to attack every person that might bring it up. As far as you attacking me that seems to be your MO. Been watching you for years popping into threads just long enough to attack and criticize as many people as you can then moving on to the next thread. It's just sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 12z ens are even further south This storm is starting to lean heavily OTS for DC north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Not worried for now, but there's certainly a part of me worried about the recent OTS model grouping. and you want your 5ppd lifted I'm embarassed to be in the same boat as such fine company. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 The individual gefs members are pretty ungly and only one member on eyewall site even gets any snow into dc and it looks pretty much like the 06Z GFS, essentially a glancing blow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 This is going to be a close call and a struggle to keep it from going too far west as we near the event. At this point (114 hr GFS map below), I'd expect the vort to strengthen and start to tilt the trof negative. It's still west of Lake Michigan longitude which suggests to me it will try and ride west of the southern apps. Fortunately, we have some cold dry air in place, and perhaps the low will do a jump to the coast south of us keeping us all snow. If I was forecasting now, I'd go with a snow likely to start then snow/mix likely for the second half of the storm. This seems to be what HPC/NWS is thinking but the boards here are seemingly much more worried about suppressed/OTS. I am wondering what the pros' thoughts around here (Ian, Wes, etc.) are on Lwx being more worried about a westward solution eventually. It seems they think the surface isn't matching the features being presented. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lester Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Don't worry guys, the northwest trend always wins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 i;d still rather have a graze or ots than something perfect or headed inland at this pt. that works well most yrs tho maybe not this one. Agreed but I don't want the Euro to continue to move towards the GFS solution. I would be nice to see the Euro hold N&W of other guidance and not show the same or worse at this point. Don't think we have to worry about a NW rainer at this point although LWX mentions it and they know a heck of a lot more that I do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 This seems to be what HPC/NWS is thinking but the boards here are seemingly much more worried about suppressed/OTS. I am wondering what the pros' thoughts around here (Ian, Wes, etc.) are on Lwx being more worried about a westward solution eventually. It seems they think the surface isn't matching the features being presented. Here's HPC's prelim discussion. They go with the euro but that's still a pretty suppressed look and the discussion was released before the 12Z GFS was out. Essentially, they say any of the solutions is possible. I think that the southwestern vort may end up being stronger than forecast by the GFS but that's just a guess so I wouldn't put much stock in it. The flow is really fact and there are multiple shortwaves in each stream. to muck things up or change them from what is being forecast. I'm not good enough to know wich model is correct. I do know I generally like having one of the models show a storm but even without any, there still would be potential for the models to bring a storm back on later runs. PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 857 AM EST SAT FEB 05 2011 VALID 12Z WED FEB 09 2011 - 12Z SAT FEB 12 2011 ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO UPDATED PRELIM GRAPHICS. WE KEPT THE PREDOMINATELY 00Z/05 ECMWF BLEND AND PUT IN A MINOR PERCENTAGE OF THE NEW 00Z/05 ENSEMBLE MEAN. CONUS TROUGHING LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OFF THE WEST COAST IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE TROUBLE EVEN WITH THE SHORTER TERM SYSTEMS SO DETAILS REMAIN MURKY AT BEST. HOWEVER... SYNOPTIC FLOW IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRI/D6 WITH A QUICK MOVING BUT POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT AND DEEPENING CYCLONE MOVING FROM THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. UPPER PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK HAS TURNED DECIDEDLY TROUGHY IN RECENT MODEL RUNS THOUGH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD EXISTS IN THE ENSEMBLES. SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST WED/D4 SHOULD FORM SFC LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY THU/D5. 00Z ECMWF HAS QUICKENED ITS PACE FROM YESTERDAY WHILE THE GFS HAS SLOWED... SO SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS HAS DECREASED HERE. AFTER THAT... QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO WHETHER THE LOW STAYS FLATTER AND MORE OUT TO SEA OR MORE AMPLIFIED AND RIDES UP THE COAST. ANY VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS HAS BEEN FORECAST BY THE MODELS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND ANYTHING IS ON THE TABLE RIGHT NOW. SIDED WITH THE ECMWF MORE SO THAN THE GFS DUE TO ITS PREFERRED HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT DIVES DOWN THROUGH THE WEST IN THE SHORT TERM. 00Z GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE SURPRISINGLY WEAK IN THEIR PMSL FIELDS CONSIDERING BOTH OPERATIONAL MODELS DEEPEN THE SFC LOW SMARTLY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. ONCE THE EAST COAST SYSTEM DEPARTS THE WEST COAST LOOKS TO BE IN FOR A PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD A CLOSED LOW OR DEEP TROUGH ALONG 140W RATHER THAN A STRONG RIDGE JUST OFF THE COAST. NOT SURPRISINGLY GIVEN THE PATTERN CHANGE...ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI PLOTS SHOW VERY LARGE SPREAD DEVELOPING FRI/SAT OVER THE WRN THIRD OF THE CONUS AND ADJACENT PACIFIC...AND ABOVE AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY SPREADS EWD ALONG THE JET INTO THE ERN STATES BY SAT DAY 7. LOTS OF TIMING ISSUES HERE WITH THE CANADIAN WELL EAST OF THE ECMWF. FRACASSO/FLOOD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 The individual gefs members are pretty ungly and only one member on eyewall site even gets any snow into dc and it looks pretty much like the 06Z GFS, essentially a glancing blow. im sort of expecting the euro to be a whiff now. but im being a weenie today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 im sort of expecting the euro to be a whiff now. but im being a weenie today... I wouldn't be surprised. I'd take that as a bad sign though not the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Agreed but I don't want the Euro to continue to move towards the GFS solution. I would be nice to see the Euro hold N&W of other guidance and not show the same or worse at this point. Don't think we have to worry about a NW rainer at this point although LWX mentions it and they know a heck of a lot more that I do. well wes has pointed out and i agree based on what we've seen that the euro has overamplified some storms this yr. unfortunately the gfs has done fairly well in pattern recognition if not all specifics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 im sort of expecting the euro to be a whiff now. but im being a weenie today... It's hard not to be pessimistic, but I won't start to really worry until there's a compelling reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 If 0z doesn't trend better then I will worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Thanks Wes, very informative. I have to say I'm much more optimistic by blending the models with the HPC discussion. However, although they make it clear that anything is on the table, I do agree with you that I wish a westward solution was a tad more prevalent (GGEM?) in order to balance things out. But maybe that's just the way this winter is going which makes me say that. Most years I would believe that we would be pretty excited with the current solutions given how the models usually move NWward as an event unfurls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 well wes has pointed out and i agree based on what we've seen that the euro has overamplified some storms this yr. unfortunately the gfs has done fairly well in pattern recognition if not all specifics. One example that i can remember is the dec 26 storm where the euro had like 6 straight runs bombing all of us 130 hrs out while all the other guidance didn't have anything....the euro lost it and then they all picked it up again 48 hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 It's hard not to be pessimistic, but I won't start to really worry until there's a compelling reason. If 0z doesn't trend better then I will worry. That's great.. can these posts stop? Euro rolling yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 If 0z doesn't trend better then I will worry. 0z seems a bit arbitrary. That will still be circa 5 days out. Be it as it may I'm worried now. It's always an uphill battle for snowstorms here sans last year. But the way the models have jumped this year and what Lwx is discussing I'm not worried until inside 96 hours at least. Edit: very conscious of the contradiction lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 well wes has pointed out and i agree based on what we've seen that the euro has overamplified some storms this yr. unfortunately the gfs has done fairly well in pattern recognition if not all specifics. If the euro whiffs and never brings the storm back that would be at least 4 major stomrs that it forecast with a 1" liquid that didn't verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 That's great.. can these posts stop? Euro rolling yet? Just replying to Ian's post saying much the same thing. I'm sure someone will keep us in the loop when the Euro starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 euro is out to 90.. looks pretty much like 0z so far but it's just getting going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 hr 96 500 not to different precip coverage about the same just a smidge slower in tx ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 everything at 500 is slightly north of 0z thru 102 but it's pretty similar still.. precip moving thru east tx/ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 hr 102 trough axis a little slower (west)precip coverage about the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 the timing diff is very minor.. like a few hours at most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 hr 114 1008 low miss ala coast snow up to ky just a hair slower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 1008 n central gulf at 114.. looks juicier nr center. bend of 500 makes me think it wont be further ots at least and could end up north a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 he 120 1004 low sw ga snow into dc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 1004 s ga at 120.. snow streaming into dc area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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