Wonderdog Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 There are too many whining weenies in this thread. Good God Agreed. The GFS is right where we want it at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Don't you have more pressing worries then somebody posting the DGEX? You are the weenie master of the DGEX and early morning over-analysis of the 06Z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 i do see Phins point though, the DGEX is a very inaccurate model, and is only an extention of the NAM, so its not very good past 90 hrs . i dont really pay any attention to it, the only MET i even see use it is Margusity and its only when it shows a storm hitting him People can look at it if they want, but the intolerable thing is when they actually get "worried" about it not showing a hit. Folks do the same thing with the awful NOGAPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 compaerd to 0z looks like the ggem is going to be south as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Phin, what do you think about the 0z suite and 12z gfs? Do you think the OTS solution is favorable at this point or do you think the vort will be more juiced up and track further N&W? Temps are zero problem with system so that is good for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Phin, what do you think about the 0z suite and 12z gfs? Do you think the OTS solution is favorable at this point or do you think the vort will be more juiced up and track further N&W? He's checking his magic 8 ball and will get back to you shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 You are the weenie master I think that sums it up better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 i wouldnt worry too much but if everything is going south it might not be good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 He's checking his magic 8 ball and will get back to you shortly. hr120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg81988 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 can you explain midlo?? is that more suppressed or just what we want to see here in chesterfield? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
insanegrenade Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 00Z ECMWF has a very significant storm for the southern Mid-Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 He's checking his magic 8 ball and will get back to you shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 00Z ECMWF has a very significant storm for the southern Mid-Atlantic. umm your about 12 hrs late with that were on the 12z models lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 PLEASE, PLEASE FIVE POST ME. I CAN'T STOP SCREAMING AT EVERYONE BECAUSE I AM A WEENIE. Fixed your post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 ggem looks OK.. but as usual, i hate those maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 00Z ECMWF has a very significant storm for the southern Mid-Atlantic. Great breaking news alert from 11 hours ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Hmm I'd like to see the GFS come back soonish Me too but it's too early to fret yet. I keep thinking the southwestern vort should dig more than what the GFS is showing but there are so many shortwaves that it's really hard to make sense of anything so it could be right. I'm afraid this storm is going to be our last chance for awhile if the models are correct and the PNA pattern goes strongly negative like the models are forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 ggem looks OK.. but as usual, i hate those maps Me too...I looked at that 120hr and was excited that it looked great...but it is just OK I suppose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 He's checking his magic 8 ball and will get back to you shortly. LOL- Must of picked up that skill in chapter 2 of the JB textbook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
insanegrenade Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Great breaking news alert from 11 hours ago... sorry guys, was quoting my friend who knows more then me...didnt know that was from 11 hours ago. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Me too but it's too early to fret yet. I keep thinking the southwestern vort should dig more than what the GFS is showing but there are so many shortwaves that it's really hard to make sense of anything so it could be right. I'm afraid this storm is going to be our last chance for awhile if the models are correct and the PNA pattern goes strongly negative like the models are forecasting. Weren't you super-worried about a cutter this time yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 GGEM becoming more supressed too. Uh-oh at 132 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Me too but it's too early to fret yet. I keep thinking the southwestern vort should dig more than what the GFS is showing but there are so many shortwaves that it's really hard to make sense of anything so it could be right. I'm afraid this storm is going to be our last chance for awhile if the models are correct and the PNA pattern goes strongly negative like the models are forecasting. it's tough because there have certainly been waves that get washed out and the pattern is still rather busy. but we've also seen several vorts lately that are modeled too weak in the distance that strengthen on models as we get closer to game time. i could go for a break even though it might be ill timed as we're getting closer to the end of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 it's tough because there have certainly been waves that get washed out and the pattern is still rather busy. but we've also seen several vorts lately that are modeled too weak in the distance that strengthen on models as we get closer to game time. i could go for a break even though it might be ill timed as we're getting closer to the end of winter. A little luck and we hit climo snowfall for the winter. Even if it's winter cancel for the rest of the season, hitting climo throughout the area would be a huge victory considering what we were thinking about going in last fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Weren't you super-worried about a cutter this time yesterday? Not a lake cutter but the euro solution that was inland. If you read my blog, I also said it could be any solution and reiterated that in Jason's yesterday. I'm not that good and there were lots of ensembles that were east. I don't like having all the models showing an eastward look to them. I'd like to keep at least one that gives us a solid hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 This is going to be a close call and a struggle to keep it from going too far west as we near the event. At this point (114 hr GFS map below), I'd expect the vort to strengthen and start to tilt the trof negative. It's still west of Lake Michigan longitude which suggests to me it will try and ride west of the southern apps. Fortunately, we have some cold dry air in place, and perhaps the low will do a jump to the coast south of us keeping us all snow. If I was forecasting now, I'd go with a snow likely to start then snow/mix likely for the second half of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I'd like to keep at least one that gives us a solid hit. 12Z Euro coming up. If the Euro sticks to its guns with at least mod precip in the MA then the battle is on. If it comes in drier than 0Z or an OTS solution then well have an overwhelming consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 can you explain midlo?? is that more suppressed or just what we want to see here in chesterfield? for day 5 ---it loos to be in a good spot 00Z ECMWF has a very significant storm for the southern Mid-Atlantic. and you want your 5ppd lifted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 12Z Euro coming up. If the Euro sticks to its guns with at least mod precip in the MA then the battle is on. If it comes in drier than 0Z or an OTS solution then well have an overwhelming consensus. i;d still rather have a graze or ots than something perfect or headed inland at this pt. that works well most yrs tho maybe not this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 sorry guys, was quoting my friend who knows more then me...didnt know that was from 11 hours ago. lol. Learning zulu time is one of the first things you need to know how to do. Think about when the 00z GFS comes out - Euro is just a little later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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