I-83 BLIZZARD Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Everyone should just take a break to get rested for the snow. Maybe so, but for us weenies in the Baltimore north camp there is reason for some concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 It's good to remain skeptical... I won't say otherwise. H5 didn't look good but we all know this current solution won't verify. Models have been underestimating the vort strength all year. I believe we can only go north from here. Probably just the weenie in me talking though. Not sure you'd want the vort to get too amped, because of your location. All kidding aside, I definitely feel the same way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Maybe so, but for us weenies in the Baltimore north camp there is reason for some concern. 99% of the time there is reason for concern even 15 minutes before the event starts. Balt north is fine for now. Models won't get a good handle on the vort strength until Sun/Mon. If the squashed look is still there on Monday then the alarms can sound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 99% of the time there is reason for concern even 15 minutes before the event starts. Balt north is fine for now. Models won't get a good handle on the vort strength until Sun/Mon. If the squashed look is still there on Monday then the alarms can sound. 100% of the time, there is reason for concern, even while its snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 12Z NAM at 84 hrs doesn't look bad with a +PNA stretching to the arctic circle, if not of the North Pole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Where the heck is everyone this morning? Two possible storms this week and this place is like a ghost town. The majority of you must have hangovers from the winter of 2010 - 2011. (Or last night) What's the point in investing all the time analyzing 5 days out, based on prior outcomes and the model changes run-to-run? Easy enuf to look at new data at the end of the day and see what the trend is. Good morning to sleep in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 What's the point in investing all the time analyzing 5 days out, based on prior outcomes and the model changes run-to-run? Easy enuf to look at new data at the end of the day and see what the trend is. Good morning to sleep in. agree 100%.Too many people analyze a storm to death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 06Z DGEX is still showing a semi suppressed look with decent hit through Va and eastern shore of MD. PLEASE STOP POSTING THE DGEX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Everyone should just take a break to get rested for the snow. People are being really stupid on this one for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 and sometimes people take my comments about one model run and project way too much. I was not happy with the 0z euro...it was not a good run IMO, it trended worse at h5. That says nothing about my overall thoughts on the storm. You always revert back to this nonsense. You were very level-headed during the hoffman storm, and now you are back to crying and moaning for several pages over single model runs 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Maybe so, but for us weenies in the Baltimore north camp there is reason for some concern. Shut up. This time yesterday everyone was in mega-panic over an Apps runner. You bozos need to be five posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 People are being really stupid on this one for some reason. Wow... you're back. Glad you were finally able to take a break from this place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 You always revert back to this nonsense. You were very level-headed during the hoffman storm, and now you are back to crying and moaning for several pages over single model runs 5 days out. there were long periods he was absent. im sure he bailed in his head once or twice but had to hold up faith on the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 OTS not much above EZF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 so far only differences on gfs thru 90 hrs is on 500 mb, trough is a touch east of 06z, but not much differences so far thru 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 still too far off coast at 126, but this far out, i like it being off coast knowing it usually comes back west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 JB now calling the success of his phasing storm "tricky" and explains how it could fail what does THAT usually mean when he explains the bust possibility with any storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 HOW MANY TIMES HAVE WE SEEN THIS THIS WINTER? ONLY TO CORRECT MORE WEST AND NORTH CLOSER TO THE EVENT.. SAME DANCE NOT SURE Y SO MANY PEOPLE HAVE THERE PANTIES IN A WAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 JB now calling the success of his phasing storm "tricky" and explains how it could fail what does THAT usually mean when he explains the bust possibility with any storm? JB is also calling for the end of winter after next 2 weeks... just like hes been saying every 2 weeks this winter only to be wrong. i dont pay alot of attention to JB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Where's all that record cold air? LOL...I knew when the 12z euro yesterday showed a modified cold air mass after this storm that we weren't going to be seeing any real cold afterwords. Funny thing is that I've already heard the local guys talking about how cold it's gonna be at the end of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 im glad the GFS still has the storm( albeit off the coast) but almost every storm has trended west as it got closer especially with the GFS, so im just gonna hope the euro holds where it is , maybe a touch west of 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 JB now calling the success of his phasing storm "tricky" and explains how it could fail what does THAT usually mean when he explains the bust possibility with any storm? between him at DT i don't know which is funnier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Where's all that record cold air? LOL...I knew when the 12z euro yesterday showed a modified cold air mass after this storm that we weren't going to be seeing any real cold afterwords. Funny thing is that I've already heard the local guys talking about how cold it's gonna be at the end of the week. JB has been hyping the massive record cold all winter, but i havent seen nothing out of ordinary, its all hype . but the air mass thats coming just before next thursdays storm, wont have alot of time to modify, it should be plenty cold to snow in most areas from id say richmond north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 PLEASE STOP POSTING THE DGEX. Don't you have more pressing worries then somebody posting the DGEX? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 im glad the GFS still has the storm( albeit off the coast) but almost every storm has trended west as it got closer especially with the GFS, so im just gonna hope the euro holds where it is , maybe a tough west of 00z Even if the EURO comes further south and east it's okay...Monday Night 0z is when we should really start to worry unless of course we lose the storm all together between now and then...which won't happen...We need to let the next system come through on monday night before we can really get a good idea of the strength and track of our thursday storm.Bottom line is that I'm officially stoked about this system and the potential it has for Ric-Wash-Balt-Philly and NYC. I really think this could be our storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Hmm I'd like to see the GFS come back soonish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 There are too many whining weenies in this thread. Good God Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 GFS was a sheared OTS signature with the hoffman storm then went boom in one run. GFS tends to do the same thing over and over. No point in bitching over a storms bust potential 5-6 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Don't you have more pressing worries then somebody posting the DGEX? i do see Phins point though, the DGEX is a very inaccurate model, and is only an extention of the NAM, so its not very good past 90 hrs . i dont really pay any attention to it, the only MET i even see use it is Margusity and its only when it shows a storm hitting him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 GFS isn't horrible-- issues at 500 MB-- Very plausible outcome, as was the 12z EC yesterday. It seems like storm 1 does blow up well NE of Nova Scotia, the issue becomes how strong that vort can remain and issues with other smaller vorts in the flow, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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