NinjaWarrior2 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 How is this storm going to be a possible MECS with a +NAO/+AO/-PNA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 How is this storm going to be a possible MECS with a +NAO/+AO/-PNA? The coldest air of the winter is going to come down with/after this system, causing suppression. Things still might change but I like the chances of perfect timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 How is this storm going to be a possible MECS with a +NAO/+AO/-PNA? They will all be neutral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 How is this storm going to be a possible MECS with a +NAO/+AO/-PNA? Yeah this storm isn't going to happen. Maybe a flurry...but nothing much...i mean there is nothing to support any kind of storm along the east coast on thursday...the fact that everyone is talking about it is rediculous.... wowo...come on guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 06Z GFS Mean is very suppressed and looking at the individual members all have that look except for one that comes up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcwx Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Didn't the majority of the big storms last year show suppression at this range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 06Z GFS Mean is very suppressed and looking at the individual members all have that look except for one that comes up the coast. I'm sure you know but 2 days ago when everyone was freaking out that it was going to be an apps cutter all the GFS members were showing a western storm only to shift to a more supressed look the very next run. My point is that at this range anything can happen. From run to run things can shift big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Didn't the majority of the big storms last year show suppression at this range? GFS has a habit of suppressing them in the mid to long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 The coldest air of the winter is going to come down with/after this system, causing suppression. Things still might change but I like the chances of perfect timing. OK, I'll be waiting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Yeah this storm isn't going to happen. Maybe a flurry...but nothing much...i mean there is nothing to support any kind of storm along the east coast on thursday...the fact that everyone is talking about it is rediculous.... wowo...come on guys! You may be right due to suppression, but wth are you talking about otherwise? Really, there is a good chance and good support from modeling at this point that this storm could be at least a moderate event for us. The teleconnections aren't extremely favorable, but as we have all learned, you can have a big event with less than optimal conditions. There are things such as a good phase, perfect timing, or threading the needle that have to occur, but this may be one of those events where landing a hit is easier than usual if the models hold up. This stuff about a flurry, wait 'til you actually have something to back that up with. So you, come on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Yeah this storm isn't going to happen. Maybe a flurry...but nothing much...i mean there is nothing to support any kind of storm along the east coast on thursday...the fact that everyone is talking about it is rediculous.... wowo...come on guys! People are talking about what the models are showing. You do not know what may or may not happen as unless you can go back and show us that storms like this have never ever occurred in this pattern. Good luck with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Not saying we get a storm but I like where we are sitting right now. Euro is showing a storm and the GFS is suppressed. Over the years this has been a good signal for a storm up the east coast. Think the GFS is over doing the cold and bringing it in quicker then what will actually verify. This is probably the reason we have a suppressed and OTS look at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Even if it did whiff, complaining about the pattern 6 days out is useless. Give it 48 hrs on guidance. i have no clue why people are crying this is what makes the nyc philly threads so bad. folks how many times has ric been modeled in the jack pot and "GOT" the jack pot NONE this will either nail ORF or nail DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 i have no clue why people are crying this is what makes the nyc philly threads so bad. folks how many times has ric been modeled in the jack pot and "GOT" the jack pot NONE this will either nail ORF or nail DC Looked at the Euro ensemble mean and wasn't really impressed. Do you actually have access to all the maps and the individual members? If so, what was your impression? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 People are talking about what the models are showing. You do not know what may or may not happen as unless you can go back and show us that storms like this have never ever occurred in this pattern. Good luck with that. uh...i was being totally sarcastic... check out my other posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I predict that it will nail both Norfolk and DC. EURO and GFS both have a storm and it appears that cold will not be a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 We need that low over the lakes to go away. The HP just off of the Maine Coast is ok. At least we are not going to have temp issues. I think this will come further NW as we get closer. But man I am going to bust hard on the cutter Idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Looked at the Euro ensemble mean and wasn't really impressed. Do you actually have access to all the maps and the individual members? If so, what was your impression? what looks great to me will not look great to others. NW of dc not much on the mean at all, ORF is in the ens mean jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 what looks great to me will not look great to others. NW of dc not much on the mean at all, ORF is in the ens mean jackpot Can't tell with the 24 hr jumps but that's the impression I had looking at the freebies. Thanks for the follow up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Not saying we get a storm but I like where we are sitting right now. Euro is showing a storm and the GFS is suppressed. Over the years this has been a good signal for a storm up the east coast. Think the GFS is over doing the cold and bringing it in quicker then what will actually verify. This is probably the reason we have a suppressed and OTS look at this time. The euro is colder aloft compared to the GFS-- its a bitterly cold storm over VA-- as temps fall from -7 to -11 at h85 during the event. GFS squashes the vort a little more so its just a weaker system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 what looks great to me will not look great to others. NW of dc not much on the mean at all, ORF is in the ens mean jackpot Put me on the optimist side for this one. NWS is saying phasing is occurring earlier than what the surface suggests, so with the cold air in place I truly think this will be a solid hit from RIC to Bmore at least. +1 bust on the cutter idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Put me on the optimist side for this one. NWS is saying phasing is occurring earlier than what the surface suggests, so with the cold air in place I truly think this will be a solid hit from RIC to Bmore at least. +1 bust on the cutter idea. I agree. I'm riding LWX until further notice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 i have no clue why people are crying this is what makes the nyc philly threads so bad. folks how many times has ric been modeled in the jack pot and "GOT" the jack pot NONE this will either nail ORF or nail DC Thank you for saying what so many of us are thinking. This place is getting just as, if not more annoying than nyc/nj thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 The euro is colder aloft compared to the GFS-- its a bitterly cold storm over VA-- as temps fall from -7 to -11 at h85 during the event. GFS squashes the vort a little more so its just a weaker system. Looking over the 850's it looks like the GFS is colder and more progressive then the Euro over the eastern seaboard. JMO though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I think the low will track from new orleans to norfolk and thru the benchmark.. Rain Richmond, Heavy snow DCA North Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Man, i just caught back up since the 0Z GFS last night. I can't believe there is so much negativity. I don't see anything overly worrisome. In general we have a good track, decent strength LP, and enough cold air to not even worry about rain. Supressed look is fine even if it is right. It's the warm/west looks that should scare the crap out of us and there aren't any right now. I think we all know the odds are highly in our favor for the precip and LP to track further N and get us in on the goods. Even Philly/NY have plenty to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Hoffman, I love your insight, but reading through these pages from last night you really weenied out. Given that the uber-concern from just 24 hours ago was a cutter, and that there isn't a lot keeping this from coming back the little bit it needs to in order to hammer us all, those were indeed nice indications for a sizable storm. If this was showing a thumping for us now, you know we would be rightfully cognizant the liklihood of it ending up way to our west. Echo others, pretty good spot right now. and sometimes people take my comments about one model run and project way too much. I was not happy with the 0z euro...it was not a good run IMO, it trended worse at h5. That says nothing about my overall thoughts on the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Everyone should just take a break to get rested for the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Everyone should just take a break to get rested for the snow. Yup, Jeb is in his workshop oiling up the shovels and sharpening his sleet pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 and sometimes people take my comments about one model run and project way too much. I was not happy with the 0z euro...it was not a good run IMO, it trended worse at h5. That says nothing about my overall thoughts on the storm. It's good to remain skeptical... I won't say otherwise. H5 didn't look good but we all know this current solution won't verify. Models have been underestimating the vort strength all year. I believe we can only go north from here. Probably just the weenie in me talking though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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