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Ians Birthday Blizzard Bomb Bonanza BECS Feb 9-11


Ji

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Glad to have the old psuhoffman back.

I am not saying I think this run is right, but yea if the euro is right and I get some flurries while Richmond gets 12" and Norfolk gets another blizzard I would not be happy. Especially because this really is it. The pattern is going to snap really badly for us right after this storm and by the time things recover and we have another chance its going to be into March and thats a long shot.

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00z EURO was a strong signal for a huge snowstorm.

the euro does not have the southeast bias of the GFS. If the GFS was showing what the euro is right now I would be ecstatic. This GFS is even more suppressed so it could correct north and just end up near the Euro solution. Also....I am a good bit further NW then most of you in this thread so for places like HGR and myself we really need a lot more of a north trend from where the consensus is right now then many of you. Some of you down near Richmond are good right now and probably do not want much of a north trend. Unfortunately for me to be happy Richmond probably needs to get rain. We are looking at this from different perspectives. The Euro is south of where I want to see it right now.

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the euro does not have the southeast bias of the GFS. If the GFS was showing what the euro is right now I would be ecstatic. This GFS is even more suppressed so it could correct north and just end up near the Euro solution. Also....I am a good bit further NW then most of you in this thread so for places like HGR and myself we really need a lot more of a north trend from where the consensus is right now then many of you. Some of you down near Richmond are good right now and probably do not want much of a north trend. Unfortunately for me to be happy Richmond probably needs to get rain. We are looking at this from different perspectives. The Euro is south of where I want to see it right now.

As Earthlight said... 132 is a huge signal for a major east coast storm. Just a bit more digging and BAM! we all get hit.

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As Earthlight said... 132 is a huge signal for a major east coast storm. Just a bit more digging and BAM! we all get hit.

I don't really agree...if I lived south or east of DC I would love this run but the pattern does not look nearly as amped at h5 on any of the models lately. I liked the potential for a true full latitude trough and monster storm but the last 24 hours just about everything has shifted away from that idea.

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0z euro run really sucks, its a massive blizzard for NC and Norfolk, 20" plus, probably 10" back to about Richmond, a fringe job for DC, mostly dry for my area. Hopefully the euro is too suppressed.

F you....too many 12+ storms for you yokels in the last 2 years. RIC is due for one 10+ storm as it has been 11 years now. You people up there whine way too much......

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F you....too many 12+ storms for you yokels in the last 2 years. RIC is due for one 10+ storm since it has been 11 years now.

what are you talking about, Richmond had a 10" plus storm just last winter the end of January and finished last year way above normal in snowfall. Richmond has been on a hot streak the last 3 years since March of 09. Yes before that did suck but not sure what your talking about.

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what are you talking about, Richmond had a 10" plus storm just last winter the end of January and finished last year way above normal in snowfall. Richmond has been on a hot streak the last 3 years since March of 09. Yes before that did suck but not sure what your talking about.

The airport came in at 9.5 inches on Jan 30th-- even though Midlo went and measure 10 a day later!

I don't think you should be pissing on Richmond. They were 2.2 above normal last winter while DC to Philly was 4x above normal. Richmond is more due then any other town from VA north.

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The airport came in at 9.5 inches on Jan 30th-- even though Midlo went and measure 10 a day later!

I don't think you should be pissing on Richmond. They were 2.2 above normal last winter while DC to Philly was 4x above normal. Richmond is more due then any other town from VA north.

no one is pissing on Richmond, but they are doing alright this winter also...aren't they up near normal already in snowfall? As for being due, you are probably right, but that does not mean i am going to root for them to get snow because that would screw me over.

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The airport came in at 9.5 inches on Jan 30th-- even though Midlo went and measure 10 a day later!

I don't think you should be pissing on Richmond. They were 2.2 above normal last winter while DC to Philly was 4x above normal. Richmond is more due then any other town from VA north.

Disagree.....folks in State College area have been utterly shafted.

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no one is pissing on Richmond, but they are doing alright this winter also...aren't they up near normal already in snowfall? As for being due, you are probably right, but that does not mean i am going to root for them to get snow because that would screw me over.

Snowman.gifSnowman.gif

Tell me, Mr I took 2 years of Met at PSU-- what are the odds the EC verifies as is from this RUN on Thursday??

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True, State College has been in a bad spot as well--- the past two winters.

Richmond is probably in one of the longest 12inch+ for a single storm droughts than any other city north of the NC/Va state border. >> <<; Bad luck on not being in the sweet spots despite the multitude of south east/ Mid Atlantic snow storms.

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Snowman.gifSnowman.gif

Tell me, Mr I took 2 years of Met at PSU-- what are the odds the EC verifies as is from this RUN on Thursday??

my issues are not based on one run of one model. All the guidance has been getting less amped for the last few runs. The euro is the most amped of all and its a miss for me still. The trend has been for the H5 to dig less and wash out a bit as its lifting east instead of digging and really going to town. That is the trend I would like to see stop, I could care less what the surface solution is right now, but the overall pattern is trending more progressive and less amped for this storm.

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PSUhoffman is correct! The January 30-31st event was in fact an official 10" event for Richmond. The airport number was 9.5" on January 30th and 0.5" on the 31st.....so 10.0" officially. The January 1996 storm had a similar number.

Although we were close in January 2000, but it's an official 12" event that we havent had since the February 1983 storm when we got 18" officially.

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my issues are not based on one run of one model. All the guidance has been getting less amped for the last few runs. The euro is the most amped of all and its a miss for me still. The trend has been for the H5 to dig less and wash out a bit as its lifting east instead of digging and really going to town. That is the trend I would like to see stop, I could care less what the surface solution is right now, but the overall pattern is trending more progressive and less amped for this storm.

:weenie::weenie::weenie:

Even if it did whiff, complaining about the pattern 6 days out is useless. Give it 48 hrs on guidance.

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From LWX updated at 4:30a

".LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --EXCESSIVELY COLD AMS WILL RMN ENTRENCHED IN OHVLY AND GRTLKS RGN

THRU RMNDR OF WK. SRN STREAM SHRTWV TROF AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC

REFLECTION WILL PHASE MORE EFFECTIVELY THU WITH ONE OF THE SERIES

OF NRN STREAM SHRTWV TROFS. SUCH PHASING SUGGESTS THAT THE SLOWER

TIMING INDICATED IN ECMWF MAY BE MORE LKLY SCENARIO. THIS TIMING

ALSO SUGGESTS THAT THE ASSOCIATED COASTAL LOPRES MAY DVLP FARTHER

WWD THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED.

IN EITHER CASE...THIS TIMING YIELDS GREATEST PCPN CHCS WED NGT AND

THU AS LOPRES MOVES SE OF FCST AREA. MORE THAN SUFFICIENT COLD AIR

WILL BE IN PLACE TO GENERATE POTENTIALLY HEADLINE-WORTHY SNOW.

THIS CONCERN HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO AND WILL CONT THEREIN."

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Hoffman, I love your insight, but reading through these pages from last night you really weenied out. Given that the uber-concern from just 24 hours ago was a cutter, and that there isn't a lot keeping this from coming back the little bit it needs to in order to hammer us all, those were indeed nice indications for a sizable storm. If this was showing a thumping for us now, you know we would be rightfully cognizant the liklihood of it ending up way to our west. Echo others, pretty good spot right now.

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:weenie::weenie::weenie:

Even if it did whiff, complaining about the pattern 6 days out is useless. Give it 48 hrs on guidance.

+1 Most times we know how these storms are going to trend 5-6 out. Frankly when the GFS was showing this area getting hit a day or two ago, i didn't like it since that meant congrats Chicago. I like right where the models are at this time.:popcorn:

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Is this yet another case of a powerful cold surge falling short? If so, I don't think anybody should be surprised if this ends up further north and west than indicated now. Look where the low today and the heaviest precip are and compare that to where it was supposed to be 4 or 5 days ago.

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