Yeoman Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 burp or legit? great post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 18z GFS... right where we want it???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Another OK run of the GFS. Let it stay washed out at this range. No cutters, please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I sure would have like it to bounce west a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Another OK run of the GFS. Let it stay washed out at this range. No cutters, please. We're sitting pretty good...Euro nice and GFS surpressed with 6 days to go...we can all enjoy our Friday until about 11:15 pm tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I sure would have like it to bounce west a little. Why? I'm glad it is where it is at this stage of the game. Inside 100 hours is where I want to start seeing some movement. Between this and the ultra wrapped up GGEM/UK? I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Yea, if were going to have a big swing with the GFS, this is definitely OK for us IMO. Even if is does eventually miss, squashed and OTS is just fine. The less runs that show an amped up and west solution the better. Either way, we gotta let the weekend system crank up and move N of the US first before we can really feel confident in what is going to happen. Now that we have a McFarland signature in the mix, anything can happen. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 why is the gfs losing the vort as it comes east? it looks like it would want to take a decent track if it did not disappear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 why is the gfs losing the vort as it comes east? it looks like it would want to take a decent track if it did not disappear. i think were entering the goofy period for GFS , usually from now till about 72 hrs before the GFS does the CHA CHA CHA that margusity is always talking about lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 last 2 days of runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Yea, if were going to have a big swing with the GFS, this is definitely OK for us IMO. Even if is does eventually miss, squashed and OTS is just fine. The less runs that show an amped up and west solution the better. Either way, we gotta let the weekend system crank up and move N of the US first before we can really feel confident in what is going to happen. Now that we have a McFarland signature in the mix, anything can happen. lol It's actually not until the Tuesday cold front blows through that we'll really be able to feel confident about any one solution. The strength of that storm as it wraps up into the canadian maritimes will impact the track/strength of the thursday storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 18Z GFS mean squashes it out to sea as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Does anyone here really think that a supressed and out to sea solution is the likely outcome? Possible? Absolutely but I don't think it is likely. Midlo's graphic is a bit concerning though because the most recent runs show the vort becoming weak as a kitten and the flow does have an OTS look. If the runs over the weekend start to amp the vort up a bit then we are easily back into model porn territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 last 2 days of runs From nothing to blizzard to rainstorm to blizzard to nothing. Good ole GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Does anyone here really think that a supressed and out to sea solution is the likely outcome? Possible? Absolutely but I don't think it is likely. Midlo's graphic is a bit concerning though because the most recent runs show the vort becoming weak as a kitten and the flow does have an OTS look. If the runs over the weekend start to amp the vort up a bit then we are easily back into model porn territory. i wouldnt be too concerned yet. the gfs (or models as a whole) have been known to do things like this in the mid-range. overall the gfs consistency in vort placement is probably good assuming it's wrong in washing it out like it has lately. as long as we have the euro on our side we should feel OK as well. of course that could just be a few more hours so enjoy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 i wouldnt be too concerned yet. the gfs (or models as a whole) have been known to do things like this in the mid-range. overall the gfs consistency in vort placement is probably good assuming it's wrong in washing it out like it has lately. as long as we have the euro on our side we should feel OK as well. of course that could just be a few more hours so enjoy it. I'm looking forward to it showing a blizzard next week and watching the board go crazy. Weeping, wailing, and knashing of teeth and then euphoria. What a clinic in human emotion. That's always priceless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Does anyone here really think that a supressed and out to sea solution is the likely outcome? Possible? Absolutely but I don't think it is likely. Midlo's graphic is a bit concerning though because the most recent runs show the vort becoming weak as a kitten and the flow does have an OTS look. If the runs over the weekend start to amp the vort up a bit then we are easily back into model porn territory. Since we lost the blocking every vort has been amped up, case in point how the models are now amping Mon/Tues. Part of Nina climo. And going west is and will be a bigger threat with this storm than surpression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 DGEX is a minor/mod hit, with mod/major hit to the south of DCA/BWI .....perfect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 DGEX is a minor/mod hit, with mod/major hit to the south of DCA/BWI .....perfect I am retracting my statement from yesterday... I think the GFS will look better at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 DGEX is a minor/mod hit, with mod/major hit to the south of DCA/BWI .....perfect Gotta admit at this point. I'm kinda buying into the potential. Enough is on the table to move this threat from fantasy to legit. Oddly enough, ground is still pretty much covered with glacial snow. Even my south facing slope is pretty much 100% covered. Normal 10-1 snow would have been long gone at this point. Some may survive the rain and warm temps through Monday. Snow on snow?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Gotta admit at this point. I'm kinda buying into the potential. Enough is on the table to move this threat from fantasy to legit. Oddly enough, ground is still pretty much covered with glacial snow. Even my south facing slope is pretty much 100% covered. Normal 10-1 snow would have been long gone at this point. Some may survive the rain and warm temps through Monday. Snow on snow?? I agree with you Bob. Next week is looking interesting to say the least... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 84 hour nam! Energy is digging pretty far west on the 0z 84 hour nam when compared to the 18z GFS at the same time frame at hour 90. Surface feature wise it has an area of lower pressure near the Texas Panhandle/Oklahoma state Border. The 18z gfs at this time had the low about 50 miles further South at that time. Probably bad idea to compare 84 hour nam... to the 90 hour 18z gfs run anyway. Just taking notes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 gfs is further north so far with the precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 GFS almost has no southern stream energy again...not sure its gonna produce much this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 better some snow but the gfs is still all over the place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Kill that lakes low.. KILL IT now! I really hope that thing does not become a bigger player. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Still not much of a storm, but it did reverse the trend somewhat and brought the pitiful low back to a good track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 not a bad run this far out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 It's a horrible run. It shows flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 It's a horrible run. It shows flurries. um...well than last run was the hell run because it had nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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