CarolineWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 HPC is going with the La Nina track...OHiO/West Virginia...HPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 HPC is going with the La Nina track...OHiO/West Virginia...HPC That was yesterday's discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 euro ens mean is basically ots.. does get some snow up into dc area tho 0z-12z fri Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Where's the apps runner? Seriously, it seems by reading that this is a pretty big jump by the Euro. The GFS took quite a leap at 500 itself. Maybe this is a sign that we really are in a guessing game at this point. Pretty hard to be excited under those circumstances. Do the odds favor a storm in this setup? Is this the one time that the cold air actually comes? We've been in a guessing game all winter, haven't we? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJDC Wx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 euro ens mean is basically ots.. does get some snow up into dc area tho 0z-12z fri Based on latest trends, I'm more worried about this going OTS than an apps runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I feel good about this storm. I feel good about most storms 7 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I feel good about most storms 7 days out. 6-7 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Based on latest trends, I'm more worried about this going OTS than an apps runner. Agreed. Though I like the trends since yesterday in just about every sense. From an inland runner to a hit on the Euro and a hit on the GFS to an OTS...in a Nina year I'd rather trend S and E than N and W. You can bet on that happening as we get closer to the event anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Based on latest trends, I'm more worried about this going OTS than an apps runner. there are no trends. just be confident what you see on the models now is unlikely to happen as shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 there are no trends. just be confident what you see on the models now is unlikely to happen as shown. Yeah. We are definitely in 8-ball territory right now. I'm not so sure Mon/Tues isn't going to get interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 there are no trends. just be confident what you see on the models now is unlikely to happen as shown. I think that statement is both true and false in a sense. The trends are definitely illusions in the sense that the only solution is what actually happens. But at the same time when you are attempting to predict and event you look at where the model is taking the solutions with every run. It's kind of complicated but I think saying that there are no trends is kind of like saying throw out every solution until 12z Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I think that statement is both true and false in a sense. The trends are definitely illusions in the sense that the only solution is what actually happens. But at the same time when you are attempting to predict and event you look at where the model is taking the solutions with every run. It's kind of complicated but I think saying that there are no trends is kind of like saying throw out every solution until 12z Wed. in a true sense models dont trend. they dont remember what they showed last run, they just spit out whatever the inputs formulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 in a true sense models dont trend. they dont remember what they showed last run, they just spit out whatever the inputs formulate. Yes but isn't it true that they also show more "true" effects and outcomes of features (in theory) with every run? Nascent and present features should be more identifiable and therefore solutions working towards more accurately presented outcomes. With more veritable features being displayed shouldn't every runs kind of "trend" towards the solution? That way each run gives a better idea of what slution a model will run in future runs. Take yesterday to today for example. I think we learned a lot about where the models will be going with this storm. Wouldn't it be fair to say that the models are trending away from an inland runner towards a more coastal solution? Yeah, the trend is all illusion in the sense that the only outcome is what happens, but in terms of forecasting I think a lot of the battle is looking at trends on models. Isn't that what ensemble runs are? You're pretty much averaging operationals to get a sense of where they are heading. But I guess this debate is kind of splitting hairs in how you look at it. I definitely see your perspective on model runs, for each run is individual of the last. All that you perceive I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Yes but isn't it true that they also show more "true" effects and outcomes of features (in theory) with every run? Nascent and present features should be more identifiable and therefore solutions working towards more accurately presented outcomes. With more veritable features being displayed shouldn't every runs kind of "trend" towards the solution? That way each run gives a better idea of what slution a model will run in future runs. Take yesterday to today for example. I think we learned a lot about where the models will be going with this storm. Wouldn't it be fair to say that the models are trending away from an inland runner towards a more coastal solution? Yeah, the trend is all illusion in the sense that the only outcome is what happens, but in terms of forecasting I think a lot of the battle is looking at trends on models. Isn't that what ensemble runs are? You're pretty much averaging operationals to get a sense of where they are heading. But I guess this debate is kind of splitting hairs in how you look at it. I definitely see your perspective on model runs, for each run is individual of the last. All that you perceive I guess. at this range and because part of it may have to do with the predecessor low i dont think we've gained much if any insight into the ultimate solution. the 0z runs could just as easily 'trend' back well west imo. theoretically once you get into the shorter range each run should be better as features are better sampled and more accurately identified. in a chaotic pattern it's possible a model will miss a key item even down toward the wire tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 a statistician would slap you in the face with a cold fish for inferring a trend from two data points. Yes but isn't it true that they also show more "true" effects and outcomes of features (in theory) with every run? Nascent and present features should be more identifiable and therefore solutions working towards more accurately presented outcomes. With more veritable features being displayed shouldn't every runs kind of "trend" towards the solution? That way each run gives a better idea of what slution a model will run in future runs. Take yesterday to today for example. I think we learned a lot about where the models will be going with this storm. Wouldn't it be fair to say that the models are trending away from an inland runner towards a more coastal solution? Yeah, the trend is all illusion in the sense that the only outcome is what happens, but in terms of forecasting I think a lot of the battle is looking at trends on models. Isn't that what ensemble runs are? You're pretty much averaging operationals to get a sense of where they are heading. But I guess this debate is kind of splitting hairs in how you look at it. I definitely see your perspective on model runs, for each run is individual of the last. All that you perceive I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 WOW Thats all i have to say to most of you here. Guys why in the hell are you getting excited here. You know dam well in the next couple of days this witll be a nyc to boston storm.. Dont fight the trends. Richmond will be rain Dc north maybe snow to start nyc north seems like the better bet. IT WILL CONTINUE TO SNOW WHERE IT HAS ALL WINTER.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 a statistician would slap you in the face with a cold fish for inferring a trend from two data points. I was trying to propose a quasi mathematic perspective on predicting future runs by extrapolating the new relevant features being seen on past model runs but I'm not a met so I'll just back down. Though I have seen the word trend juxtaposed with pertinent model runs by many mets, many of them pretty credible. And they weren't talking about climo trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 WOW Thats all i have to say to most of you here. Guys why in the hell are you getting excited here. You know dam well in the next couple of days this witll be a nyc to boston storm.. Dont fight the trends. Richmond will be rain Dc north maybe snow to start nyc north seems like the better bet. IT WILL CONTINUE TO SNOW WHERE IT HAS ALL WINTER.... Thundersnow Jan 26th? Midwest blizz? S/E snow in DEC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 it's a semantic argument...i was just messing with you... people use the word "trend" but it's not really correct to use I was trying to propose a quasi mathematic perspective on predicting future runs by extrapolating the new relevant features being seen on past model runs but I'm not a met so I'll just back down. Though I have seen the word trend juxtaposed with pertinent model runs by many mets, many of them pretty credible. And they weren't talking about climo trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I hope you are a troll. Not a troll. I think i have valid points here.. Will see. Ill bookmark my post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I guess the weather debate was not enough. So here we are debating the english language in a weather thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lester Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 <br />WOW Thats all i have to say to most of you here. Guys why in the hell are you getting excited here. You know dam well in the next couple of days this witll be a nyc to boston storm.. Dont fight the trends. Richmond will be rain Dc north maybe snow to start nyc north seems like the better bet. IT WILL CONTINUE TO SNOW WHERE IT HAS ALL WINTER....<br /><br /><br /><br />Dallas, Texas says hi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 This storm is dependent on how the one coming on the 8th. I agree with the one who said the stronger this storm becomes as it moves out will help set up the eventual track for the system in question. The stronger system to the east out over the water should help lower the heights in the east to enable a further east track for the low on the 9th-11th. So we really won't get a feel for the track until we get a better idea on how the storm on the 8th is going to develop. That being said.. 12z runs have shifted everything further east for the 9nth-11th storm...... it could easily go back the other way if the first storm does not strengthen as currently modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 CPC http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 So far, at 114, 18z GFS looks slight more amp'd in front of the s/w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 lol, 18z GFS says: what storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 burp or legit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Best news yet that the GFS lost it at this range. Less chance it ends up in the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 18z crushed a fairly healthy looking low in the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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