Quasievil Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 dc area has a pretty good buffer for now.. 0c 850 never gets out of extreme se va I should've brought an extra pair of underwear to work. Didn't see this run of the Euro coming AT ALL. WOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 extreme cold cancel after the storm -8c at best I don't care if we get highs in the 40's after this storm as long as it's 8" plus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Looks good. Glad the Euro backed away from the west/wrapped up look. GFS is just where we want it. GGEM all alone. If things look this way at 0z tonight, I'll issue a face book alert and first first guess at an estimation. but its going to rain, everyone said so after the 12z euro yesterday. We should talk about that run some more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 How many mid-range MECs has the Euro shown so far this winter? 5-6? The one MECS that actually did verify was forecast to be rain in the mid-range. You've got to figure law of averages here that one of these monsters will come through and the Euro will rise again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I should've brought an extra pair of underwear to work. Didn't see this run of the Euro coming AT ALL. WOW. it's good the solutions are still spitting these runs out. it's probably becoming less likely it will go way west. tho we still need another 48 hours or so to get much of any confidence in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I should've brought an extra pair of underwear to work. Didn't see this run of the Euro coming AT ALL. WOW. I know, the models have been so consistent this yea, especially the euro, that this was just completely out of left field. I mean every storm the models have just locked in at day 10 and never flipped at all, this was just unbelievable. I think there must have been bad data because there is no way with how superior and consistent the guidance has been this winter that I would expect a shift like this to be possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 IAd only 1.20 qpf but wicked ratios lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 What we really need to key on here is the Mon/Tues system. If it blows up and gets sub 970.. we have a good chance IMO. If it doesn't blow up... it cuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Ji.. hows that JMA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 lol he's been around me too much this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 How many mid-range MECs has the Euro shown so far this winter? 5-6? The one MECS that actually did verify was forecast to be rain in the mid-range. You've got to figure law of averages here that one of these monsters will come through and the Euro will rise again. Flip a coin and get heads 10 times still 50 % shot at heads the next flip. That being said I think what's more important is that the Euro just put the pieces on the table for a good set up. It was pretty much in line with what Wes was looking for yesterday to get excited about this one. Out of nowhere this Tuesday Low gets amped up, confluence is great. We are dealing with a storm that wants to lift up but can't due to confluence, kind of like feb. 5 last year. That's a beautiful thing. No way the GFS is handling this right at this moment IMHO. I think contrary to popular belief that the Euro has actually been better in the medium range as of late, as it is known to be. I was skeptical about this yesterday but this 50 50 idea has rekindled a lot of hope for me. The GFS yesterday was fantasy land, this is for real. Plus, for those of us D.C./Cent MD folks, there is a good deal of buffer to allow this thing to lift more than currently modeled. I really like this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 it's good the solutions are still spitting these runs out. it's probably becoming less likely it will go way west. tho we still need another 48 hours or so to get much of any confidence in that. Are we seeing a move from a storm spun up from a massive push of artic air to a typical coastal due to a 50/50? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Looks good. Glad the Euro backed away from the west/wrapped up look. GFS is just where we want it. GGEM all alone. If things look this way at 0z tonight, I'll issue a face book alert and first first guess at an estimation. jma looks good so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 This pattern is still a tough one for the models to get the details right this early so expect them to continue flopping around. I like what I see today better than yesterday but much depends on the strength and timing of the southern stream which is going to vary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 This pattern is still a tough one for the models to get the details right this early so expect them to continue flopping around. I like what I see today better than yesterday but much depends on the strength and timing of the southern stream which is going to vary. Still sounds like you have a positive outlook, Wes!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I know, the models have been so consistent this yea, especially the euro, that this was just completely out of left field. I mean every storm the models have just locked in at day 10 and never flipped at all, this was just unbelievable. I think there must have been bad data because there is no way with how superior and consistent the guidance has been this winter that I would expect a shift like this to be possible. You are on a roll today. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Are we seeing a move from a storm spun up from a massive push of artic air to a typical coastal due to a 50/50? at the very least due to a potent southern stream. it has a look much more like our typical snowstorms. Doesn't mean it's right but I like this look better than yesterday's but the euro could always be overamping the southern stream. This early it's impossible to say. I don't trust the GFS out to sea solution. The euro or something in between the two models looks more reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 No high off the coast at all. Looks alot better on this run. I may have to eat my words if its still looking like this 0z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cajuncook Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Still sounds like you have a positive outlook, Wes!!!! He's bullish for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I know, the models have been so consistent this yea, especially the euro, that this was just completely out of left field. I mean every storm the models have just locked in at day 10 and never flipped at all, this was just unbelievable. I think there must have been bad data because there is no way with how superior and consistent the guidance has been this winter that I would expect a shift like this to be possible. Wait... are you joking around? Ha! I guess I was just waiting for it to trend further west and it didn't. Funny is that in previous years we would be jumping all over this because the Euro had it. Not this year as we know how poor it's been at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 No high off the coast at all. Looks alot better on this run. I may have to eat my words if its still looking like this 0z tomorrow. Try 0z Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 JMA is a big northern NC va hit then ots south of the benchmark turn your head to the right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Where's the apps runner? Seriously, it seems by reading that this is a pretty big jump by the Euro. The GFS took quite a leap at 500 itself. Maybe this is a sign that we really are in a guessing game at this point. Pretty hard to be excited under those circumstances. Do the odds favor a storm in this setup? Is this the one time that the cold air actually comes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feb11th1983 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 LOL so true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 JMA is a big northern NC va hit then ots south of the benchmark turn your head to the right Thanks for the directions. I went left and Bermuda looked oddly shaped like japan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 What we really need to key on here is the Mon/Tues system. If it blows up and gets sub 970.. we have a good chance IMO. If it doesn't blow up... it cuts Doesn't the GFS show the scenario of the early system blowing up and shoving our storm out? Seems like a fine line here. I've been burned more by suppressed or east than I have by west, so my worry isn't west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 BOM Baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowden Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Rotated! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 isn't the JMA from Japan? Why are the heading in French? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 Euro has been stubborn this past month once it locks on a storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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