yoda Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 LWX already has 50 POP in some of their zones for snow Wed night and Thurs... I would think thats a bit high for this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 much colder 0c runs through ric bit we know it will head west over the next few days It very well may but the arctic air to the west of the storm has a lot more push that the typical modified Canadian stuff. It will be at least interesting to watch how the deep cold air behind the system reacts as the LP develops. Maybe we get a wall of cold that won't let the west trend happen. Just a thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 What is a McFarland signature? I don't think I've ever heard that term before. It's a pattern conducive to getting below freezing temperatures into the rio grande area. You used to be able to google a southern region tech memo on the subject but I tried and couldn't find it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 The 6z GFS maps at 150 look so nice.. I wish it was tomorrow But we get more precip than BOS/NYC... so it must be wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Thanks Wes. I read the link that MVClimo posted. Good read and now I know just enough about the McFarland signature to be dangerous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 The 6z GFS maps at 150 llook so nice.. I wish it was tomorrow Not only that, it's going to be booger freezing cold afterwards. The fantasy snow will be going nowhere in fantasy cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 How many storms this year have gone west? When is the last time a storm ran the Apps? How much model or ensemble support does a west of the Apps scenario have? I'm seeing alot of talk about this storm heading west, but not seeing much support for it. Maybe it's there and I'm just missing it. Can somebody point me in the right direction? Maybe we just had a great storm miss us to the west and we're paranoid? Just asking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Given the amount of cold/dry air we will have in place mid week, I like our chances of at least some snow...even if we change over due to a track to our west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 How many storms this year have gone west? When is the last time a storm ran the Apps? How much model or ensemble support does a west of the Apps scenario have? I'm seeing alot of talk about this storm heading west, but not seeing much support for it. Maybe it's there and I'm just missing it. Can somebody point me in the right direction? Maybe we just had a great storm miss us to the west and we're paranoid? Just asking. Just look at the 500 map. There is nothing to keep a wound up storm from going west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Just look at the 500 map. There is nothing to keep a wound up storm from going west. Actually there is. If our Monday/Tuesday system blows up... we can use that as a semi-block for our late week system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Just look at the 500 map. There is nothing to keep a wound up storm from going west. On what? And, are we overlooking a potential storm around the 4 day mark while we look ahead to the 6-7 day threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Re: storms going west this year...there was that monster in Minnesota the collapsed the roof of the Metrodome in December and there was that monster last week that ran from Texas up to Indiana and buried Oklahoma through Chicago and points north and northeast of Chicago. I don't recall any apps runners of note per se. I suspect there have been other lakes cutters I am forgetting about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Re: storms going west this year...there was that monster in Minnesota the collapsed the roof of the Metrodome in December and there was that monster last week that ran from Texas up to Indiana and buried Oklahoma through Chicago and points north and northeast of Chicago. I don't recall any apps runners of note per se. I suspect there have been other lakes cutters I am forgetting about. I don't think that you are. Those are the only two storms of any consequence going to our west. The Jan 11 storm seemed more of a clipper to me. As for a storm that truly ran the Apps, I have no memories of a storm doing that. I'm sure it has happened somewhere, sometime, but I don't remember it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 this storm wont run up the apps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I don't think that you are. Those are the only two storms of any consequence going to our west. The Jan 11 storm seemed more of a clipper to me. As for a storm that truly ran the Apps, I have no memories of a storm doing that. I'm sure it has happened somewhere, sometime, but I don't remember it. There were also two or three miller b's that left us dry slotted. The euro solution is a viable on but so is the gfs. The problem with the latter is we have a positive nao instead of a negative one and the ridge position still is far enough west to be troubling and gives room for a westward shift like the euro is doing if the northern stream sharpens a little more than forecast by the gfs. If we're lucky, that won't happen but is a possibility. The pattern looks very similar to the first Jan 1987 storm but that storm had a strongly negative nao and this one doesn't. That's a pretty significant difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 this storm wont run up the apps But it could be an inland runner like the euro is forecasting which still could change to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 But it could be an inland runner like the euro is forecasting which still could change to rain yeah, i just dont think it will run up the apps. that almost never happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherboss Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I don't think that you are. Those are the only two storms of any consequence going to our west. The Jan 11 storm seemed more of a clipper to me. As for a storm that truly ran the Apps, I have no memories of a storm doing that. I'm sure it has happened somewhere, sometime, but I don't remember it. Exactly what I thought when I saw... ....AMIDST HIGH UNCERTAINTY...I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SUBSEQUENT RUNS TREND EVEN FARTHER W WITH THIS STORM NEXT WEEK TOWARDS THE FAVORED LA NINA TRACK THRU THE OH VLY/WRN FOOTHILLS OFTHE APPALACHIANS. We haven't seen storms follow the favored La Nina track all winter.... We'll see but, if they're going to go by what we've seen so far this winter, then if this misses us, it'll be because it was more OTS...not an apps runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Exactly what I thought when I saw... We haven't seen storms follow the favored La Nina track all winter.... We'll see but, if they're going to go by what we've seen so far this winter, then if this misses us, it'll be because it was more OTS...not an apps runner. what about the last storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 what about the last storm? how about tomorrow's too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 There were also two or three miller b's that left us dry slotted. The euro solution is a viable on but so is the gfs. The problem with the latter is we have a positive nao instead of a negative one and the ridge position still is far enough west to be troubling and gives room for a westward shift like the euro is doing if the northern stream sharpens a little more than forecast by the gfs. If we're lucky, that won't happen but is a possibility. The pattern looks very similar to the first Jan 1987 storm but that storm had a strongly negative nao and this one doesn't. That's a pretty significant difference. Looked to me as though the 00z GFS and Euro as well as their ensembles had an east based block in that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 how about tomorrow's too? i've already buried that guy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Looked to me as though the 00z GFS and Euro as well as their ensembles had an east based block in that time frame. We NEED the block to form or we're toast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I hardly ever read the State College AFD, but from the 2/4/11 @ 620am disco: ''High amplitude/phasing long-wave trough will form over the miss valley and spin-up a significant storm near the Gulf Coast Wednesday...and carry it northeastward to somewhere along the Carolina/middle Atlantic coast Thursday'' Unrelated but .... Kool image (time-sensitive): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 man that low at 90 hours bombs out to 960 in the next few panels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 man that low at 90 hours bombs out to 960 in the next few panels I don't want to see that damn rain smiley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 The h5 map at 84/90 hours makes me furious. Damn you northern stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherboss Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 what about the last storm? Yeah winter mentioned that. But it is now February. In over two months we've only had one or two storms follow that track with this strong a La Nina. Would that be the exception or the rule? Strangeness rules this winter.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I don't want to see that damn rain smiley trust me i cringe when i post it. this run is colder and furter south so far lets see where it goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Yeah winter mentioned that. But it is now February. In over two months we've only had one or two storms follow that track with this strong a La Nina. Would that be the exception or the rule? Strangeness rules this winter.... the strong block did not support it as well.. without it nina should try a little harder to prevail. but if we really do have a massive arctic outbreak on the backside it's going to have trouble going way west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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