showmethesnow Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Looking at the 00Z suite of the GFS and Euro Ops as well as their Ensemble means they are showing an east based block during this period. With the feature that moves through on Monday into Tuesday with the configuration of the blocking it allows it to escape. With this setup there is much that can go wrong for our area if you are looking for snow. I think what we may want to look for on future runs is if they start showing the block strengthening and becoming more west based. If we can get that, I think the Monday-Tuesday Feature becomes our 50/50 low and it's game on for a MEC for a good portion of the East Coast including pretty far south into the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 6z GFS still showing the storm in a good spot for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 6z GFS still showing the storm in a good spot for us. Shows a nice storm for Central VA and southern MD. Like the semi suppressed look it shows as well. Gives a little room for the inevitable NW trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Looked over the 00Z GFS ensemble members and they were mostly east of guidance which should be a good thing at this time. Was some spread on the timing though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Looking at the 500's on the 06Z GFS, it has northern energy diving right on the heels of our southern energy. If that northern energy is a little quicker or the southern a little slower we are basically pooched without a decent block and a 50/50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 we need euro to trend to gfs, IMO GFS has been more accurate this winter then euro. but gods only knows with this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 we need euro to trend to gfs, IMO GFS has been more accurate this winter then euro. but gods only knows with this winter Did the Euro trend at all on the 00Z...west or east...from 12Z...can't see it at work... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 we need euro to trend to gfs, IMO GFS has been more accurate this winter then euro. but gods only knows with this winter Really don't have an opinion between the two. With the limited maps available and 24 hour jumps with the Euro that I have access to it's hard to judge. I've considered paying for the full access but I'm a cheap SOB. Just ask my wife. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Looking at the 500's on the 06Z GFS, it has northern energy diving right on the heels of our southern energy. If that northern energy is a little quicker or the southern a little slower we are basically pooched without a decent block and a 50/50. The standard threading of the needle. Based on how this winter has gone I would prefer the northern vort to just disappear. It alone has messed up more storms than I care to count Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Haven't looked at the members yet but the mean would lead me to think that the members are still at odds with each other. For what it's worth the 06Z GFS ensemble mean still looks good with it being southeast of the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 The standard threading of the needle. Based on how this winter has gone I would prefer the northern vort to just disappear. It alone has messed up more storms than I care to count Yeah but that would cause other problems in and of itself. As much as it screwed us earlier this year blocking is what we need for high probability snow shots. We were just really unlucky in December. Nine times out of ten that kind of set up gives us a lot of snow. I've been skeptical about this event since the get go. IMHO the Euro is leading the way, as I'm fairly sure it did with last week's Midwest blizzard but I can't be certain because I as well am averse to sifting through the Euro's 24 hour jumps. I wouldn't be surprised if this storm shifted either way because of the fact that it is a thread the needle situation once again. But hey, TTN worked for us once this year on Jan 26th, maybe it can again. We do have that fresh arctic air in place but on that note it's a matter of whether that air is as potent as is being projected on the models. I don't know about the Euro but the GFS is showing a pretty good cold shot precluding the storm so we will have to see if that holds up, along with the track.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 The standard threading of the needle. Based on how this winter has gone I would prefer the northern vort to just disappear. It alone has messed up more storms than I care to count the problem with NINAs recall 07/08 & 08/09 had the identical problem; it wasn't until the 3/1/09 storm that it was no longer an issue, but only because the NINA was just about gone generally speaking, weak NINA s don't have that northern stream problem and is why its the only chance we have when it comes to NINAs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 The standard threading of the needle. Based on how this winter has gone I would prefer the northern vort to just disappear. It alone has messed up more storms than I care to count I really hadn't looked to hard at this storm until this morning. But as it shows on the 06Z GFS if we had some decent blocking and a 50/50 that northern energy gives us the potential for a blockbuster storm on the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Still a lot of spread on the 06Z GFS ensemble members. 7 do show a storm but as far as track and timing they give you multiple options for you to pick and choose the ones you want to hug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 At least we should have a fresh batch of cold air for the midweek period. Beyond that, it’s all about the stormtrack. Someone should make out really well from this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 sure feels like its gonna' snow out there this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 FWIW. The HP off the coast on the 6Z GFS is in a much better position. Off of New England instead of Delmarva. Still dont like the idea of a Coastal with a HP off the coast. But the further north it is the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 ACTIVE WX PATTERN CONTS NEXT WK. MCFARLAND SIGNATURE NOTED IN GFSAND ECMWF SUGGESTS REPEATED SURGES OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BE DISLODGED INTO CNTRL CONUS BGNG EARLY NEXT WK. What is a McFarland signature? I don't think I've ever heard that term before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 What is a McFarland signature? I don't think I've ever heard that term before. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ssd/techmemo/tm88.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 What is a McFarland signature? I don't think I've ever heard that term before. It relates, I think, to cross-polar flow and serves as a conveyor of arctic air to our side of the world...I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 What is a McFarland signature? I don't think I've ever heard that term before. From McFarland himself: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ssd/techmemo/tm88.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 From HPC: WE INCORPORATED NEW DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRENDS INTO THE FINALGRAPHICS. A MAJOR SYS IS MORE LIKELY NOW ALONG THE GULF/SERN COASTTHE MIDDLE/END OF NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THE DETAILS ARE STILL OBSCURE6 AND 7 DAYS OUT. THE NEW ECMWF HAS TRENDED STRONGLY NWWD WITH AMAJOR STORM MOVING ACROSS THE SERN STATES THU DAY 7. AMIDST HIGH UNCERTAINTY...I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SUBSEQUENT RUNS TREND EVEN FARTHER W WITH THIS STORM NEXT WEEK TOWARDS THE FAVORED LA NINA TRACK THRU THE OH VLY/WRN FOOTHILLS OFTHE APPALACHIANS. Not making any predictions on this storm, but with no block, PNA neutral going negative, odds favor a more typical La Nina storm track. The perfect timing/ thread the needle thing could bring the eye candy storm the GFS is advertising, but the odds, well. Still worth watching for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I hate to get into the middle, but this upcoming storm does not have a triple phase morphing in and won't be compared to March 1993. Let me be clear. This is not the 1993 storm, but it looks like it may have a similar track. Just demonstrating how things CAN work out if we thread the needle on a storm like this with arctic air moving in from the west as the storm develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 From HPC: WE INCORPORATED NEW DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRENDS INTO THE FINALGRAPHICS. A MAJOR SYS IS MORE LIKELY NOW ALONG THE GULF/SERN COASTTHE MIDDLE/END OF NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THE DETAILS ARE STILL OBSCURE6 AND 7 DAYS OUT. THE NEW ECMWF HAS TRENDED STRONGLY NWWD WITH AMAJOR STORM MOVING ACROSS THE SERN STATES THU DAY 7. AMIDST HIGH UNCERTAINTY...I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SUBSEQUENT RUNS TREND EVEN FARTHER W WITH THIS STORM NEXT WEEK TOWARDS THE FAVORED LA NINA TRACK THRU THE OH VLY/WRN FOOTHILLS OFTHE APPALACHIANS. Not making any predictions on this storm, but with no block, PNA neutral going negative, odds favor a more typical La Nina storm track. The perfect timing/ thread the needle thing could bring the eye candy storm the GFS is advertising, but the odds, well. Still worth watching for sure. I don't think anyone will disagree with you. It's like Charlie Brown felt... he KNEW that Lucy would pull the ball away and yet tried to kick it anyway. Most of us will hang on until the GFS craps the bed. But then again... what if it doesn't? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 From HPC: WE INCORPORATED NEW DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRENDS INTO THE FINALGRAPHICS. A MAJOR SYS IS MORE LIKELY NOW ALONG THE GULF/SERN COASTTHE MIDDLE/END OF NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THE DETAILS ARE STILL OBSCURE6 AND 7 DAYS OUT. THE NEW ECMWF HAS TRENDED STRONGLY NWWD WITH AMAJOR STORM MOVING ACROSS THE SERN STATES THU DAY 7. AMIDST HIGH UNCERTAINTY...I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SUBSEQUENT RUNS TREND EVEN FARTHER W WITH THIS STORM NEXT WEEK TOWARDS THE FAVORED LA NINA TRACK THRU THE OH VLY/WRN FOOTHILLS OFTHE APPALACHIANS. Not making any predictions on this storm, but with no block, PNA neutral going negative, odds favor a more typical La Nina storm track. The perfect timing/ thread the needle thing could bring the eye candy storm the GFS is advertising, but the odds, well. Still worth watching for sure. Looks like the pros are on my side. Hope we're wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 FWIW. The HP off the coast on the 6Z GFS is in a much better position. Off of New England instead of Delmarva. Still dont like the idea of a Coastal with a HP off the coast. But the further north it is the better. I wouldn't say MUCH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shane Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Thread the needle storms are the most fun to follow when they pan out. They're my favorites. I wonder how many psych majors are archiving these MA winter threads as case studies in cognitive dissonance. S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 were the euro ensembles west or east of op run. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I wouldn't say MUCH. Yes much better. With a HP off Delmarva we have no chance. Period. I dont like the coastal idea. If you check back through this thread I was one of the first to say it was going to track inland. But if we can get that HP further north it will help our odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 From HPC: WE INCORPORATED NEW DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRENDS INTO THE FINALGRAPHICS. A MAJOR SYS IS MORE LIKELY NOW ALONG THE GULF/SERN COASTTHE MIDDLE/END OF NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THE DETAILS ARE STILL OBSCURE6 AND 7 DAYS OUT. THE NEW ECMWF HAS TRENDED STRONGLY NWWD WITH AMAJOR STORM MOVING ACROSS THE SERN STATES THU DAY 7. AMIDST HIGH UNCERTAINTY...I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SUBSEQUENT RUNS TREND EVEN FARTHER W WITH THIS STORM NEXT WEEK TOWARDS THE FAVORED LA NINA TRACK THRU THE OH VLY/WRN FOOTHILLS OFTHE APPALACHIANS. Not making any predictions on this storm, but with no block, PNA neutral going negative, odds favor a more typical La Nina storm track. The perfect timing/ thread the needle thing could bring the eye candy storm the GFS is advertising, but the odds, well. Still worth watching for sure. yea that about sums it up, we just can't win were the euro ensembles west or east of op run. ? much colder 0c runs through ric bit we know it will head west over the next few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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