Iastfan112 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 WAA Snows- got screwed, these snows really underperformed here, was predicted to get a solid 4-6 only got 2 inches(might be a touch aggressive). Main storm- pretty much went down as expected, 2-4 was predicted(though they went down to just 2 inches for a little bit) ended up with 3 inches, roughly. Storm total: ~5 inches NWS beforehand: 7-9 for both Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sc2man13 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I heard buffalo was a disaster. How about Grand Rapids? GR did very well. Snow depth ranges from 2 to 3 feet outside (granted there was 8" on the ground before the storm) but we cashed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gil888 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 i like this thread-- the post-mortem. Good one to have for all the big storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I wish the midwest blizzard had been snow for everyone - and TWICE as much snow. Whoever got snow - I am right there with ya - CHEERING you all on!!! ENJOY!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Didn't get screwed, didn't overachieve here. First Part: 6 Inches (4-7 projected) 2nd Part: 6 Inches (5-9 projected) Parts of FDL did receive about 8 inches (SW corner) but that's fine. Storm total of 12 (projected: 9-16) Had 8 hours of 1/4 less vis, and had a wind gust of 50 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Haha...this is such a Ji-kind of thread. "Let's compare who got screwed and who we are going to be jealous of..." I got about 14 inches of snow here overnight (very hard to tell with so much drifting). The snow depth is about two and a half feet. (This fell on top of about a foot and a half that we already had on the ground). I think we'll have a good snowcover for quite a while... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 The sleet was pretty epic though, you got to admit that. Of course it would've been much better as all snow, regardless... In terms of getting screwed, 12/1/06 was much worse imo. That one trended from a big hit to a rainstorm. At least this one had epic sleet. But one major sleet storm is enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Snow was about as expected, the winds a bit greater than they even expected, so overall I give the event a B+ (compared to expectations which were high to begin with). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Somewhere between 15 and 18" here. No complaints. The drifting was unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Final Thoughts on SEMI Had great Blizzard conditions for 3 hours with 1+ rates an hour.. Kind of let down still..This will turn out to be a nightmare PR issue for local mets..Its not their faults though..Although jumping so quick with super high snow totals is what hurts..2 days before the storm 12-16 inches ,1 day before 10-15 ,the day of 7-10, the day after most locals ended up 5-8 inches (immediate metro Detroit area) ...The average people will remember this for a very long time. The models did a poor job with strength and showing the dry slot. It was a nowcaster event so the only model that showed an impressive dry slot was the HRRR. With regards to DTX..1 thing really went bad for them. In an AFD (monday morning ?) they threw in some unreasonable snow amounts..Something along lines of 18-24 inches. That only one model or piece of guidence showed. The context it was written in was poor and threw the local media into a frenzy. The Affects to the region (Commerce and closings) One word here " hype" . The cost to business and commerce due to lost productivity and low sales should measure to be very high. Even though roads were in poor shape..Ive never personally seen so many business's closed for a 5-8 inch snowstorm. This ought to be studied for a long time and local Mets take caution..People are *bleep*ed! This is the biggest problem i have with the event. Many around here are already lax when it comes to big storms/severe wx etc and well this has probably made that 100x worse. Why as said before i really do fear the day a real Jan 67/78 hits or Dec 74 out that way. I highly suspect it will be real ugly. Mainly because people wont believe the call for such amounts and will be thinking it is just the media hyping again. It will happen just a matter of when. Ofcourse amounts out this way ( W.MI ) verified alot better then the se part of the state. Personally i am ok with the results as i never really expected the record breaking stuff some of the models had showed for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 In terms of getting screwed, 12/1/06 was much worse imo. That one trended from a big hit to a rainstorm. At least this one had epic sleet. But one major sleet storm is enough. Agreed on both counts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 We probably consider ourselves fortunate here in southern Ohio. We had .75 ICE and we were quite scary that temps were not going to creep above 32 before the big winds came. Thankfully they did because if they didn't we would of had a disaster here in southern Ohio. The warm surge lasted just long enough to melt alot of ice off power lines and trees by the time the big wind came. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Once again, we get another 6"+ snowstorm (we are on a roll the last decade) but once again it falls short of epicness. Talk about the pros and the cons being consistent. But like it or not, while the dryslot and sleet was disappointing, IN THE END, total snowfall and qpf did not fall that short of expectations/forecasts for most in SE MI. Looking at pns statements and per my own witness, it does appear that MOST of southeast MI will fall in the 7-13" range as opposed to 10-15". The 36-hr total imby (thru 1pm) is precip 0.86", snow 9.8". Bust low? For some, yes. Epic bust? No. With all the blowing, drifting, and sleet compaction, no the snowdepth in ones yard is not going to be 7-12" in addition to whatever old snow was present (I started pre-storm with a 6" snow depth, I now have a 13" avg depth despite having 10" of snowfall in the 2 days, see below). 2-7am Feb 1st: 1.3" of powder, snow depth 7" 6pm-11:59pm Feb 1st: 5.2" of powder (, snow depth 11-12" (incl thundersnow, blizz conditions) 12am-7am Feb 2nd: 2.1" of sleety snow, very dense, depth still 12" from sleet compaction 7am-1pm: Feb 2nd: 1.2" of fluffy snow, depth 13" 1pm- had a heavy snow squall surely drop at least a quarter inch, maybe more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordoFabulous Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I'm not sure what to make of this storm in terms of over/under-performance. When the final forecast numbers were coming in, we were looking at a inch of ice with sleet and some backend snows. Instead, we got just a little bit of ice, probably an inch of snow, but an insane amount of sleet. The term "bucket list" has been raised a couple times to describe the kind of sleet seen in central Indiana, and that seems to be about all I can say about it as well. So, to the mets out there, what happened in terms of missing the forecast? Getting this much sleet instead of freezing rain seems to go against the trend of underdoing WAA in the models. Was it because the precip was so heavy for so long that dynamic cooling turned it into sleet? Very difficult forecast, and I think IND did a pretty good job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Once again, we get another 6"+ snowstorm (we are on a roll the last decade) but once again it falls short of epicness. Talk about the pros and the cons being consistent. But like it or not, while the dryslot and sleet was disappointing, IN THE END, total snowfall and qpf did not fall that short of expectations/forecasts for most in SE MI. Looking at pns statements and per my own witness, it does appear that MOST of southeast MI will fall in the 7-13" range as opposed to 10-15". The 36-hr total imby (thru 1pm) is precip 0.86", snow 9.8". Bust low? For some, yes. Epic bust? No. With all the blowing, drifting, and sleet compaction, no the snowdepth in ones yard is not going to be 7-12" in addition to whatever old snow was present (I started pre-storm with a 6" snow depth, I now have a 13" avg depth despite having 10" of snowfall in the 2 days, see below). 2-7am Feb 1st: 1.3" of powder, snow depth 7" 6pm-11:59pm Feb 1st: 5.2" of powder (, snow depth 11-12" (incl thundersnow, blizz conditions) 12am-7am Feb 2nd: 2.1" of sleety snow, very dense, depth still 12" from sleet compaction 7am-1pm: Feb 2nd: 1.2" of fluffy snow, depth 13" 1pm- had a heavy snow squall surely drop at least a quarter inch, maybe more. Agree with no bust. Being on the east side of the low I knew we werent going to hit the 10-15+ that most mets were saying. We had 7 inches last night here on the shelby/maconmb line and it has snowed steady all morning and I think we hit double digits. Sure it would have been nice to get 20 like locations to the west did but I am satisfied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Yeah, I thought LAF-Lima-Mansfield line was going to get a bad bad ice storm yesterday morning. It ended up a sleet storm instead. Silly me. Looked pretty sleety to me on that line, even going back to Sunday night. Cold layer from the surface to 900 was thick up here. Indy I was worried about, but thankfully the north side especially, got a lot of sleet yesterday instead of the dreaded ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gil888 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I'm not sure what to make of this storm in terms of over/under-performance. When the final forecast numbers were coming in, we were looking at a inch of ice with sleet and some backend snows. Instead, we got just a little bit of ice, probably an inch of snow, but an insane amount of sleet. The term "bucket list" has been raised a couple times to describe the kind of sleet seen in central Indiana, and that seems to be about all I can say about it as well. So, to the mets out there, what happened in terms of missing the forecast? Getting this much sleet instead of freezing rain seems to go against the trend of underdoing WAA in the models. Was it because the precip was so heavy for so long that dynamic cooling turned it into sleet? Very difficult forecast, and I think IND did a pretty good job. I'd be really happy it was sleet and not freezing rain. It could have be so much worse-- yes a bust, but at least a bust that left you with power Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordoFabulous Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I'd be really happy it was sleet and not freezing rain. It could have be so much worse-- yes a bust, but at least a bust that left you with power I'm not really calling it a bust exactly (and I am certainly not complaining about the sleet and the continual electrical power). I was just thinking about this as a study in how precip rates affect precip type in this kind of a situation. Believe me, I'll take three inches of sleet over 1.5" of fzrn at 19 degrees any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I'm not really calling it a bust exactly (and I am certainly not complaining about the sleet and the continual electrical power). I was just thinking about this as a study in how precip rates affect precip type in this kind of a situation. Believe me, I'll take three inches of sleet over 1.5" of fzrn at 19 degrees any day. In the areas that became marginal for sleet vs. zr, I can see how there would've been just enough cooling with heavier precip to keep it sleet. South of Indy, where the warm layer was thicker, I think the surface may have warmed up a tad quicker than progged. Combination of factors which turned a potentially catastrophic icing event into something less than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Agree with no bust. Being on the east side of the low I knew we werent going to hit the 10-15+ that most mets were saying. We had 7 inches last night here on the shelby/maconmb line and it has snowed steady all morning and I think we hit double digits. Sure it would have been nice to get 20 like locations to the west did but I am satisfied. Now Im not saying it wasnt a bust at all, but in general only a few inches below the forecast, and that was more a product or poor ratios at times with sleet. Looks like a widespread 2-day total from the Saginaw Valley down to the Ohio border of 7-14". Heres the snow/liquid post mortem here Here are mby totals 2-7am Feb 1st: P- 0.08", S- 1.3" 6p-12a Feb 1st: P- 0.43", S- 5.2" 12a-7a Feb 2nd: P- 0.29", S- 2.1" 7a-4p Feb 2nd: P- 0.07", S- 1.5 " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Definitely a bust here. Not an epic bust. There have been worse. But a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Snowfall forecasts for my city went as... Environment Canada: 8-12" The Weather Network: 10-14" Actual: 4.8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Depending where you were in Southeast Michigan It was not a bust. A lot places From Saginaw,Flint, Bay City, Bad Axe,Lapeer, Northern Oakland/Macomb did quite well with amounts 10"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Depending where you were in Southeast Michigan It was not a bust. A lot places From Saginaw,Flint, Bay City, Bad Axe,Lapeer, Northern Oakland/Macomb did quite well with amounts 10"+ A lot of the Saginaw Valley had 11-14". Hell, even Wayne county had 8-9" (NOT counting the waa snow), so it basically just was farther north track moreso than a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 A lot of the Saginaw Valley had 11-14". Hell, even Wayne county had 8-9" (NOT counting the waa snow), so it basically just was farther north track moreso than a bust. 7pm-12AM 3.0" 12AM-3AM 6.0" 3AM-8AM 8.0" 8AM-4PM 11.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Depending where you were in Southeast Michigan It was not a bust. A lot places From Saginaw,Flint, Bay City, Bad Axe,Lapeer, Northern Oakland/Macomb did quite well with amounts 10"+ Agree had about 7-8 this morning before the deformation band dropped 3-4. Not bad considering we were on the east side of the low for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Agree had about 7-8 this morning before the deformation band dropped 3-4. Not bad considering we were on the east side of the low for awhile. My Dad in Shelby says easy 10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Agree had about 7-8 this morning before the deformation band dropped 3-4. Not bad considering we were on the east side of the low for awhile. The more I look at area totals, the more I think it basically didnt really bust at all (earlier I was conceded a small bust), rather it just moved farther north. Even in the 2nd tier of counties we had 8-9" (which does NOT include the waa snow), while up in the Saginaw Valley they had 11-14". Also, while the OH border counties only had 5-7" with the main storm, they had 2-3" from the WAA. So once again, summing up, two-day total snowfall in ALL of SE MI basically ranges from 7 to 14". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 The more I look at area totals, the more I think it basically didnt really bust at all (earlier I was conceded a small bust), rather it just moved farther north. Even in the 2nd tier of counties we had 8-9" (which does NOT include the waa snow), while up in the Saginaw Valley they had 11-14". Also, while the OH border counties only had 5-7" with the main storm, they had 2-3" from the WAA. So once again, summing up, two-day total snowfall in ALL of SE MI basically ranges from 7 to 14". 7-14" is not really a bust. I think Isolated areas like around Ann Arbor or some areas around the city of Detroit maybe was a bust. Most locales did OK for a storm of this magnitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 7-14" is not really a bust. I think Isolated areas like around Ann Arbor or some areas around the city of Detroit maybe was a bust. Most locales did OK for a storm of this magnitude. If we can get more with a possible storm next week, think this would be the most snow I have seen on the ground in my short 24 year old life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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