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Epic winter signal continues to beam, part VII


ORH_wxman

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Even *less* QPF would have still delivered a good 8-14" event today I think. Ratios underperformed in a big way, and the duration was even more limited than anticipated.

I certainly hope snownh is okay. The only reason I'm on this forum is for his insight. I cherish every one of his daily 5 posts.

Dryslot raced ne, ratios were poor, and it's always tough to get heavy snow over 12-14" when the mid level lows are nw of you because it promotes all the factors we just listed.

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I just don't see this issue getting any better anytime soon, especially with the potential for two more storms within the next week...just a hit...doesn't matter what p-type is just going to cause more issues.

You guys need a total break from any storms right now to get places cleared off

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wow...euro bombs the low and smokes parts of E NE

edit: not a true "bomb" but drops it close to 12mb/12 hr

Looks like a near ACK track.

0.50" line runs from PSF-EEN-CON-SFM and everyone south of that is > 0.50".

0.25" RUT-HIE-IZG-BGR. Drops off to near nothing toward the Canadian border.

all of new england outside of far NW VT really is in measureable. it's got a funky set-up in that it actually trends colder over the life of the event. so looks like the best snows would be interior MA, maybe BOS then pts north and northeast.

Awesome another storm tracking over ACK is just what I wanted for Christmas.

--

Roads are a mess the exit to the Colony Place mall at exit 7 was almost flooded out at 11am, they had a huge front end loader trying to dig out the drains. Weird storm it never got warm or wet enough to melt the crap that fell overnight off the roads. It almost got it but there's probably about .2 to .3" of like negative 10 to 1 snow out there, it's like trying to shovel water!

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Interesting excerpt form NCEP:

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

805 AM EST WED FEB 02 2011

VALID 12Z SUN FEB 06 2011 - 12Z WED FEB 09 2011

AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE JUST OFFSHORE THE WEST COAST COMBINED WITH A

POLAR VORTEX POSITION IN NUNAVUT WILL ALLOW FOR A POSITIVELY

TILTED TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA INTO THE SOUTHERN

ROCKIES. THE GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON THIS IDEA...WHICH

CLOSELY MATCHES THE CURRENT PATTERN THE UNITED STATES HAS

TRANSITIONED INTO DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SHOULD

CONTINUE TO ALLOW SURFACE LOWS TO MOVE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO UP

INTO THE TENNESSEE/UPPER OHIO VALLEY BEFORE COASTAL REDEVELOPMENT

TAKES OVER EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN WEDGE. EARLY IN THE

PERIOD...THE MODELS WHICH MOST CLOSELY MATCH THIS IDEA ARE THE 06Z

GFS/00Z UKMET. LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE MODEL THAT MOST CLOSELY

MATCHES THIS IDEA IS THE 00Z CANADIAN...WITH THE 00Z GFS A CLOSE

SECOND.

FOR THE PRESSURES AND 500 HPA HEIGHTS...USED A COMPROMISE OF THE

06Z GFS/00Z UKMET/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN INTO MONDAY MORNING

BEFORE SWITCHING TO A 00Z CANADIAN/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN

COMPROMISE THEREAFTER...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO MOVE LOW

PRESSURE AREAS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES...EAST...AND NORTHERN ATLANTIC

INTO AREAS WITH THE BEST 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING. IT IS

QUITE POSSIBLE THE LOW PROGRESSION THROUGH THE EAST LATE IN THE

PERIOD IS DEPICTED TOO QUICK AS THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE MORE

THAN FIVE DAYS INTO THE FUTURE WAS 12-24 HOURS TOO QUICK WITH THE

DECEMBER 26 CYCLONE...JANUARY 26-27 CYCLONE...AND THE CURRENT

GROUNDHOG DAY CYCLONE MOVING THROUGH THE EAST...WHOSE VERIFIED

SOLUTIONS WERE EITHER ALONG OR OUTSIDE THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE

GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SPREAD SIX TO SEVEN DAYS INTO THE FUTURE. THE

LAST TWO CASES ARE EITHER DUE TO TOO MUCH PHASING BETWEEN THE

SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM SEEN IN THE GLOBAL MODELS AT THAT

TIME RANGE...OR AMPLIFICATION OF THE WRONG /PRECEDING/ SOUTHERN

STREAM SHORTWAVE.

ROTH

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i don't know why anyone thought amounts much over a foot had a chance

the nam way overdid qpf, as usual

To be fair, it had support from the GFS, but yea, lots of fails.. but fails that were well disucssed beforehand by ryan, scott, will and hence reflected their more reasonable forecasts for the area.

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