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Epic winter signal continues to beam, part VII


ORH_wxman

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We have heavy pellets mixed with ZR down here in Westborough – just ripping out there! Currently about 75% IP (clear pellets) and 25% ZR here, falling together at a mod-heavy pace. Rad says you are getting some awesome snow fall rates if you have not gone to IP along and N of Rt 2, and W of 495 (Essex Co is doing well). Intellicasts p-type algorithm has stalled the northward migration of the transition zone – right along Rt 2 or just S of there. Maybe some pellets mixing in, but that means > 50% of your action is probably snow.

Looked over the guidance: looks like a 6-8 hour QPF bomb on the weekend with p-type headaches. Then there is a chance of a massive event a week from today. We seem to be on this cycle over the past month of a big storm in midweek, then a smaller size or nuance systems on the weekends, then another bigger mid week deal.

Meanwhile, the CPC and CDC nightly teleconnectors are screaming for a pattern change that the deterministic runs are hesitent to bring in. One thing that will throw an additional pretty big monkey wrench ....probably more like an all out crow-bar, is the emergent SSWE taking place. Too early to tell if this is a propagator or not; if so, the AO tanks in 20 days, so whatever pattern change toward warmer times is going to happen, it's getting temporally squeezed and runs out of room by day. If we manage a wet snow interior job on the weekend, and then the 00z Euro is right about the coastal mid-week (and it even narely misses us with an all out blizzard on D10), it becomes questionable whether or not these teleconnectors (derived off the 21 member GFS suite) are pulling a red herring.

I suppose also, in all fairness, these signals are not exactly strong signals. The PNA is moderately negative at CPC, to about -1 at most, and the NAO at the same agency actually collapses (new signal) toward neutral in a week, before mop-ending whether it will rise again; the CDC has the NAO actually slipping negative again in 10 days (also a new signal) after a mighty 7 day hike - which is probably interim overblown.

So yeah ...there is some wiggle-room in there for interpretation. We probably should try and be objective about what those curves really mean. And it is going to be interesting to see how the AO is handled over the coming weeks.

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Yeah, this time instead of the big dendrites it's needle like crystals.

Sometimes in these sleet situations with very cold low level temps it can be cold enough for nucleation to produce tiny snow crystals (snow grains) in the cold layer. So you get a PLSG mix. Then when you get a little burst of stronger uvv's you can flip the PL over to some larger SN aggregates.
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We have heavy pellets mixed with ZR down here in Westborough – just ripping out there! Currently about 75% IP (clear pellets) and 25% ZR here, falling together at a mod-heavy pace. Rad says you are getting some awesome snow fall rates if you have not gone to IP along and N of Rt 2, and W of 495 (Essex Co is doing well). Intellicasts p-type algorithm has stalled the northward migration of the transition zone – right along Rt 2 or just S of there. Maybe some pellets mixing in, but that means > 50% of your action is probably snow.

Looked over the guidance: looks like a 6-8 hour QPF bomb on the weekend with p-type headaches. Then there is a chance of a massive event a week from today. We seem to be on this cycle over the past month of a big storm in midweek, then a smaller size or nuance systems on the weekends, then another bigger mid week deal.

Meanwhile, the CPC and CDC nightly teleconnectors are screaming for a pattern change that the deterministic runs are hesitent to bring in. One thing that will throw an additional pretty big monkey wrench ....probably more like an all out crow-bar, is the emergent SSWE taking place. Too early to tell if this is a propagator or not; if so, the AO tanks in 20 days, so whatever pattern change toward warmer times is going to happen, it's getting temporally squeezed and runs out of room by day. If we manage a wet snow interior job on the weekend, and then the 00z Euro is right about the coastal mid-week (and it even narely misses us with an all out blizzard on D10), it becomes questionable whether or not these teleconnectors (derived off the 21 member GFS suite) are pulling a red herring.

I suppose also, in all fairness, these signals are not exactly strong signals. The PNA is moderately negative at CPC, to about -1 at most, and the NAO at the same agency actually collapses (new signal) toward neutral in a week, before mop-ending whether it will rise again; the CDC has the NAO actually slipping negative again in 10 days (also a new signal) after a mighty 7 day hike - which is probably interim overblown.

So yeah ...there is some wiggle-room in there for interpretation. We probably should try and be objective about what those curves really mean. And it is going to be interesting to see how the AO is handled over the coming weeks.

Whiteout conditions like you wouldn't believe right now!!! This is insane. Thanks for the insight Tip. I only have access to the free Euro and what I got out of it from ewall is that there is no end in sight to the parade of storms. Thanks for going into more depth than that. Was wondering what that parade might hold.

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...the mountain is closing at 4:30 today... :arrowhead:

zero zr, steady mix between pl and sn+

It's like we're in the middle of the war zone, and the temps aloft are battling. I guess it all depends on the intensity of the precip. Heavier dbz seem to be more sleet-tainted, but it's all very good.

The woods are unbelievable, head on up!

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We have heavy pellets mixed with ZR down here in Westborough – just ripping out there! Currently about 75% IP (clear pellets) and 25% ZR here, falling together at a mod-heavy pace. Rad says you are getting some awesome snow fall rates if you have not gone to IP along and N of Rt 2, and W of 495 (Essex Co is doing well). Intellicasts p-type algorithm has stalled the northward migration of the transition zone – right along Rt 2 or just S of there. Maybe some pellets mixing in, but that means > 50% of your action is probably snow.

Looked over the guidance: looks like a 6-8 hour QPF bomb on the weekend with p-type headaches. Then there is a chance of a massive event a week from today. We seem to be on this cycle over the past month of a big storm in midweek, then a smaller size or nuance systems on the weekends, then another bigger mid week deal.

Meanwhile, the CPC and CDC nightly teleconnectors are screaming for a pattern change that the deterministic runs are hesitent to bring in. One thing that will throw an additional pretty big monkey wrench ....probably more like an all out crow-bar, is the emergent SSWE taking place. Too early to tell if this is a propagator or not; if so, the AO tanks in 20 days, so whatever pattern change toward warmer times is going to happen, it's getting temporally squeezed and runs out of room by day. If we manage a wet snow interior job on the weekend, and then the 00z Euro is right about the coastal mid-week (and it even narely misses us with an all out blizzard on D10), it becomes questionable whether or not these teleconnectors (derived off the 21 member GFS suite) are pulling a red herring.

I suppose also, in all fairness, these signals are not exactly strong signals. The PNA is moderately negative at CPC, to about -1 at most, and the NAO at the same agency actually collapses (new signal) toward neutral in a week, before mop-ending whether it will rise again; the CDC has the NAO actually slipping negative again in 10 days (also a new signal) after a mighty 7 day hike - which is probably interim overblown.

So yeah ...there is some wiggle-room in there for interpretation. We probably should try and be objective about what those curves really mean. And it is going to be interesting to see how the AO is handled over the coming weeks.

Temp drop and RIPPING! in Methuen.

Def. 1/4sm S+ now.

Whiteout conditions like you wouldn't believe right now!!! This is insane. Thanks for the insight Tip. I only have access to the free Euro and what I got out of it from ewall is that there is no end in sight to the parade of storms. Thanks for going into more depth than that. Was wondering what that parade might hold.

:arrowhead: :arrowhead: :arrowhead: :arrowhead:

:noose:

Sleet+

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