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NYC Area February 1st-2nd OBS and Discussion Continued...


Rib

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I have to give props to tmagan...I wanted to jump all over him yesterday (and some people did) when he said "I can see southern Jersey making a run for the upper 50's during the day Wednesday" and that Easten Long Island could hit 50. Well, Cape May hit 57 last hour, and MTP sits at 47.

Into the 60s along the VA coast

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I have to give props to tmagan...I wanted to jump all over him yesterday (and some people did) when he said "I can see southern Jersey making a run for the upper 50's during the day Wednesday" and that Easten Long Island could hit 50. Well, Cape May hit 57 last hour, and MTP sits at 47.

Now, don't take this the wrong way....but I just want to point out that while the end result in regards to temps was really close, I think it was for the wrong reason. That prediction was based off of the GEM's exact solution, which had no coastal transfer of energy ever occuring. When in fact its in the process of doing that now. Had that have happened just a liitle sooner than it did, these same areas would have been much colder. Nothing against tmagan, just something I noticed ;)

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Now, don't take this the wrong way....but I just want to point out that while the end result in regards to temps was really close, I think it was for the wrong reason. That prediction was based off of the GEM's exact solution, which had no coastal transfer of energy ever occuring. When in fact its in the process of doing that now. Had that have happened just a liitle sooner than it did, these same areas would have been much colder. Nothing against tmagan, just something I noticed ;)

Its a razor's edge. We have not climbed above 34 yet here.

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Its a razor's edge. We have not climbed above 34 yet here.

Not going to happen either, I got up to lower 40's earlier, but still dropping now.....back down to 35.8.....also, the fog I had earlier has turned into more of a mist/drizzle. I'm wondering, if temps keep falling are we going to see more problems later.

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<br />agreed,,,this event actually added to my snowpack<br />
<br /><br /><br />

The layer of ice on top of the snow has prevented the pack from shrinking like it could have.It will be like concrete by tomorrow night.

There is still the icepack from the past storms,there are actually several layers of snow and ice which is not going to mkelt as easily as it would normally.

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<br /><br /><br />

The layer of ice on top of the snow has prevented the pack from shrinking like it could have.It will be like concrete by tomorrow night.

There is still the icepack from the past storms,there are actually several layers of snow and ice which is not going to mkelt as easily as it would normally.

assuming no thaw, which doesn't look likely at least in the near future, we should be able to hold on to this snowpack for at least 10-14 days maybe more.

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It looks the snowpack melts slowly over the next week before the next shot of arctic air and snow chances.

Well that was basically the temperature profile we and the snowpack were dealing with the week or two leading up to the arctic outbreak before the 1/26 storm. Mid-upper 30's during the day 20's at night. If we can squeeze some snow out of Saturday's event somehow the sensible weather will be pretty much the same as just before 1/26 and the arctic outbreak that occurred the days leading up to that storm.

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<br />assuming no thaw, which doesn't look likely at least in the near future, we should be able to hold on to this snowpack for at least 10-14 days maybe more.<br />
<br /><br /><br />

Its going to thaw somewhat,but minimally.A big torch type warmup would bring serious flooding with this 5-6 inch liquid pack.

This is already the greatest snowpack I have ever seen in my 44 years.If we did not get another flake this winter,I would still be happy.We had a fantastic 2 month run of cold and 1 month run of snow and cold.

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These 33-34F readings around most of the area and north winds are definitely encouraging in that snowmelt will be very limited today. Tonight, expect it to refreeze solid as temps go back into the lower 20s and whatever ZR/rain soaks in and freezes up. Roads will likely be just as treacherous tonight as they were this morning, since everything is still wet.

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<br /><br /><br />

Its going to thaw somewhat,but minimally.A big torch type warmup would bring serious flooding with this 5-6 inch liquid pack.

This is already the greatest snowpack I have ever seen in my 44 years.If we did not get another flake this winter,I would still be happy.We had a fantastic 2 month run of cold and 1 month run of snow and cold.

Same here, almost... Last years Feb, th5-6th, 16" followed by Feb 10th's 18" leaving 30"+ snow pack was it for my area.

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Ed, looks like some of the north shore stations on wunderground have dropped below freezing now. And quite a few are right at 32.

I distrust any of the stations that are showing below freezing right now. I think thats a good marker for stations that are too low and need to be calibrated.

Even if it was actually freezing at some locations, which it certainly wasn't earlier, it is unlikely that it would drop below freezing in the middle of the day with a saturated boundary, not much wind, no CAA yet and everything dripping wet. To our north is all above freezing as well.

EDIT: This is for Suffolk County.

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Good afternoon ladies and gents. Turned out to be a significant ice storm here. We lost power from about 5 through 9am. A few major tree branches are down, one fell on and damaged a car. Trees are still thickly coated, main hazard at the moment is falling ice. It's almost constant noise out there with the ice falling everywhere.

A real mess.

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Colder air is moving south behind the secondary low. The push of cold air is mainly being felt over the eastern 2/3 of New England and down into Suffolk County LI, and not further west. Islip, Bridgeport and New Haven, CT all dropped 2 degrees in the last 2 hours. (New Haven is down to 30F as of 3PM). Upton is down to 32.5F now.

You mention "not much wind", but New Haven has a north wind at 12 kt. Also, a buoy in eastern LI Sound has a NNE wind at 12 kt gusting to 16 kt. That buoy also has seen temps drop 4 degrees in the past 4 hours, and 1 degree in the past 15 minutes, and is now at 30.9F. Those winds are clearly advecting colder air southward, even if the winds over LI are weaker.

http://www.ndbc.noaa...p?station=44039

I agree that the stations showing a temp. below 32F probably have a cold bias, but most stations in Suffolk County and coastal southern CT have seen temps drop steadily over the past few hours.

I distrust any of the stations that are showing below freezing right now. I think thats a good marker for stations that are too low and need to be calibrated.

Even if it was actually freezing at some locations, which it certainly wasn't earlier, it is unlikely that it would drop below freezing in the middle of the day with a saturated boundary, not much wind, no CAA yet and everything dripping wet. To our north is all above freezing as well.

EDIT: This is for Suffolk County.

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