A-L-E-K Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 impressive lake enhanced band near chistorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 seems we can add underdone dryslots to the big storm facts of life along with underdone WAA and WAA precip arriving ahead of schedule. Typically intense storms are underdone everywhere. Winds, dryslot, WAA, frontal strength, heaviest precip areas, NW curving track, etc. A classic example of the feedback process resulting in bigger errors with time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Very good point. To be honest, I knew about models' tendency to under forecast the size and speed of a storm's dryslot, but the weenie in me tried hard to sweep that knowledge under the carpet. I lowered my amounts to account for it, but considering how rapidly the low was intensifying, I should have lowered them further. Don't understand why the gov't mets/media mets/certain mets on this board didn't pick up on the trends. I guess there's a little weenie in us all. ENVCA not do too well? What were they predicting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 ORD 7 AM (12) Feb 0221 (-6)19 (-7)29.86 (1011)NNE 20heavy snow; blowing snow6 AM (11) Feb 0221 (-6)17 (-8)29.82 (1009)NNE 23snow; blowing snow5 AM (10) Feb 0221 (-6)19 (-7)29.76 (1007)NNE 22heavy snow; blowing snow4 AM (9) Feb 0221 (-6)19 (-7)29.72 (1006)NNE 29heavy snow; blowing snow3 AM (8) Feb 0219 (-7)19 (-7)29.69 (1005)NE 24heavy snow; blowing snow2 AM (7) Feb 0219 (-7)19 (-7)29.67 (1004)NNE 26heavy snow; blowing snow1 AM (6) Feb 0219 (-7)19 (-7)29.69 (1005)NNE 29heavy snow; blowing snowMidnight (5) Feb 0219 (-7)19 (-7)29.71 (1006)NE 36heavy snow; blowing snow11 PM (4) Feb 0119 (-7)19 (-7)29.76 (1007)NE 29heavy snow; blowing snow10 PM (3) Feb 0119.9 (-6.7)19.0 (-7.2)29.72 (1006)NE 28heavy snow; blowing snow9 PM (2) Feb 0121 (-6)19 (-7)29.8 (1009)ENE 31heavy snow; blowing snow8 PM (1) Feb 0121.9 (-5.6)19.9 (-6.7)29.85 (1010)ENE 36heavy snow; blowing snow7 PM (0) Feb 0121 (-6)19 (-7)29.87 (1011)ENE 28heavy snow; blowing snow6 PM (23) Feb 0121 (-6)19 (-7)29.94 (1013)ENE 25snow; blowing snow5 PM (22) Feb 0121.9 (-5.6)19.9 (-6.7)30.01 (1016)NE 30heavy snow; blowing snow4 PM (21) Feb 0121.9 (-5.6)19.9 (-6.7)30.05 (1017)NE 29heavy snow; blowing snow3 PM (20) Feb 0121 (-6)19 (-7)30.05 (1017)NE 28heavy snow; blowing snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 ENVCA not do too well? What were they predicting? 10-12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 10-12". It is still a learning process for me--for any forecaster. One thing to mention is no model is tuned to very accurately simulate extreme non-linear positive feedback cyclogenesis. Think the SNE Nor'easter a few weeks ago, this storm, or even the Northern Plains blizzards. They are freak events--and models, would they accurately predict such systems--would be "over-amped" most of the other times. Best thing a forecaster can do is note the potential for extreme and rapid cyclogenesis and then apply the biases typical with models under such scenarios. The problem arises when the guidance are having issues modeling more than one aspect. In terms of ENVCA--they were kinda tied down since all guidance blasted your area. Some times it is hard to go against that guidance when it is so overwhelming. Thus all meteorologists learn from these events--it is every mets job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 this LE/lake enhanced band is going nuts here, easiily 2"/hr...should move east pretty soon. this will help ORD make a run at 20" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torontonian Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I am old enough to remember the storm of January 26th, 1978. The only day i had off grade school for snow, but nothing happened here. Biggest bust ever for Toronto. We got super dryslotted here today. Only day school closed for my kids. Till next time.... Congrats to Chicagoland and other midwest places that got socked. Did any models show this bust here? Looks like storm went 75 miles north of were thought. Central Ontario is getting thundersnow etc... Anything after dryslot for us? Eh SSC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 this LE/lake enhanced band is going nuts here, easiily 2"/hr...should move east pretty soon. this will help ORD make a run at 20" The band is still ripping here.. This is unbelievable right outside my window there are 5+ foot drifts.. I think this stuff is gonna be around for a while.. That 17.1" was taken at 455Am as well so 20 should be a good bet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Looks like storm went 75 miles north of were thought. Central Ontario is getting thundersnow etc... Anything after dryslot for us? Eh SSC? We'll get some wrap around, but it won't amount to anything siggy. 2-3" maybe. Looks like radar's trying to fill in some now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 dont think I will ever see all the roads in kane county closed ever again. this is epic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 single band becoming dominant as it prepares to swing east into ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Never thought I would say 8 inches is a let down...That Dry Slot was a beast..Ill add it to the list as not one of the worst dry slotting events but def top 5 for me. Had real Blizzard conditions from about 930pm -1230am.. Heard thunder at one point around 300am.. All in all it was a good storm. Learned an incredible amount of info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 still can't believe we were gusting to 70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 single band becoming dominant as it prepares to swing east into ORD. Wheaton area taking a beating from it right now. just guessing here but I'd say maybe near 15"-18", will attempting to get a good measurement in awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Back to snowing pretty good here. Light but moderate sized flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Ended up with approximately 7" at my place. Was calling for 8-10" so was a little disappointed. The 2 hours of heavy sleet was pretty cool last night. And had about 3-4 hours of blizzard conditions before the sleet. These neg tilt systems normally end up farther northwest than modeled, and this event was no different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 waiting for lake effect band of death to pull through (hope it will), then i'll snap some pics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Looks like storm went 75 miles north of were thought. Central Ontario is getting thundersnow etc... Anything after dryslot for us? Eh SSC? Heavy snow, big flakes being blown about by the wind here in Ottawa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I really feel bad for those in eastern Michigan. What an unbelievable let down. Pretty much another cry wolf storm here for the south and eastern lakes. It's 42 degrees in Cleveland right now and not a sign of crippling ice. What little freezing rain that did fall in the 10pm-12am time slot last night is now a distant memory. As dmc pointed out, for most of SE MI in the end the storm is basically going to end up on the low end of the forecast range. The low spots will be 6" and the high spots 12" or so. Cant speak for those north of town but I can speak for here. We lost on our expected total snowfall accumulations because the storm at its peak was actually more fierce but shorter duration. Several days ago, I was envisioning a 24-hour snowstorm with 15-1 powder that would probably total in the 12-16" range (had that verified Im positive wed hear complaints about a long duration event). What we got was a more fierce storm with blizzard conditions but one of much lower ratios and shorter duration. The snow started as 12-1 in the blizzard, then turned to the sleet/snow mix overnight which added to the danger of the storm but cut into the accums some more. Some roads this morning are gridlocked because of the deep, DENSE snow. I was out, saw cars get stuck, cars that couldnt stop, etc. The storm total liquid was 0.80", so qpf yesterday verified just fine (the days prior did have us in the 1.25" range). Storm totals thru 8am today Round 1- P: 0.08", S- 1.3" Round 2- P: 0.72", S- 7.4" Current snow depth is a very dense 12" (reminds me of the packed powder at ski resorts) with some nice drifts. Shoveling this stuff is going to be a trip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Moline gets exactly 1.9" in the last 6 hours, tying January 1979 for the highest single storm snowfall total with 18.4". Shouldn't be too hard to get another 0.1" to set the new mark today. So awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 We picked up 3.5 inches of sleet and 1/2 inch ice accretion. Road conditions are about the worst I have seen them in some time, especially for sleet, as the freezing rain on top of the sleet has created concrete ice on all secondary roadways. Road crews have been working for hours and can't even begin to get the ice/sleet compact removed. Power outages reported across the area with numerous trees/powerlines/power poles down. I still have power fortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cubfan61201 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Moline gets exactly 1.9" in the last 6 hours, tying January 1979 for the highest single storm snowfall total with 18.4". Shouldn't be too hard to get another 0.1" to set the new mark today. Climate Summary for Moline, IL for February 1 gives snowfall total of 14.8 " Another 1.9" would equal 16.7" was there more snow since midnight that isn't in this equation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 KORD 021346Z 34019G25KT 1/8SM R14R/1400V2400FT +SN BLSN VV002 M08/M09 A2995 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Did something pretty dumb last night. I decided to take a short drive to take in the blizzard and was trying to get back home as the winds hit but came to a road drifted shut. I went to go into reverse but couldn't see the road good and backed right into a 2 ft ditch. Tried in vain to dig out with a box I had in the truck but it was getting buried faster than I could dig. Eventually i had to decide to start walking. I walked 4 miles in 45-50 mph winds and hvy snow/sleet. It was surreal, frightening, and beautiful all in one. Took me from 9:00 to 11:30 to hoof it home. Never once saw another person or vehicle. Have to admit, I can see how the elements could get the best of someone. Like always, though, most lessons that stick with me are learned the hard way, and this was no exception. Now I gotta figure out how to getmy truck out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 KORD 021346Z 34019G25KT 1/8SM R14R/1400V2400FT +SN BLSN VV002 M08/M09 A2995 can't wait till it gets here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nevermind Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I can't get enough of people who were stranded on Lake Shore Drive blaming the city for it. They should have been removed from their cars and tossed into the lake. You ignored all the warnings and took a road with limited exits. You took the chance, it didn't work out. That wasn't the city's fault. Hell, many of you ran out of gas. Exactly how does that happen if you pay attention to the "run the car 10 minutes every hour" rule? Oh that's right, you went to work with a 1/8 tank Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Pics here last night and this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 hmm...now the wraparound snow is starting. When all is said and done total snowfall on Feb 1/2 here may still hit double digits! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Just got my cable/internet back on here. Alas, after 8 times of power going off and on at my place last night, it stayed on through the overnight. I went out and ventured about on foot and the sleet/snow pack is a freaking glacier. Literally. Pretty impressive really. Looks like we flipped to snow sometime overnight and it was coming down pretty well when I got up at 7AM. Purdue has cancelled classes today, not doubt that cancellations are more common these days it seems, but a testament to the glacier that resides in the LAF/WL area. My boss has given me a 2 hour delay of getting into work, but cars in my neighborhood can't navigate the glacier. Many have tried this morning, and all have failed. Of course he is not attempting to come into work, and I will be the only one expected to arrive. Wish me luck if he doesn't relent. Time to catch up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.