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January 31-February 2 Historic Winter Storm part 10


Hoosier

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Looks like you were right. Feb 2000/Jan 2004 were bigger busts but this will probably rank as #3, with Dec 2005 falling into 4th place.

Another in a long list of synoptic snow letdowns...................impossible to tell what has fallen because of the drifting from the existing snow. The drifts are certainly impressive but I doubt this storm contributed much in the way of snow. The plow has already been down our street so it couldn't have been too bad.:arrowhead:

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Didn't hear anything.

According to the latest RUC, it looks like Toronto will barely miss the dry slot this morning, but the rate of snowfall will be much less compared to 30 minutes ago. I haven't been outside yet, but it looks like at least 4 inches has fallen in the downtown core so far.

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Another in a long list of synoptic snow letdowns...................impossible to tell what has fallen because of the drifting from the existing snow. The drifts are certainly impressive but I doubt this storm contributed much in the way of snow. The plow has already been down our street so it couldn't have been too bad.:arrowhead:

Not sure how this could have been avoided? Models all consistently put a swath of 0.75-1.00" right across the region. Now it was becoming evident yesterday that the dryslot was going to be more of a factor, but even the RUC/HRRR, which were all over the dryslot, spit out up to 0.75" with the WCB driven precip.

We'll see how it goes but I might not even end up with 0.25" worth of liquid equivalent. That means the driest models were to wet x3. :lol:

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According to the latest RUC, it looks like Toronto will barely miss the dry slot this morning, but the rate of snowfall will be much less compared to 30 minutes ago. I haven't been outside yet, but it looks like at least 4 inches has fallen in the downtown core so far.

Measured 2.2" around 5 and I'll assume an inch fell when it was blasting for an hour between 5-6.30 so I'll say a bit over 3" here. Radar not looking to friendly although returns are trying to build SW of Hamilton. If we get to 6" with this one we should consider ourselves lucky.

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lol, thanks for pointing that out. Don't know what they're thinking.

Maybe they have their own in-house model. LOL.

But on a serious note, both Toronto school boards (Toronto District/TDSB and Toronto Catholic/TCDSB) have closed all schools today. This is the first snow day for schools in Toronto since January 15th, 1999. I'm very surprised.

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Final Total around 8-9"

correction: 8.0" Still snowing. Expect another 2-3" in the northern Detroit Suburbs. 10-11 inches total. Yes the Storm was was on the "low" end in many ways kind a "busted" but still the Detroit area will end up with 6-11 inches.

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LOL!!!

I'm actually glad I fell asleep on this storm, not that it was my intention, but maybe god already knew I would be tiffed off at what was coming and insisted that I rest my weary eyes. You know I expected actual snowfall accumulations to be pretty awful, but I did NOT expect to only receive 3-6" when it was all said & done. And while everyone's now on the badwagon with additional accumulations with the wrap around, I'm not hold my breath for that one, I've been disappointed too many times by that lie. Not to mention per the observations we had a pretty notable period of sleet on this side of town which added insult to injury.

Yeah, it was a nice storm, but certinaly not anything I would consider memorable. In fact, Iwould describe it perfectly as a powdery version of the December 12th, 2010 storm. At least in the Blizzard of '99 we did actually get a foot of snow before getting dry slotted. So please get this crap out of here ASAP.

All of the above said, the expression of my experience with this storm is in no way meant to downplay the fiery of this storm, especially for those who really cashed in on the really heavy snows/nlizzard-like conditions and while I congratulate them for doing so well, I also encourage them along with those who experienced significant icing and/or are experiencing power outages in this bitterly cold weather to just stay safe and I wish you all have the best outcome at the end of this magnificent storm. I will admit the wind when it reached its full potential was no joke. You could hear it howling through the walls on the inside. Although we only had so much time of true blizzard conditons here (based on criteria), the visiblities would quickly drop from an average 3/4 mile and turn into a whiteout.

I really feel bad for those in eastern Michigan. What an unbelievable let down. Pretty much another cry wolf storm here for the south and eastern lakes. It's 42 degrees in Cleveland right now and not a sign of crippling ice. What little freezing rain that did fall in the 10pm-12am time slot last night is now a distant memory.

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Maybe they have their own in-house model. LOL.

But on a serious note, both Toronto school boards (Toronto District/TDSB and Toronto Catholic/TCDSB) have closed all schools today. This is the first snow day for schools in Toronto since January 15th, 1999. I'm very surprised.

I had heard about the buses, but not the schools entirely. Wow. They didn't close for Feb 6, 2008 or any of the other bigger snowstorms we've had since Jan 1999. EC/on air mets are going to take a beating from these type of public sector institutions (and frankly the public in general) that depend on them for reliable forecasting. And I sympathize with those mets, because there's not much else they could do.

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Just ventured outside. There are some impressive drifts out there! I live in the city and there are drifts that are higher than I am tall, so I'm interested in hearing how it is out in the countryside. If I were a kid, it would be time for those most excellent snow tunnels and forts! And all the Labs, oh my the dogs will have fun today!

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I had heard about the buses, but not the schools entirely. Wow. They didn't close for Feb 6, 2008 or any of the other bigger snowstorms we've had since Jan 1999. EC/on air mets are going to take a beating from these type of public sector institutions (and frankly the public in general) that depend on them for reliable forecasting. And I sympathize with those mets, because there's not much else they could do.

Good points. Maybe EC/on-air mets should try explaining the concept of the dry slot and the 850/700 mb lows to the public. Good luck! LOL. The public doesn't have a clue what those two concepts mean. They only care about the actual forecast, not the gritty details behind it.

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Not sure how this could have been avoided? Models all consistently put a swath of 0.75-1.00" right across the region. Now it was becoming evident yesterday that the dryslot was going to be more of a factor, but even the RUC/HRRR, which were all over the dryslot, spit out up to 0.75" with the WCB driven precip.

We'll see how it goes but I might not even end up with 0.25" worth of liquid equivalent. That means the driest models were to wet x3. :lol:

Massive dryslots are typical in these intense storms. Models almost always underestimate that. One area the models really failed here (especially NCEP guidance) was the overall strength. They were way too weak--and as a result--had a much less impressive dryslot and a deformation band much farther S. Moreover--due to the overall weakness of those models--they didn't precipitate out enough precip like this intense beast eventually did. One thing I have learned through the years though is models will ALWAYS underestimate the dryslot typically both in speed of development/propagation but overall extent. Throw in the model issues I just mentioned and it was a double whammy on snow totals for your area.

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Looks like you were right. Feb 2000/Jan 2004 were bigger busts but this will probably rank as #3, with Dec 2005 falling into 4th place.

I am old enough to remember the storm of January 26th, 1978. The only day i had off grade school for snow, but nothing happened here. Biggest bust ever for Toronto.

We got super dryslotted here today. Only day school closed for my kids.

Till next time....

Congrats to Chicagoland and other midwest places that got socked.

Did any models show this bust here?

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I am old enough to remember the storm of January 26th, 1978. The only day i had off grade school for snow, but nothing happened here. Biggest bust ever for Toronto.

We got super dryslotted here today. Only day school closed for my kids.

Till next time....

Congrats to Chicagoland and other midwest places that got socked.

Did any models show this bust here?

A terrific example of why models are never to be taken verbatim. There certainly was the potential for a big bust since I had a feeling the models were grossly underestimating the strength except the high res guidance--but even that guidance underestimated the prolific dry slot. See post to snowstormcanuck.

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Massive dryslots are typical in these intense storms. Models almost always underestimate that. One area the models really failed here (especially NCEP guidance) was the overall strength. They were way too weak--and as a result--had a much less impressive dryslot and a deformation band much farther S. Moreover--due to the overall weakness of those models--they didn't precipitate out enough precip like this intense beast eventually did. One thing I have learned through the years though is models will ALWAYS underestimate the dryslot typically both in speed of development/propagation but overall extent. Through in the model issues I just mentioned and it was a double whammy on snow totals for your area.

Very good point. To be honest, I knew about models' tendency to under forecast the size and speed of a storm's dryslot, but the weenie in me tried hard to sweep that knowledge under the carpet. I lowered my amounts to account for it, but considering how rapidly the low was intensifying, I should have lowered them further. Don't understand why the gov't mets/media mets/certain mets on this board didn't pick up on the trends. I guess there's a little weenie in us all.

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