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Pittsburgh/Western PA Weather


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18z NAM continues to look good. I'm skeptical though on the high qpf given that its the 18z and the NAMs tendency to over do qpf at times.

post-328-0-31755500-1298233457.gif

Its not a bad thing though considering the event is only 36 hours away. Wouldn't it be amazing if we actually get our largest snowfall this season with a storm that not many people are following?

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Its not a bad thing though considering the event is only 36 hours away. Wouldn't it be amazing if we actually get our largest snowfall this season with a storm that not many people are following?

Seems like the NWS is trying to keep up with the changes. I think we're gonna have to wait right up until tommorow evening before a solid concenses is made.

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In Beaver county, I'm experiencing the same. A dusting on everything except the roads. Pretty big snow flakes coming down!

Am 30 miles south of Pittsburgh in Washington County. Has been snowing heavily here, ground is covered already.

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Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA

545 PM EST SUN FEB 20 2011

MDZ001-OHZ039>041-049-050-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-

073>076-WVZ001>003-023-041-210045-

GARRETT-TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-HARRISON-JEFFERSON OH-

MERCER-VENANGO-FOREST-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-BEAVER-

ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WASHINGTON-GREENE-WESTMORELAND-

WESTMORELAND RIDGES-FAYETTE-FAYETTE RIDGES-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-

PRESTON-TUCKER-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OAKLAND MD...GRANTSVILLE...

NEW PHILADELPHIA...DOVER...UHRICHSVILLE...CARROLLTON...

EAST LIVERPOOL...SALEM...COLUMBIANA...EAST PALESTINE...

WELLSVILLE...CALCUTTA...CADIZ...HOPEDALE...STEUBENVILLE...

SHARON...HERMITAGE...GROVE CITY...GREENVILLE...FARRELL...

OIL CITY...FRANKLIN...SUGARCREEK...TIONESTA...NEW CASTLE...

ELLWOOD CITY...BUTLER...ZELIENOPLE...CLARION...PUNXSUTAWNEY...

BROOKVILLE...REYNOLDSVILLE...BROCKWAY...ALIQUIPPA...

BEAVER FALLS...AMBRIDGE...MONACA...BEAVER...

PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...KITTANNING...FORD CITY...LEECHBURG...

FREEPORT...APOLLO...INDIANA...WASHINGTON...CANONSBURG...DONORA...

CALIFORNIA...CHARLEROI...MONONGAHELA...MCMURRAY...WAYNESBURG...

FAIRDALE...GREENSBURG...NEW KENSINGTON...JEANNETTE...LATROBE...

MONESSEN...LIGONIER...DONEGAL...NEW FLORENCE...ACME...CHAMPION...

UNIONTOWN...CONNELLSVILLE...POINT MARION...NORMALVILLE...

FARMINGTON...OHIOPYLE...MARKLEYSBURG...TORONTO...WEIRTON...

WHEELING...KINGWOOD...TERRA ALTA...PARSONS...DAVIS...THOMAS

545 PM EST SUN FEB 20 2011

...BRIEF HEAVY SNOW THIS EVENING...

A BURST OF HEAVY SNOW MAY BE EXPECTED EARLY THIS EVENING A WARM

FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO

RAIN OVER AREAS SOUTH OF THE PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE AS THE EVENING

PROGRESSES.

THE SNOW WILL DROP VISIBILITY DRAMATICALLY TO LESS THAN A MILE AND

WILL ACCUMULATE QUICKLY ON GRASSY AREAS. APPROXIMATELY AN INCH

MAY BE ANTICIPATED.

MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR SUDDEN DROPS IN VISIBILITY AND SLOW

DOWN IMMEDIATELY WHEN SNOW IS ENCOUNTERED.

$$

15

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It's really strange that on the radar, western PA started as rain, then switched to snow. I really thought it would be the other way around.

The dew points were in the 20s when the precip started, thus we got a good bit of evaporational cooling. Now when the next batch moves in, it may start as some frozen but will quickly transition over to rain as we get a strong surge of warm air.

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Wow...00z nam is looking colder and wetter....going to be close here, but I think we might get a huge surprise.

I definitely agree... I wouldn't be surprised to see warnings and advisories go up late tonight or tomorrow morning. I think this is really going to be a surprise to a lot of the people around here.

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Omg, omg, omg!!! Look at hour 30 on the nam!!!!

Lol, I just got chills!!!

LOL....

Easy now....this has been all over the place. But that is looking juicy and all snow in that hr 24 to hr 30 window.

I would think this zips along far too quickly for that....but....maybe this is shaping up as a nice 3" to 6" thump

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NWS just updated Counties along I-80 to winter storm warning and counties immediately south of the interstate to a winter weather advisory. Both are for freezing rain tonight. Nothing for tomorrow yet.

I think if the gfs comes in like the nam youll see at least an advisory for kpit....nam is 6-8 inches, and has a 6 hour period of an inch per hour.

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I think if the gfs comes in like the nam youll see at least an advisory for kpit....nam is 6-8 inches, and has a 6 hour period of an inch per hour.

What will help tommorow night, is that the low and mid level cold air will be moving perpendicular to the upper level moisture flow.

This should help the precip from getting swept away too quickly.

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NAM is ridiculous! Could be our biggest snowfall of the season if it is correct. Hard to get excited though until I see the GFS come in line. Still think qpf is likely overdone but it is reassuring to see the NAM basically hold / improve for us.

Only thing I'm worried about is how progressive it looks....just hard to get more than 4" from this type of setup.

That being said, I would gladly take a 4" thump in a 6 to 8 hour period. Would probably prefer that to our "biggest" storm of the winter which was 7" over 48 hours.

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The incoming 0z Euro has pretty much 0.5-0.6" give or take a tenth of QPF on the text output for event #2 for Washington (AFJ), Pittsburgh (PIT), and Butler (BTP). Pittsburgh MAY briefly start as non-snow, but I don't think it'll be an issue. Washington may have some rain to start.

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The incoming 0z Euro has pretty much 0.5-0.6" give or take a tenth of QPF on the text output for event #2 for Washington (AFJ), Pittsburgh (PIT), and Butler (BTP). Pittsburgh MAY briefly start as non-snow, but I don't think it'll be an issue. Washington may have some rain to start.

Thanks for the info, that pretty much agrees with most other guidance is saying right now.

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