PottercountyWXobserver Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 00Z GFS is very interesting at Hr 189. Could be a 1000ft asl snowstorm if this verified. Anything below 1000ft, and especially 800ft, climo takes over. This storm is more of a tease than a VIP room! What a begining to the winter if this were to verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 This storm is more of a tease than a VIP room! What a begining to the winter if this were to verify Well, I know most of you aren't probably really paying attention, but the GFS just put out about .3 inches of QPF for WPA on Saturday of snow. And this thing has been more west on every run...interesting indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Well, I know most of you aren't probably really paying attention, but the GFS just put out about .3 inches of QPF for WPA on Saturday of snow. And this thing has been more west on every run...interesting indeed. [/quote 0 GFS now has further north and west and gives us some snow. NAM and Canadian are further north and west but still too far east to give us anything but a few flakes. Maybe the Laurels will see a few inches. Will have to wait til tomorrow to see if the west trend continues. I would bet it stops and we just miss out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 948 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2011 .SYNOPSIS... DRY BUT COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. SOME PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING SNOW...IS POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AGAIN AFFECTS THE REGION...BUT SUNDAY LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY REBUILDS. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... LATE EVE UPDATE FEATURED SOME CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM TO INCLUDE A TREND TOWARD SOME SNOW FOR AREAS EAST AND SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS BLANKET IST STILL EXPECTED TO SUFFICIENTLY CLEAR TNGT FOR FROST FORMATION AND STEAM FOG DEVELOPMENT NEAR WATER SOURCES. NO FROST/FREEZE HEADLINE IS NEEDED AS THE GROWING SEASON HAS ENDED. DRY/GENERALLY SUNNY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE UP ALONG THE COAST. GIVEN LAST COUPLE OF DETERMINISTIC MDL SOLNS...HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE LIGHT SNOW...TO SNOW CHANCE EARLY ON SATURDAY FOR AREAS EAST AND SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH. GFS AND NAM ARE EXHIBITING AN AREA OF MID LVL...MOIST FRONTOGENESIS ON THE ERN FLANK OF THE OPEN MID LVL TROUGH AXIS. THIS IS PROJECTED OVR THE LLVL COLD ADVCTN REGIME ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE COASTAL LOW...WHICH WOULD FAVOR SNOW. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION IN THE GRIDS. SITUATION WL HAVE TO MONITORED FOR ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL AND POSSIBLE HEADLINES...ESPECIALLY FOR THE RIDGE ZONES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Oz GFS gives us .5 liquid equiv of snow now, lol. If we got 1-2 inches I'd be thrilled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The NWS seems to be on board now for us to at least get some accumulation out of it before it turns to rain tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The NWS seems to be on board now for us to at least get some accumulation out of it before it turns to rain tomorrow afternoon. Don't look now but the 06Z GFS crushes western PA for a change! I vote this lol to bad its 180hr and will most likely not be there the time the 12Z run comes out. Ughhh we can dream right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I think this one may be yet another miss for us. We may be lucky to see any accumulation while places to our east are supposed to get pounded. Johnstown could see up to 6 inches. Harrisburg 6 to 10. I even checked Morgantown's forecast and they're supposed to get about 2 to 4 before it turns to rain. Business as usual in the Pittsburgh area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I think this one may be yet another miss for us. We may be lucky to see any accumulation while places to our east are supposed to get pounded. Johnstown could see up to 6 inches. Harrisburg 6 to 10. I even checked Morgantown's forecast and they're supposed to get about 2 to 4 before it turns to rain. Business as usual in the Pittsburgh area. I don't know...most models are now showing around 3-.5 liquid QPF...I thikn we might see an inch or too, which is pretty nice for late october! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Don't look now but the 06Z GFS crushes western PA for a change! I vote this lol to bad its 180hr and will most likely not be there the time the 12Z run comes out. Ughhh we can dream right. This looks more like a wave developing along a front, so chances are the whole evolution of this thing will be different or just totally gone by 12z. I don't know...most models are now showing around 3-.5 liquid QPF...I thikn we might see an inch or too, which is pretty nice for late october! I'd be surprised to see more than a coating in our area. Models keep us out of the heavier rates, with marginal temps and climo against us I would be careful interpreting what the models show as accumulating snow, but hey its only October, this is like the preseason lol. Can't believe I got sucked into looking at the models for a snows storm in October! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I agree with you on both counts. We all know that Pittsburgh gets about 200 inches of snow annually from long range models. I think that as long as the models don't shift any farther west, we may get a coating on the grassy surfaces during the morning. (naturally, further south and east may see an inch or so.) This is a storm where it doesn't pay to be north and west. Also, as much as I want a big snow storm now is not the time for me. I have 3 large oaks in my yard that are still about 1/2 full of large leaves. I would hate to have them damaged. This looks more like a wave developing along a front, so chances are the whole evolution of this thing will be different or just totally gone by 12z. I'd be surprised to see more than a coating in our area. Models keep us out of the heavier rates, with marginal temps and climo against us I would be careful interpreting what the models show as accumulating snow, but hey its only October, this is like the preseason lol. Can't believe I got sucked into looking at the models for a snows storm in October! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I know that you guys are dismissing this, but the GFS has shown half an inch of QPF here the last three runs....SREF's are looking rather similar. I think this is really going to surprise some people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITblizz Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'll take this lol In October Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Could you guys imagine if Rants was here...he'd be screaming bloody murder right now about an entire forest falling on his house, and his roof collapsing up in the Laurel's...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Could you guys imagine if Rants was here...he'd be screaming bloody murder right now about an entire forest falling on his house, and his roof collapsing up in the Laurel's...lol. Good one. Whatever happened to him anyway. Will he come back as another name soon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I know that you guys are dismissing this, but the GFS has shown half an inch of QPF here the last three runs....SREF's are looking rather similar. I think this is really going to surprise some people. I am not dismissing however we are ever so close to the edge. The Ohio-Pa border has nothing so it will be close. If we don't get heavier rates it will snow but may not stick much. It will be interesting to watch though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Good one. Whatever happened to him anyway. Will he come back as another name soon? I'm guessing after the second ban he gave up, or they just banned his IP...I am pretty sure though that he had a couple more names too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Canadian is now on board with the GFS. http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html Click on animate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Could you guys imagine if Rants was here...he'd be screaming bloody murder right now about an entire forest falling on his house, and his roof collapsing up in the Laurel's...lol. And then he'd be blaming all of us for it on top of that. Lol Yeah, we'll see how this one shakes out. It isn't too often that we get accumulating snows of any kind around here in October. Reminds me of Halloween 1991. I still think most of whatever falls isn't going to lay due to the temps and time of year. It's like when we get snows in April. Just has a hard time laying unless the snow is very heavy. If this trends further north and west, then things could get a little more interesting. Not much time left for that. NWS isn't quite on board with anything more than a coating it looks like, depending on where you live. Some place a little less or more than that. Things can change of course. We weren't even talking about this at all a day or two ago. At least I wasn't anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 the GFS has shown half an inch of QPF here the last three runs....SREF's are looking rather similar. I think this is really going to surprise some people. The Ohio-Pa border has nothing so it will be close. If we don't get heavier rates it will snow but may not stick much. It will be interesting to watch though. Yeah, we'll see how this one shakes out. It isn't too often that we get accumulating snows of any kind around here in October. Reminds me of Halloween 1991. It will be interesting to see how things play out overnight. Usually for us to get something decent, you wanna see that vort max over the tennesse valley when the H5 trough goes neg. Right now it's modeled to be over southern W.V., however if it shifts a bit more SW, that would help draw more precip back toward Pgh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Well, I'm in Washington right now working and there's about an inch of snow on the ground here and it's coming down at a moderate clip. Heavy wet snow that's just laying on the grass. Not sure what you guys are getting up around Pittsburgh right now. Looks like it's going to be around for a while yet. I figure once the sun rises a lot of this will start melting and eventually some rain will mix back in. Not bad at all for October 29th though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 Hi All! I had to find this "favorite" again and remember my login....I was at my camp last weekend in farmington (by ohiopyle) and we had about 4" there!! it was pretty cool for October!.....good to see everyone again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 Time for yinz to post in your winter thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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