CoraopolisWx Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 I'm not terribly excited about this situation. I live east of the city in extreme western Westmoreland county and at a lower elevation (~950 feet ) so with the heavier snow falling in the western counties combined with marginal temps I am thinking I will be fortunate to get 2-4 inches. Not bad for this time of year though, and it is definitly an interesting situation that will have some surprises, and some disappointments depending what you are looking for as the event unfolds. 18Z NAM looks like places just east of the PA/OH border will get the lighter amounts. Hopefully for us it shifts east a bit to get everyone into the heavier stuff! I hear ya, I'm at 750 ft myself. Although as long as we get a few hours on SN+, it should be pretty cool to walk around in. Although, since i've lived down here, I have noticed that elevation comes into play more when the winds are east or northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Still not buying this at all. I'm going 1-3 total. Hope I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 I hear ya, I'm at 750 ft myself. Although as long as we get a few hours on SN+, it should be pretty cool to walk around in. Although, since i've lived down here, I have noticed that elevation comes into play more when the winds are east or northeast. Its amazing what a difference even a 100 feet in elevation can make. On my drive to work the elevation goes close to 1200 feet and when temps are marginal there might be snow covered roads yet when I get home snow is struggling to accumulate on the grass. Can get frustrating;ting sometimes, but it does pay off in the early spring and late fall for extending the growing season. I am looking forward to seeing everything plastered with a coating of wet snow as it should stick to just about everything! Will make for some awesome scenery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Still not buying this at all. I'm going 1-3 total. Hope I'm wrong. Look's like your getting drenched right now, close to 40dbz rolling through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Look's like your getting drenched right now, close to 40dbz rolling through. Lol...all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 My temp went down a degree 38.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted March 11, 2011 Author Share Posted March 11, 2011 Pretty good dynamic cooling as the H5 low deepens. Down to 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 My temp went down a degree 38.5 Up north of you we are falling slower. 39.2. I am guessing we mix by 10:00 or so. Seems like the heavier precip is ending. I think at some point the "Snow, heavy at times" will be dropped in the forecast wording, especially tomorrow when I think it will be off and on light snow with light rain mixing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 Alright you pgh-er's, I haven't forgot about you guys. Still looking pretty good for salvaging a half decent snowfall behind all of the rain that this storm has been/is still delivering. For reference, here is what I mentioned on this threat over in the CPA thread on Tuesday night. The secondary-ish aspect is the snowfall potential at both the start and end of the event. Shouldn't be too impressive but the initial snow/sleet will probably dump 1-2 inches in places like JST, AOO, IPT with maybe an extra inch or so in the advised region. Wouldn't be surprised if not much at all amounted from that, but it'l'l depend on how fast things can move in. The bigger thing to keep an eye on is when the secondary develops and where a possible deform band ends up. This likely won't be anything like the magnitude of what just transpired but there could be a decent advisory or so event in store for whoever is in the right place. Right now barring a last second southeast shift it appears that the potential deform snowfall will be featured more west/nw than it was with the last storm, favoring perhaps the northwest 1/3 of PA. This has a pretty big likelihood of behaving how these rainstorm changing to snow setups normally behave... not really delivering a bunch of snow except for a lil backside in the nw and laurels. But we'll see. (last sentence referring to nw part of the CPA region) Haven't really changed my thoughts too much, I think that Pittsburgh metro and surrounding areas see a good general 3-5 inches of concrete snow and right on up I-79 .Some higher spots south of say about I-80 may see scattered areas of the 6-8 variety pop up, like in the high metro spots/suburbs and perhaps the western edge of the Laurels if the shield gets east enough. Once to I-80 and up, its probably more of a 6-8 inch event. Best place is likely to be, as someone had mentioned..Youngstown to Cleveland. There, the strong northerly flow over Lake Erie is probably going to have a hand in enhancing snowfall rates for a longer period of time while everyone else's snow starts to lighten up during the day. Some totals over 10 inches are pretty likely in that region with a general 8-12" overall. Could this overdo like the last one? Maybe, but it doesn't seem as likely this go around. The Euro seems like the only model in that camp of delivering a widespread warning level snowfall, other models seem to support closer to a high end advisory for the Pittsburgh area. With the last event, most of the models were printing out big potential snowfall but it didn't seem to be believed all the way until it was obvious it was going to be a big snowstorm. Count me in on that, I was pondering if a place like State College could manage 2-4, and they ended up with 10. This storm seems more destined to be a moderate snowfall maker, with perhaps a mild chance of it being an underachiever. The heaviest snowfall in Pitt probably falls in the earlier morning hours, which could be good to get things "efficiently" accumulated since the sun angle won't factor in as much. Actual snow ratios are probably going to be pretty crappy overall.. 10:1 or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 New NAM might give us two inches...I'm completely baffled...I am not seeing model support for this. Why are we under a warning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherman5416 Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 Has anyone seen the changeover to snow yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 still rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted March 11, 2011 Author Share Posted March 11, 2011 Has anyone seen the changeover to snow yet? Rain, but down to 34. Looks like New Castle has changed over... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted March 11, 2011 Author Share Posted March 11, 2011 Rain, but down to 34. Looks like New Castle has changed over... Meh...back up to 35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 Wow is this going to be a huge bust... I really hope I am wrong, and I KNOW I am sounding like Rants, but I just see very little going on from this..and Ireally see no chance at warning level snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 Once the column cools, where will the banding set-up ? The low is slowly strengthening, so the area of snow should start becoming more enhanced overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PittWeatherWatch Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 37 and all rain here in latrobe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 Once the column cools, where will the banding set-up ? The low is slowly strengthening, so the area of snow should start becoming more enhanced overnight. Well, where are you thinking? I can see us possibly getting a dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawx1 Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 Just looked outside. We have changed to snow. Not sure when the change over happened as I was studying for a test and not paying attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 Well, where are you thinking? I can see us possibly getting a dry slot. It's hard to say right now..... This set up is kinda weird, something we don't usually see. Last sunday was a bit easier, all you did was see where the rain/snow line stalled, and there was your heaviest snow. At this time everything is a bit muddled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherman5416 Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 I just switched over to a mix of rain and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted March 11, 2011 Author Share Posted March 11, 2011 Snow mixing in here in Hampton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 Snow mixing here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 Gfs=inch of snow. Radar looks awful too..could see dry slot in 4-5 hous if not less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted March 11, 2011 Author Share Posted March 11, 2011 New NAM might give us two inches...I'm completely baffled...I am not seeing model support for this. Why are we under a warning? Gfs=inch of snow. Radar looks awful too..could see dry slot in 4-5 hous if not less. I certainly agree that there is high bust potential here...but... The NAM was more like 4" or so. I haven't looked closely at the GFS wrt QPF after the changeover, but it looks like more than an inch. Really, it's been the Euro that's been the bigger hit. Snowing a little harder now, with a dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 I certainly agree that there is high bust potential here...but... The NAM was more like 4" or so. I haven't looked closely at the GFS wrt QPF after the changeover, but it looks like more than an inch. Really, it's been the Euro that's been the bigger hit. Snowing a little harder now, with a dusting. Well, I'm looking at the radar now, and i just don't see where this is going to come from..plus the fact that it is supposed to snow through tomorrow evening and it looks like things might be wrapped up by 10am tomorrow... I honestly think the nws has very little idea. I just wish they would have mentioned that in their afd rather than put very little all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 I'm getting heavy snow now quickly coating up the grassy areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 Well, I'm looking at the radar now, and i just don't see where this is going to come from..plus the fact that it is supposed to snow through tomorrow evening and it looks like things might be wrapped up by 10am tomorrow... I honestly think the nws has very little idea. I just wish they would have mentioned that in their afd rather than put very little all day. I don't know either. What I do know is it is snowing hard here now and starting to accumulate. According to NWS they have the NAM as giving us 3 to 3.6 inches or so. http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=kpit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 Looking at the radar, the precip is really intensifying over our area right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted March 11, 2011 Author Share Posted March 11, 2011 Well, I'm looking at the radar now, and i just don't see where this is going to come from..plus the fact that it is supposed to snow through tomorrow evening and it looks like things might be wrapped up by 10am tomorrow... I honestly think the nws has very little idea. I just wish they would have mentioned that in their afd rather than put very little all day. Well it is a deepening closed low, which means it could (should) blossom over us. This is much different than the storm a few weeks ago where the radar had to look great because the storm was zipping along so fast. As far as NWS not being certain.....I think they did say just that. Here is an excerpt from earlier.... STILL EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE TO WET SNOW LATE THIS EVENING AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE MID TO LOWER 30S. ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL START AROUND MIDNIGHT, AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RECOGNIZE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FORECAST, AS TIMING OF TEMPERATURE DROP TO 32 DEGREES WILL IN PART DEPEND ON DYNAMIC COOLING IN THE ZONE OF STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE POST SYSTEM DEFORMATION PROCESS. ALSO TEMPERATURES CAN RECOVER TO THE MID 30S FRIDAY AFTERNOON IF SNOWFALL RATES DECREASE, WHICH CAN RESULT IN A CHANGE BACK TO RAIN. I wouldn't bet the house on this either, but let's give it a chance to play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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