Burghblizz Posted March 10, 2011 Author Share Posted March 10, 2011 Anybody see or hear what the 12Z Euro showed? I, like most, really wasn't paying attention. I would expect that it showed a pretty major hit for the NWS to jump on it this quick, given the U.S. models have inconsistencies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 I'm calling game over...I think the wsw was too reactionary...nam is a big dryslot for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 I'm calling game over...I think the wsw was too reactionary...nam is a big dryslot for us. I wouldn't give up just yet. It looks weird to me. On the 18z the low moves north-northeast. On the 0z it takes a jog west and then moves due North. It is such a fine line. The snow band will be somewhere between Eastern Ohio and Pa. border and just East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 After running through a bunch of recent models, it doesn't look great. Most of the models have the Low running a line from Morgantown and then straight north, or slightly west of there. It is never good to be on the south side of the Low. Unless something changes tomorrow the consensus would not give us much snow. I'm not sure why PIT had some sort of knee-jerk reaction. Perhaps they were concerned extra because of the President's Day fiasco? It is good to alert the public but I think perhaps they could have waited until tomorrow and then issue either a WWA or WSW based upon guidance...or nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 I'm calling game over...I think the wsw was too reactionary...nam is a big dryslot for us. After running through a bunch of recent models, it doesn't look great. Most of the models have the Low running a line from Morgantown and then straight north, or slightly west of there. It is never good to be on the south side of the Low. Unless something changes tomorrow the consensus would not give us much snow. I'm not sure why PIT had some sort of knee-jerk reaction. Perhaps they were concerned extra because of the President's Day fiasco? It is good to alert the public but I think perhaps they could have waited until tomorrow and then issue either a WWA or WSW based upon guidance...or nothing. That's great to hear, now you two get to sit this one out and relax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 That's great to hear, now you two get to sit this one out and relax. What exactly was wrong with my post? I didn't mean for it to sound whiny or something, just had an honest opinion on the current state of affairs. And I was going to amend to above, but the 12Z WRF is actually the best looking hit. I don't know how accurate that model is, though, I don't follow it ever. The CMC is decent as well, actually similar to the WRF. The GFS is west of here with the "finger" of snow. The UKIE and NOGAPS are both misses, for the most part. Most of the SREF models are on the same page and don't give us much. The 0Z NAM is exactly like the GFS and keeps the bulk West of here in Ohio. I think the 0Z Euro will tell a lot. The 12Z looks to move the Low directly over us. With the NAM and GFS currently in agreement, I'd say that result has a decent shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 What exactly was wrong with my post? I didn't mean for it to sound whiny or something, just had an honest opinion on the current state of affairs. And I was going to amend to above, but the 12Z WRF is actually the best looking hit. I don't know how accurate that model is, though, I don't follow it ever. The CMC is decent as well, actually similar to the WRF. The GFS is west of here with the "finger" of snow. The UKIE and NOGAPS are both misses, for the most part. Most of the SREF models are on the same page and don't give us much. The 0Z NAM is exactly like the GFS and keeps the bulk West of here in Ohio. I think the 0Z Euro will tell a lot. The 12Z looks to move the Low directly over us. With the NAM and GFS currently in agreement, I'd say that result has a decent shot. It's cool.... I mean you guys might end up being correct, but it's just so early to say anything right now. I just see potential with all that H5 energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 It's cool.... I mean you guys might end up being correct, but it's just so early to say anything right now. I just see potential with all that H5 energy. I agree with you concerning the H5 energy, it just looks like, as of now, that eastern Ohio is going to benefit the most from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Anybody see or hear what the 12Z Euro showed? I, like most, really wasn't paying attention. I would expect that it showed a pretty major hit for the NWS to jump on it this quick, given the U.S. models have inconsistencies. Looking at the 12z Euro for your guys area, it dropped .50-1.00qpf worth of snow across the Eastern 1/4 of OH, Northwest WV, and western tier of PA from Greene Co. north to Erie Co. Further east across the remainder of the Pbz cwa, it was .30-.50 QPF worth of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Looking at the 12z Euro for your guys area, it dropped .50-1.00qpf worth of snow across the Eastern 1/4 of OH, Northwest WV, and western tier of PA from Washington Co. north to Erie Co. Further east across the remainder of the Pbz cwa, it was .30-.50 QPF worth of snow. Thanks for helping us out. The CMC still has the snow band more over Western Pa. than Eastern Ohio. We may just have to sit and watch late tomorrow night to see where the heavier snow sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Thanks for helping us out. No problem. The new 0z Euro will be out in another 45 minutes and I'll be back with the results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Alright, 0z Euro is in. All in all, doesn't look like much change from the 12z run. Basically looks like .50-.75 QPF worth of snow across most of Western PA with lesser amounts (.25-.50) across the interior ridges in the eastern part of pbz cwa. The bullseye for snow continues to be Northeast OH... with Cleveland receiving 1.00-1.25 QPF worth of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Alright, 0z Euro is in. All in all, doesn't look like much change from the 12z run. Basically looks like .50-.75 QPF worth of snow across most of Western PA with lesser amounts (.25-.50) across the interior ridges in the eastern part of pbz cwa. The bullseye for snow continues to be Northeast OH... with Cleveland receiving 1.00-1.25 QPF worth of snow. Thank You for the update. That does seem to be falling in line with what the NWS is still forecasting as of this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 This is going to be another time that I am going to say the nWS is out to lunch, just like they were on that storm a couple weeks ago. The ARW, SREF's NAM, GFS, and i also believe the Canadians are showing this to the west of us. I think we'll be lucky to see 2 inches at this point. That could change at 12z today, but I don't know what they're lloooking at, and they don't explain either as their forecast discussion on this is pathetic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITblizz Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 And the 12z nam increases the qpf again.. could be a decent hit this run. Decent shift so close to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted March 10, 2011 Author Share Posted March 10, 2011 This is going to be another time that I am going to say the nWS is out to lunch, just like they were on that storm a couple weeks ago. The ARW, SREF's NAM, GFS, and i also believe the Canadians are showing this to the west of us. I think we'll be lucky to see 2 inches at this point. That could change at 12z today, but I don't know what they're lloooking at, and they don't explain either as their forecast discussion on this is pathetic. I think they are looking at the Euro....plus.... There are some analogs for us for late season significant snow events with a retrograding low captured at H5. I just wish it starts a little further east. I'm thinking a fairly prolonged period of snow with some heavier bursts.....maybe 3 to 6" over 24 to 30 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 I think they are looking at the Euro....plus.... There are some analogs for us for late season significant snow events with a retrograding low captured at H5. I just wish it starts a little further east. I'm thinking a fairly prolonged period of snow with some heavier bursts.....maybe 3 to 6" over 24 to 30 hours? Seems to be what the new NAM is going with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 I think they are looking at the Euro....plus.... There are some analogs for us for late season significant snow events with a retrograding low captured at H5. I just wish it starts a little further east. I'm thinking a fairly prolonged period of snow with some heavier bursts.....maybe 3 to 6" over 24 to 30 hours? If that ends up being the case, then we'll probably see the WSW turn into a WWA with the next forecast. 3 to 6 spread out over that long of a period would be WWA criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Once the storm strengthens, it will be interesting to see how intense some of these snow bands get. I'm actually looking foward to seeing how to whole system plays out tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 There is still a WSW as of 10:33AM. I can't post it from my phone, but they really haven't changed the wording much. Still saying over 6 inches is possible. What makes this one very interesting to me is that we have 50 degree temps today and this time tomorrow we'll be dealing with a snowstorm of at least some degree. Very interesting system to track for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 12z Euro has come in slightly colder and wetter for Western PA. The changeover line is entering Southwest PA by 7PM this evening, and everyone has changed over before 1AM with moderate-to-heavy snow across all of Western PA. The period of heaviest snow is from late this Evening into Friday Morning, with lighter snows during the day on Friday into Friday Evening. Altogether, looks like .70-1.00 QPF worth of snow across the bulk of Western PA... with highest totals along the OH Border. Lesser amounts (.35-.70 QPF) for the interior ridges (esp. northeast) of Pbz cwa. Pretty big difference between the GFS and Euro as far as Western PA is concerned. That said, its shaping up to be a wild Evening / Overnight in Western PA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 There is still a WSW as of 10:33AM. I can't post it from my phone, but they really haven't changed the wording much. Still saying over 6 inches is possible. What makes this one very interesting to me is that we have 50 degree temps today and this time tomorrow we'll be dealing with a snowstorm of at least some degree. Very interesting system to track for sure. Last Sunday in State College it was 50 and rain at 8 am. By 3 pm it was total chaos on the roads and S+ with 34 degrees. That was a wild day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 12z Euro has come in slightly colder and wetter for Western PA. The changeover line is entering Southwest PA by 7PM this evening, and everyone has changed over before 1AM with moderate-to-heavy snow across all of Western PA. The period of heaviest snow is from late this Evening into Friday Morning, with lighter snows during the day on Friday into Friday Evening. Altogether, looks like .70-1.00 QPF worth of snow across the bulk of Western PA... with highest totals along the OH Border. Lesser amounts (.35-.70 QPF) for the interior ridges (esp. northeast) of Pbz cwa. Pretty big difference between the GFS and Euro as far as Western PA is concerned. That said, its shaping up to be a wild Evening / Overnight in Western PA... That's interesting considering they dropped the snow totals here from 5-9" to 3-6" (1-2" tonight then 2-4" tomorrow). Perhaps they are blending the two models and hedging a little because I suppose the heaviest snow bands will be fairly localized. A slight correction East or West could mean a big difference. If they are standing by those latter totals then the WSW should be dropped to a WWA at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 That's interesting considering they dropped the snow totals here from 5-9" to 3-6" (1-2" tonight then 2-4" tomorrow). Perhaps they are blending the two models and hedging a little because I suppose the heaviest snow bands will be fairly localized. A slight correction East or West could mean a big difference. If they are standing by those latter totals then the WSW should be dropped to a WWA at some point. Based on the 12z Euro and updated graphics from HPC, I think they will upgrade atleast their Eastern OH counties + Western Tier counties of PA along the OH / WV border to a warning. Tough call for Allegheny / Butler / Venango counties as they could go either way depending on which solution wins out. Best chance for significant accum's would be in the western parts of those 3 counties... Here is the latest HPC probabilities for >4 / >8 / >12... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherman5416 Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Based on the 12z Euro and updated graphics from HPC, I think they will upgrade atleast their Eastern OH counties + Western Tier counties of PA along the OH / WV border to a warning. Here is the latest HPC probabilities for >4 / >8 / >12... Yeah, that definitely looks good for some decent accumulations. I bet they will update in the next 30 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Based on the 12z Euro and updated graphics from HPC, I think they will upgrade atleast their Eastern OH counties + Western Tier counties of PA along the OH / WV border to a warning. Tough call for Allegheny / Butler / Venango counties as they could go either way depending on which solution wins out. Best chance for significant accum's would be in the western parts of those 3 counties... Here is the latest HPC probabilities for >4 / >8 / >12... Youngstown to Cleveland is going to be the sweet spot for heaviest snow. This little band could still however move a little East or West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 I'm not terribly excited about this situation. I live east of the city in extreme western Westmoreland county and at a lower elevation (~950 feet ) so with the heavier snow falling in the western counties combined with marginal temps I am thinking I will be fortunate to get 2-4 inches. Not bad for this time of year though, and it is definitly an interesting situation that will have some surprises, and some disappointments depending what you are looking for as the event unfolds. 18Z NAM looks like places just east of the PA/OH border will get the lighter amounts. Hopefully for us it shifts east a bit to get everyone into the heavier stuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 351 PM EST THU MAR 10 2011 ...WINTER STORM WARNING... .RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OHZ039>041-049-050-058-059-PAZ007-008-013-014-020-021-029- WVZ001>003-110500- /O.UPG.KPBZ.WS.A.0006.110311T0200Z-110312T0200Z/ /O.NEW.KPBZ.WS.W.0007.110311T0300Z-110312T0000Z/ TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-HARRISON-JEFFERSON OH-GUERNSEY- BELMONT-MERCER-VENANGO-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY- WASHINGTON-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW PHILADELPHIA...DOVER... UHRICHSVILLE...CARROLLTON...EAST LIVERPOOL...SALEM...COLUMBIANA... EAST PALESTINE...WELLSVILLE...CALCUTTA...CADIZ...HOPEDALE... STEUBENVILLE...CAMBRIDGE...MARTINS FERRY...ST. CLAIRSVILLE... BELLAIRE...BARNESVILLE...SHADYSIDE...BRIDGEPORT...SHARON... HERMITAGE...GROVE CITY...GREENVILLE...FARRELL...OIL CITY... FRANKLIN...SUGARCREEK...NEW CASTLE...ELLWOOD CITY...BUTLER... ZELIENOPLE...ALIQUIPPA...BEAVER FALLS...AMBRIDGE...MONACA... BEAVER...PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...WASHINGTON...CANONSBURG... DONORA...CALIFORNIA...CHARLEROI...MONONGAHELA...MCMURRAY... TORONTO...WEIRTON...WHEELING 351 PM EST THU MAR 10 2011 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW * ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW. * TIMING...RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. * STORM IMPACTS...DIFFICULT TRAVEL... PARTICULARLY FOR THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE. SNOW DENSITY MAYBE THE HEAVY WET TYPE, HINDERING REMOVAL. POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE. WET SNOW CAN CLING TO WIRES, TREE LIMBS, AND SIGNS, WHICH CAN BE SHAKEN OFF AND BROKEN BY GUSTY WINDS. * WINDS...WEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S. * VISIBILITIES...REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO IN HEAVY SNOWFALL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED. GUSTY WINDS CAN ADD TO THE HAZARDS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT... FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. REPORT YOUR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1-877-633-6772. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Pbz upgraded the Western Tier of PA (excluding Greene Co.) + Venango / Allegheny / Butler counties to a Warning for 4-8". WWA further south / east for 3-6... Enjoy guys, hope it works out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Thanks for the update! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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