Digger Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 I dunno, guys. I'm looking at the radar, and the back edge of the precipitation has a pretty sharp cutoff, and it doesn't look like more than a couple of hours of frozen. Where's all this snow going to come from? Sleet here ATTM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digger Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Sleet here ATTM. Has changed to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted March 6, 2011 Author Share Posted March 6, 2011 I dunno, guys. I'm looking at the radar, and the back edge of the precipitation has a pretty sharp cutoff, and it doesn't look like more than a couple of hours of frozen. Where's all this snow going to come from? Sleet here ATTM. Backend isn't making a ton of eastward progress as more precip comes north. That being said, it will continue to slide east. I currently got moderate snow and a pretty good coating on everything. I'm thinking a quick couple inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Backend isn't making a ton of eastward progress as more precip comes north. That being said, it will continue to slide east. I currently got moderate snow and a pretty good coating on everything. I'm thinking a quick couple inches Same here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 I wonder why PBZ has the advisory in the north... on radar, it looks like PIT south are getting more of the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted March 6, 2011 Author Share Posted March 6, 2011 I wonder why PBZ has the advisory in the north... on radar, it looks like PIT south are getting more of the snow. Earlier changeover - so if that verifies you would think most of it already fell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Yeah, it looks like the 1008 mb low in SC doesn't quite have the gusto to keep the precip going to much longer. By the time the low reaches decent strength, it will be too far north to effect us here. Cleveland had a solid 3" this morning, parts of 76 were tough to drive on earlier. It was actually easier to drive 60-65 mph than 45-50 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digger Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 I didn't bother measuring here at home, but I'd estimate just over an inch on the picnic table, a slushy half inch on the driveway. Down in Pittsburgh, I did measure an inch in Squirell Hill, on a piece of lumber. The parking area around it ranged from snowy to bare and wet. On the Southside, slushy sidewalks, but 1/4 mile away, sidewalks just wet. Looked like 1/2 to 3/4 on the cars. In Carnegie, a parking lot that was slushy at 8 a.m. had melted to just wet by 11:30 a.m., without me bothering to salt it. So, ok, the forecast for 1-3 inches verified, but unless the back edge of the precip comes back west, NWS gets failing marks on the timing of it all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 A very light snow continues to fall. We're just barely hanging on to that back edge right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Looking good up and down the I 99 corridor especially around State college and surrounding area I 99 and US 322 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 Just missed out on the heavy snow. The timing had to be perfect on this one, the cold air came in just a bit too early. Central Pa is getting a decent hit though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 I had some snow earlier, then rain. Now it has switched back to sleet and wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITblizz Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Lol. New nam, one more solid hit for the season? @24 hr precip through 66. A lot of this appears frozen.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 I just saw that too. The scary thing is the other models are similar and this is only 48 hours out. This would be a solid 2-4 (or maybe more) inch snow for Friday, assuming it is cold enough. At this time I am ready for spring but these kinds of storms make things interesting and at least we wouldn't have to wait long for it to melt. Lol. New nam, one more solid hit for the season? @24 hr precip through 66. A lot of this appears frozen.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 LOL, I just got home and saw the nws forecast for thursday nite and friday. It's almost too crazy too be real, but we'll see i guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 LOL, I just got home and saw the nws forecast for thursday nite and friday. It's almost too crazy too be real, but we'll see i guess. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1216 PM EST WED MAR 9 2011 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE, MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN INTO EARLY THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY COLDER TEMPERATURES AND SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion --HAVE ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GARRETT COUNTY MARYLAND WHERE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MAY NOT END UNTIL AROUND 2 PM WHEN TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. BLEND OF RECENT HRRR AND NAM MODEL OUTPUT SHOW HEAVIER RAIN MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, SO THE FLOOD WATCH IS CONTINUED. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES BASED ON BLEND OF RECENT HRRR, HIRES-NMM, NAM AND SREF MODEL OUTPUT. AS THE STORM DRAWS CLOSER TODAY GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH.-- End Changed Discussion -- && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --BLEND OF RECENT SREF AND ECMWF MODEL OUTPUT SHOW POST SYSTEM COLD AIR CAUSING A CHANGE TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WILL BE UPPING SNOW CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND DAYTIME FRIDAY, AS RECENT GFS/ECMWF/NAM MODEL OUTPUTS CONTINUE TO SHOW THERE CAN BE A PERIOD OF ENHANCED LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMMA HEAD DEFORMATION ZONE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BORDERLINE, IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. HOWEVER, IF COLD ENOUGH, SNOW AMOUNTS MAY REQUIRE HEADLINES, BUT WILL CONFER WITH HPC WWD GUIDANCE BEFORE CONSIDERING A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THIS PERIOD.-- End Changed Discussion -- && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... BLEND OF RECENT NAEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MODEL OUTPUTS SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, COMING EASTWARD FROM MONTANA, PROVIDING A CHANCE OF MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION FOR THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY A DRY PERIOD MONDAY. HIGH UNCERTAINTY FOR TUESDAY, BUT DID INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY, AS HPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, PASSING EASTWARD THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, MAY SPREAD PRECIPITATION AS FAR NORTH AS THE OHIO VALLEY. FORECAST TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL THIS PERIOD PER HPC GUIDANCE, WHICH DID NOT VARY MUCH FROM GFS MOS VALUES. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 LOL, I wasn't expecting any significant winter weather this week then I get this alert! URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 241 PM EST WED MAR 9 2011 ...WINTER STORM WATCH... .LINGERING POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL END AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING BY EVENING. OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029- 031-073>076-WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041-100345- /O.NEW.KPBZ.WS.A.0006.110311T0200Z-110312T0200Z/ TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-JEFFERSON OH- MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-MERCER-VENANGO-FOREST- LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG- INDIANA-WASHINGTON-GREENE-WESTMORELAND-WESTMORELAND RIDGES- FAYETTE-FAYETTE RIDGES-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION- MONONGALIA-PRESTON-TUCKER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW PHILADELPHIA...DOVER... UHRICHSVILLE...CARROLLTON...EAST LIVERPOOL...SALEM...COLUMBIANA... EAST PALESTINE...WELLSVILLE...CALCUTTA...COSHOCTON...CADIZ... HOPEDALE...STEUBENVILLE...ZANESVILLE...CAMBRIDGE... MARTINS FERRY...ST. CLAIRSVILLE...BELLAIRE...BARNESVILLE... SHADYSIDE...BRIDGEPORT...CALDWELL...WOODSFIELD...SHARON... HERMITAGE...GROVE CITY...GREENVILLE...FARRELL...OIL CITY... FRANKLIN...SUGARCREEK...TIONESTA...NEW CASTLE...ELLWOOD CITY... BUTLER...ZELIENOPLE...CLARION...PUNXSUTAWNEY...BROOKVILLE... REYNOLDSVILLE...BROCKWAY...ALIQUIPPA...BEAVER FALLS...AMBRIDGE... MONACA...BEAVER...PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...KITTANNING... FORD CITY...LEECHBURG...FREEPORT...APOLLO...INDIANA... WASHINGTON...CANONSBURG...DONORA...CALIFORNIA...CHARLEROI... MONONGAHELA...MCMURRAY...WAYNESBURG...FAIRDALE...GREENSBURG... NEW KENSINGTON...JEANNETTE...LATROBE...MONESSEN...LIGONIER... DONEGAL...NEW FLORENCE...ACME...CHAMPION...UNIONTOWN... CONNELLSVILLE...POINT MARION...NORMALVILLE...FARMINGTON... OHIOPYLE...MARKLEYSBURG...TORONTO...WEIRTON...WHEELING... MOUNDSVILLE...NEW MARTINSVILLE...FAIRMONT...MORGANTOWN... KINGWOOD...TERRA ALTA...PARSONS...DAVIS...THOMAS 241 PM EST WED MAR 9 2011 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...POSSIBLY MORE THAN 6 INCHES. * TIMING...LATE THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY EVENING. * IMPACTS...DIFFICULT TRAVEL, PARTICULARLY FOR THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE WHEN SNOWFALL RATES CAN BE GREATEST. POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES, PARTICULARLY SINCE SNOW DENSITY CAN BE THE HEAVY WET TYPE. * WINDS...WEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...30 TO 35. * VISIBILITIES...NEAR ZERO IN HEAVY SNOW. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF MORE THAN 6 INCHES...THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. REPORT YOUR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1-877-633-6772. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Yeah they just issued a Winter Storm Watch (heavy snow possible). This is insane. I was ready for the warm weather and then it looks like we may get a last hurrah. I don't know what to think lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 LOL, I just got home and saw the nws forecast for thursday nite and friday.It's almost too crazy too be real, but we'll see i guess. Yeah, this caught me off guard too. They have my high at 36 for Friday, but just snow in the forecast as of now. Maybe this will be a heavy wet snow piling up on the grass if it happens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Yeah they just issued a Winter Storm Watch (heavy snow possible). This is insane. I was ready for the warm weather and then it looks like we may get a last hurrah. I don't know what to think lol. Funny how we'll track a storm for days and days thinking we have a shot and eventually it misses us, and then you have one like this that kind of pops up out of nowhere less than 2 days out. Gotta love the unpredictability of this hobby. Even this one can still change in the next day or so, but it seems to look for good us as of now anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Funny how we'll track a storm for days and days thinking we have a shot and eventually it misses us, and then you have one like this that kind of pops up out of nowhere less than 2 days out. Gotta love the unpredictability of this hobby. Even this one can still change in the next day or so, but it seems to look for good us as of now anyway. Something to keep in mind... Temps were forecasted to get warmer than they actually did this past weekend... has been like that too with a couple recent systems too... State College ended up with around 10" snow when they changed over and it is possible enough cold air can dive in to keep temps in low 30s... allowing for some heavy wet snow if indeed cold enough... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Well I looked at the 18Z Nam and the 12Z GFS. Neither looked all that great I don't think. The GFS is further West which means the best snow is over in Ohio and we're seemingly under the dry side of the low. The temps didn't look that cold on either model, but I don't really know if it will snow regardless. If the low ends up further East we would probably be better off. Someone with better analysis skills will have to look at discern how much snow is possible. I think tomorrow the WSW will be dropped to a WWA at least in certain sections. Of course new model runs tomorrow still have to come out and I haven't looked at any aside from the NAM and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Yeah, this caught me off guard too. They have my high at 36 for Friday, but just snow in the forecast as of now. Maybe this will be a heavy wet snow piling up on the grass if it happens? If it falls heavy enough, it won't matter. The roads here Sunday started to get really bad with the temp at 35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 18z GFS also keeps the heaviest snow in eastern Ohio. I think the 12z NAM did it's usual thing again by overdoing this with the QPF initially and it was further east than what the 12z GFS was showing. 18z NAM backed off on the QPF and pushed the precip west closer to what the GFS has been showing. Eastern Ohio is in the best spot right now. We'll see what both 00z runs show later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 It's kinda weird that this secondary low took so long to show up on the models. Also KPIT usually doesn't jump aboard so quick, when there is a sudden change in guidence. Obviously based on their training and experience, they saw enough to post a WSWatch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 I'm not buying this at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Winter....UNcancel! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 I'm not buying this at all. I think the timing of the cold air coming in and the track of the low are going to have to be almost perfect for us to get significant snow out of this one, kind of like last weekend's system. That one tracked perfect for central PA to get hammered while we picked up minor accumulations. Right now, the GFS and NAM seem to want to place the heaviest snow in eastern Ohio for this one. This time, we'd be a little too far east to get the significant snow. We'll see how much more waffling the models do between now and then. I think someone is going to get hammered with this one, but I also think it's going to be a small area that does get hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 The exact details are gonna be muddy through tommorow afternoon. But looking at both the 18z Nam and GFS, the H5 set up still shows potential for a decent event. The base of the trough goes neg. pretty quick, and alot further south than recent storms. At this time the set up is more dynamic than last weekends storm was. Now of couse there is gonna be a screw zone, that's just the way it is. But tracking the potential will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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