meatwad Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Loud as hell this morning, and now I'm ready for spring. We also got a record rainfall today. Record Report 000 SXUS71 KPBZ 282221 RERPIT RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 0520 PM EST MON FEB 28 2011 ...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL SET AT PITTSBURGH PA... A RECORD RAINFALL OF 1.21 INCHES WAS SET AT PITTSBURGH TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE RECORD OF 0.76 SET IN 1984. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Yea I guess I am as well....!! One more 8" snow wouldn't hurt! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digger Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 I got woken up multiple times this morning from thunder. When I had to leave for class it was like a hurrinado outside (that's a hurricane and tornado combined). Pretty ridiculous. Lots of rain today, that's for sure, and it's still falling here. I'm ready for the warmer temps, though. No more snow; I've enjoyed the few 60 degree days so far. Is that avatar a picture of some weather phenomenon, or is it a close-up of an "outty" belly button? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherman5416 Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Lots of reports of accidents and icy roads on the scanner tonight... Be careful if you are traveling tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Had a nice walk yesterday in the sun but that damn air and wind was still cold. I for one hate this month because it is warm one day and cold the next. I am ready for thunderstorms and warm. BTW-Maybe some thunderstorms on Saturday. Could be interesting on Sunday with some wrap around snow after the cold front. 14 degrees this morning. Too cold for March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 0z nam kinda wants to develop something around hrs 72-78. We'll see what starts developing late Sat night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 After Monday I'm good for Severe T'Storms and Tornado Watches. Maybe I'll get a chance to chase a bit. The warm weather is welcome in my neck of the woods. I'm not really a fan of 20F mornings and I have to scrape my car. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digger Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 From this morning's AFD out of the Pittsburgh office: FOR SUNDAY MODEL TIMING OF UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW FORMATIONBRING ANOTHER CHALLENGE WITH CHANGE TO SNOW. HOW FAST THIS OCCURS AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL STILL BE AVAILABLE IS IN DOUBT, BUT HAVE ADDED LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION SUNDAY AS 850MB TEMPERATURES AND 1000-850MB THICKNESS FALL THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TO BEGIN EARLIER IN THE DAY SUNDAY ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF PITTSBURGH AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. Opinions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 From this morning's AFD out of the Pittsburgh office: Opinions? Pretty much what they said. The 12z Nam shows the H5 and H7 in position for precip Sunday night, it's just a matter of cold air, and where it will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted March 4, 2011 Author Share Posted March 4, 2011 From this morning's AFD out of the Pittsburgh office: Opinions? NAM has given us a foot in the last two on hour runs. Basically it is slower than the GFS and develops another wave which tracks very favorably. Even if you cut the QPF in half, it may still be a significant snow. If this slower scenario is legit....and that's a big if based on the GFS....then it's a matter of how quickly the cold air gets here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 As in typical NAM fashion this far out, it's backed off quite a bit with the QPF on the 18z run. I don't know if I trust the NAM anymore outside of 48 hours. It seems to overdo the QPF initially with storms and then back off quite a bit as we get closer. It's just one run, but I've seen this a lot with the NAM lately over 2 days out. I tend to lean toward the GFS in that timeframe because it seems like the NAM eventually sways toward what the GFS is showing. That's just my opinion after watching how the two models have handled storms this past winter. The NAM has been very good inside 48 hours it seems. It nailed our storm a week and a half ago when we were a day or two out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted March 5, 2011 Author Share Posted March 5, 2011 Starting to think just north could get hammered, which puts us in a "better watch this" area. Wish we could blend the GFS timing with the cold air with the NAM's QPf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Both 12z GFS and Nam have us between 4 and 5 inches of snow tomorrow. Such a fine line whether we get 1 or 5. Temperatures will be key. Things will change but we are barely 24 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 WHo knows....it seems this year that we have changed over a lot faster than expected a couple times, and gone from a 1-2 forecast the day before to 4-8 inches or so....lots of overperfomers. Will be interesting. Also will be interesting to see if KPIT at least mentions it in text forecasts after the last debacle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherman5416 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 WHo knows....it seems this year that we have changed over a lot faster than expected a couple times, and gone from a 1-2 forecast the day before to 4-8 inches or so....lots of overperfomers. Will be interesting. Also will be interesting to see if KPIT at least mentions it in text forecasts after the last debacle. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1235 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2011 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE PLAINS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SNOW DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH SOME ACCUMULATION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF LATE MORNING...RAIN HAS SPREAD ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE FORECAST REGION. LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND TIMING WITH HEAVIEST RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. STILL 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED WITH STREAMS AND CREEKS LIKELY TO HAVE SOME FLOODING WITH AREAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINING IN PLACE. SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR INFORMATION ON AREA RIVERS. QUITE MILD TODAY ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AS SURFACE LOW MOVES TO SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH AND WILL HOLD COLD WEST OF REGION UNTIL DAYBREAK. HOWEVER...12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE HINTED THAT COLDER AIR MAY APPROACH MORE QUICKLY. THIS WILL BE CONSIDERED DURING THE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT EAST SUNDAY MORNING WITH RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS REGION AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION BUILDS IN BEHIND THE LOW. GFS AND ECMWF GIVE SOME ACCUMULATION AND FORECAST IS FOR 1-3 INCHES NORTH OF I-80 CORRIDOR AND AROUND AN INCH ELSEWHERE. NAM MODEL AN OUTLIER WITH A VERY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF REGION AS IT HAS A SLOWER SOLUTION WITH DEEP MOISTURE REMAINING IN COLD AIR ACROSS REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. USED A COMPROMISE FOR SNOWFALL BUT THIS SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY. SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DIMINISH IN THE RIDGES AFTER EVENING WITH A LIGHT ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. COLD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1235 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2011 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE PLAINS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SNOW DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH SOME ACCUMULATION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF LATE MORNING...RAIN HAS SPREAD ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE FORECAST REGION. LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND TIMING WITH HEAVIEST RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. STILL 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED WITH STREAMS AND CREEKS LIKELY TO HAVE SOME FLOODING WITH AREAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINING IN PLACE. SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR INFORMATION ON AREA RIVERS. QUITE MILD TODAY ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AS SURFACE LOW MOVES TO SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH AND WILL HOLD COLD WEST OF REGION UNTIL DAYBREAK. HOWEVER...12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE HINTED THAT COLDER AIR MAY APPROACH MORE QUICKLY. THIS WILL BE CONSIDERED DURING THE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT EAST SUNDAY MORNING WITH RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS REGION AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION BUILDS IN BEHIND THE LOW. GFS AND ECMWF GIVE SOME ACCUMULATION AND FORECAST IS FOR 1-3 INCHES NORTH OF I-80 CORRIDOR AND AROUND AN INCH ELSEWHERE. NAM MODEL AN OUTLIER WITH A VERY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF REGION AS IT HAS A SLOWER SOLUTION WITH DEEP MOISTURE REMAINING IN COLD AIR ACROSS REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. USED A COMPROMISE FOR SNOWFALL BUT THIS SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY. SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DIMINISH IN THE RIDGES AFTER EVENING WITH A LIGHT ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. COLD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. If I remember, NAM really locked in on 6-8 inches us in about this time frame for the last storm.... Will be interesting what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 18znam pretty good hit. .6 qpf or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 NWS Pit now coming out with new forecast 2-4 inches of snow Sunday for Greater Pit. 6+ inches areas from Mercer over to Indiana and North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 NWS Pit now coming out with new forecast 2-4 inches of snow Sunday for Greater Pit. 6+ inches areas from Mercer over to Indiana and North. I think they want to bust high this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Nam gives us in northern agc near ten inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherman5416 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --SEVERAL FORECAST ISSUES IN PLAY...INCLUDING RAINFALL TOTALS...TEMPERATURE TRENDS...AND RESULTING SNOWFALL. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED. AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO DROP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. MODEL PROFILES ARE INDICATING THAT THERE COULD BE A BRIEF 1-3 HOUR PERIOD AT MOST LOCATIONS WHERE PRECIPITATION COULD BRIEFLY CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET BEFORE FINALLY CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING QUICKER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR...MEANING THAT MORE OF THE PRECIPITATION COULD END UP FALLING AS SNOW INSTEAD OF RAIN. SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS VIRGINIA COULD PROVIDE A REINFORCING SHOT OF MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY MORNING. THINK THAT THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BURST OF HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY MORNING. WITH ACCUMULATIONS AROUND THE SIX INCH MARK...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE COUNTIES ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR. WILL ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO HAVE A CHANCE TO FURTHER REFINE TEMPERATURE TRENDS...SINCE THIS WILL BE CRUCIAL FOR DETERMINING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. OUTSIDE OF THE WATCH AREA...EXPECT A GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCH SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IF LATER MODEL RUNS BRING COLD AIR IN MORE QUICKLY...OR IF THE SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT IS STRONGER...SNOWFALL TOTALS COULD INCREASE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. EXPECT LITTLE...IF ANY RISE IN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 If they say 1-3 there, why do they have a 2-4 forecast out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 If they say 1-3 there, why do they have a 2-4 forecast out? They just changed my forecast from 2 to 4 down to 1 to 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 How can you guys tell sfc temps on the NAM...the 00z to me looks much colder, but that is at 500...not sure how to read that. BTW, still looks REALLY close to a decent hit, but we are SOO close on the fringe. 50 miles west might see 2 inches. 50 miles east could see a foot...any further east could be rain. My call is 2-4 for AGC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 My GUESS is that the NAM shows half an inch at least of all snow..in the city... WHat I can't tell is the exact time of change over...I think I can see, as I said, about .5 inches....but I think either .1 to .2 nore could be snow... Really tough forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 The 00z run of the wild and wacky NAM has AGC getting about 3-5 it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 The 00z run of the wild and wacky NAM has AGC getting about 3-5 it looks like. Cold air is racing across Ohio. I was just out and it is 50 and feels good. NWS and all local mets had rain changing to snow after 12 tomorrow. I think there will be a lot of surprised people when they get out of church tomorrow and we will have sleet and snow earlier than expected. People going to sleep right now haven't seen any advisories. I don't know if one is needed but if the GFS is similar to the Nam we should at least have WWA posted overnight for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Just looking at the Bufkit text data, 00z NAM has over 6 inches for KPIT, 18z GFS had about half that. Will be interesting to see what the 00z GFS shows. If its close to the NAM that would probably be advisory level snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digger Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Just looking at some temps across Ohio. Columbus went fron 52 at 6:51 p.m. to 39 an hour later. Newark is now at 37, while Zanesville is still at 52. Looked at some pavement temps on the Buckeye Traffic site, and surface temps in the west are now in the lower 30s generally, while subsurface temps are higher, 40s or so. In the east, surface temps are in the 50s, and subsurface temps are also in the 40s, generally speaking. (Boy I sure do miss the RWIS site that PennDOT used to have with that information.) My sense of this one is that whatever we get on the grass tomorrow, we'll only get half that on pavement, but it's going to be heavy as hell again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 GFS looks a bit colder...I would still say about 3-5...I think that an advisory would be a good precaution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.