blackngoldrules Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I know it may be early, but check out the storm coming Thursday night, into Friday. Looks like the 12Z NAM has come into agreement with the GFS. They both have a storm come just south of the mason dixon line. Here is the QPF from the NAM. (looks to me to be all snow) <img src="http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_p36_084l.gif" /> It looks to me like it may end up being a very similar storm to this one if that pans out. We may start off as rain, change to a mix and then eventually snow. The freezing line starts off north of Pittsburgh at the onset of the precip at hour 66, then it shows the freezing line going through the Pittsburgh area at hour 72, and then eventually it drops well south as the storm passes to our south at hour 78. So, that one could be a lot like this one if the NAM and GFS runs verify. Still a lot of time to go on that one yet, like you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plumres Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I ended up with 9 inches in Plum, PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I just did some shoveling, It's a heavy wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 12z GFS may keep us mostly snow for the next one if that verifies. It seems to drop the cold air south a little quicker than the 06z run. Once again, it just depends on how quickly the cold air can move south as that storm approaches. Of course, the track of the low will be important too. This will be another interesting storm to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Bust out the shades today, it's bright out there. Also that late Feb sun is helping on the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I had multiple friends get stuck on the roads which is just crazy to think about. They had to abandon their cars and find other means home. Did anyone here get stuck? Did PennDot not work yesterday because of the holiday? I guess the sudden and unexpected output of the storm caught everyone off guard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Some snow reports -- 8.5" in Mahoning County; 8" in Columbiana, 7" in Lawrence, 5" in Mercer and 4" north to 6" south in Trumbull County (though YNG airport only reported 2.1" for some reason). http://www.myvalleyw...hdnCjU3ceg.cspx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Bust out the shades today, it's bright out there. Also that late Feb sun is helping on the roads. Yeah, I just brushed my car off this morning, then let the sun do the rest. No scraping! It is starting to cloud up here in greensburg right now though. I ended up with between 7-8 inches. Hard to get a good measurement as we had some minor drifting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I don't know if everyone saw this up on the NWS website. One storm where it didn't pay to be above I-80 except for Mercer County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I don't know if everyone saw this up on the NWS website. One storm where it didn't pay to be above I-80 except for Mercer County. However, I don't think that includes the first wave, where many of those areas saw 8 + inches. I know that at least towards bradford they did. Amazing though...this had been a completely forgettable winter, but with a storm last night like that, even though it was 8 inches, it made the whole winter for me. The snow rates were just insane. There were points when I literally had about an eighth of a mile vis, and I have never seen a synoptic snowfall where it snowed that hard...snow squalls, yes, artic fronts, yes, but never like that in banding, even with Feb5-6 last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Looking ahead to the late week storm, the 18z GFS seems to still have us mostly snow with a pretty impressive QPF. 18z NAM is mostly rain with possible flooding between the heavy rain and snow melt if that one verifies. NWS seems to be leaning toward the NAM solution right now. Rain is in their forecast for most of that period. I haven't had a chance to check out the other models yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherman5416 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Looking ahead to the late week storm, the 18z GFS seems to still have us mostly snow with a pretty impressive QPF. 18z NAM is mostly rain with possible flooding between the heavy rain and snow melt if that one verifies. NWS seems to be leaning toward the NAM solution right now. Rain is in their forecast for most of that period. I haven't had a chance to check out the other models yet. The GFS is the outlier,most other models agree with or our slightly NW of the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heathaze Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Huge temperature swing earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 However, I don't think that includes the first wave, where many of those areas saw 8 + inches. I know that at least towards bradford they did. Amazing though...this had been a completely forgettable winter, but with a storm last night like that, even though it was 8 inches, it made the whole winter for me. The snow rates were just insane. There were points when I literally had about an eighth of a mile vis, and I have never seen a synoptic snowfall where it snowed that hard...snow squalls, yes, artic fronts, yes, but never like that in banding, even with Feb5-6 last year. Great storm....but... ....not in the same league as March '93 or Jan '94 for snowfall rates. We did have consistent 1" to 2" per hour rates....maybe briefly higher....but the totals would have reflect it if we were hammering out 3" per hour for any length of time March '93 had several hours of 3"+ per hour....and....there was 1/16 of a mile visibility for 8 hours in a row! Jan 1994 had 4 "and 5" per hour rates in spots. Of course, I guess I'm getting old, and maybe not everyone remembers those --> to me they were pretty recent - lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 I had multiple friends get stuck on the roads which is just crazy to think about. They had to abandon their cars and find other means home. Did anyone here get stuck? Did PennDot not work yesterday because of the holiday? I guess the sudden and unexpected output of the storm caught everyone off guard. In 10 years, when people say "President's Day storm", I bet some people in this area think of this first despite far, far less snow than 2003 The impact was severe due to not only getting more snow than thought, but getting high snowfall rates during rush hour. I had coworkers that had 3 and 4 hour commutes. I know others that had to get hotels where they were. Abandoning cars was a common story (although I'm not sure that would be the greatest idea, especially considering the storm was fast moving) 8" to 9" dumped in about 7 "commonly traveled" hours is crippling.......albeit very temporary.....but crippling nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Great storm....but... ....not in the same league as March '93 or Jan '94 for snowfall rates. We did have consistent 1" to 2" per hour rates....maybe briefly higher....but the totals would have reflect it if we were hammering out 3" per hour for any length of time March '93 had several hours of 3"+ per hour....and....there was 1/16 of a mile visibility for 8 hours in a row! Jan 1994 had 4 "and 5" per hour rates in spots. Of course, I guess I'm getting old, and maybe not everyone remembers those --> to me they were pretty recent - lol Well, I guess I'm getting old too, because I remember those storms like they happened yesterday. I've mentioned this many times already, but the Jan. 94 storm is still my all time favorite snowstorm. Most of it occurred during the day and the snow came down heavy for a lot of it where I lived. 27 inches in about a 14 hour period for me. That one was memorable both in terms of intensity and length. And you get to enjoy a storm more when most of it falls during the daylight hours. Two weeks later we had record cold hit the area so that was quite a winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Great storm....but... ....not in the same league as March '93 or Jan '94 for snowfall rates. We did have consistent 1" to 2" per hour rates....maybe briefly higher....but the totals would have reflect it if we were hammering out 3" per hour for any length of time March '93 had several hours of 3"+ per hour....and....there was 1/16 of a mile visibility for 8 hours in a row! Jan 1994 had 4 "and 5" per hour rates in spots. Of course, I guess I'm getting old, and maybe not everyone remembers those --> to me they were pretty recent - lol Well, I guess I'm getting old too, because I remember those storms like they happened yesterday. I've mentioned this many times already, but the Jan. 94 storm is still my all time favorite snowstorm. Most of it occurred during the day and the snow came down heavy for a lot of it where I lived. 27 inches in about a 14 hour period for me. That one was memorable both in terms of intensity and length. And you get to enjoy a storm more when most of it falls during the daylight hours. Two weeks later we had record cold hit the area so that was quite a winter! Jan 94 had am rush hour stopped dead in its tracks. I think that was one of the all-time great storm for impacts in Pittsburgh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 Well, I guess I'm getting old too, because I remember those storms like they happened yesterday. I've mentioned this many times already, but the Jan. 94 storm is still my all time favorite snowstorm. Most of it occurred during the day and the snow came down heavy for a lot of it where I lived. 27 inches in about a 14 hour period for me. That one was memorable both in terms of intensity and length. And you get to enjoy a storm more when most of it falls during the daylight hours. Two weeks later we had record cold hit the area so that was quite a winter! Am i being greedy if I say that I'd like a big daytime snowstorm?? Most of our recent significant snows have been at night. I think it's AWESOME to wake up pre-dawn and see snow rippin' outside and have it come into better view as it gets light out. Dec '92, March '93. Jan '94 , Jan '96, Feb '03 ALL unfolded that way. I know...I know.....its like saying "I hope we see the Steelers wear black in the next SB because we've worn white the last 3 times" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I saw this image on another site, not sure if it means much though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I saw this image on another site, not sure if it means much though. Ensembles....given the fact that the GFS ensembles are usually south of the Op...at least that is what I reacall, it is a major red flag that it is right in line with the op model...I doubt we don't see rain from this one, though who knows, after yesterday anything could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 Ensembles....given the fact that the GFS ensembles are usually south of the Op...at least that is what I reacall, it is a major red flag that it is right in line with the op model...I doubt we don't see rain from this one, though who knows, after yesterday anything could happen. I *think* those ensembles are a form of "Monte Carlo" analysis where they adjust the initial state of the model based on the fact that the initial measurements are dynamic and subject to error. So what happens is that the known bias of the model may show in a big way in at least one or several of the members when it is run under different conditions. When you take the mean of all the members, the outliers will throw it towards the bias, even if it didn't manifest itself in the operational. I think that is why it tends to be SE of the op. If those individual members have wide spreads, then it is probably bad news since there are likely SE outliers throwing it off. This would be a good indication the op will eventually be further NW. However, if they are in pretty good agreement, then they may be close to the eventual track. Of course the model could be wrong.....and even more likely, I am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherman5416 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Quick question, how are the secondary roads tonight? I wondering if you guys think that there may be some school delays tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 0z Nam is a tad south. A little colder. Rain to snow scenario possible Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Looking at how things may shape up, whether it's rain or snow, I would use tommorow's warmer temps to get as much snow off of any roof or awning you can reach. One way or another, the stuff that fell yesterday is gonna get really heavy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digger Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I just did some shoveling, It's a heavy wet snow. Besides plowing, I have 8,500 sq feet (give or take), of sidewalk to shovel. Tell me about it... I don't know what the exact total was here, but when I left last night, I measured 8" on my picnic table. There might've been a little more come on top of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digger Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Boy, they sure busted low on the temps overnight. PIT and AGC both reporting overcast all night must've helped keep it from cooling off too much... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 0z Nam is a tad south. A little colder. Rain to snow scenario possible Friday. 6z GFS looks to have warmed more in line with the NAM. I am thinking this is likely going to be mainly rain event with maybe some back end snow showers of little consequence. The "good" GFS solutions were SE outliers in terms of the other models Track overall isn't terrible but there is not much cold air for the storm to work with it seems. If the system in the Northern stream could be faster / stronger it would help to knock down heights and let the system travel further SE but not sure if that can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 6z GFS looks to have warmed more in line with the NAM. I am thinking this is likely going to be mainly rain event with maybe some back end snow showers of little consequence. The "good" GFS solutions were SE outliers in terms of the other models Track overall isn't terrible but there is not much cold air for the storm to work with it seems. If the system in the Northern stream could be faster / stronger it would help to knock down heights and let the system travel further SE but not sure if that can happen. Yes, so far as of now the precip will mostly be gone when the cold moves in. More in line with usual storms around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Flood Watch FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1120 AM EST WED FEB 23 2011 ...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN PENNSYLVANIA... MONONGAHELA RIVER NEAR CHARLEROI AFFECTING FAYETTE...WASHINGTON AND WESTMORELAND COUNTIES MONONGAHELA RIVER NEAR ELIZABETH AFFECTING ALLEGHENY...WASHINGTON AND WESTMORELAND COUNTIES YOUGHIOGHENY RIVER AT CONNELLSVILLE AFFECTING FAYETTE COUNTY . A STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SURGE OF MILDER AIR...RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SOME SNOW TO THE REGION BEGINNING THURSDAY AND EXTENDING INTO FRIDAY. THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THE RAINFALL OF 0.75 TO 1.50 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION WILL ACCELERATE THE MELTING OF THE SNOW COVER ACROSS THE REGION THAT WILL COMBINE WITH THE OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RESULTING IN RAPID RISES ON DISTRICT RIVERS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... SAFETY MESSAGE...A WATCH MEANS THAT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE BUT NOT A CERTAINTY. RAINFALL OF 0.75 INCHES TO 1.50 MAY CAUSE FLOODING. ACTUAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND POTENTIAL FLOODING WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE DIRECTION AND SPEED OF THE STORM. PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON THE WEATHER AND BE PREPARED FOR IMMEDIATE ACTION SHOULD HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING OCCUR OR A RIVER FLOOD WARNING BE ISSUED. && PAC003-125-129-241620- /O.NEW.KPBZ.FL.A.0002.110226T0300Z-110226T2100Z/ /ELZP1.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ 1120 AM EST WED FEB 23 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A * FLOOD WATCH FOR THE MONONGAHELA RIVER NEAR ELIZABETH * FROM FRIDAY EVENING TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. * AT 10:00 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.7 FEET. * MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. * FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET. * FORECAST...FLOOD STAGE MAY BE REACHED BY FRIDAY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. $$ Flood Watch FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1029 AM EST WED FEB 23 2011 MDZ001-OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ013-014-020>023-029- 031-073>076-WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041-232330- /O.NEW.KPBZ.FA.A.0001.110224T1800Z-110225T1200Z/ /00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ GARRETT-TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON- JEFFERSON OH-MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-LAWRENCE- BUTLER-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WASHINGTON-GREENE- WESTMORELAND-WESTMORELAND RIDGES-FAYETTE-FAYETTE RIDGES-HANCOCK- BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-MONONGALIA-PRESTON-TUCKER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OAKLAND MD...GRANTSVILLE... NEW PHILADELPHIA...DOVER...UHRICHSVILLE...CARROLLTON... EAST LIVERPOOL...SALEM...COLUMBIANA...EAST PALESTINE... WELLSVILLE...CALCUTTA...COSHOCTON...CADIZ...HOPEDALE... STEUBENVILLE...ZANESVILLE...CAMBRIDGE...MARTINS FERRY... ST. CLAIRSVILLE...BELLAIRE...BARNESVILLE...SHADYSIDE... BRIDGEPORT...CALDWELL...WOODSFIELD...NEW CASTLE...ELLWOOD CITY... BUTLER...ZELIENOPLE...ALIQUIPPA...BEAVER FALLS...AMBRIDGE... MONACA...BEAVER...PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...KITTANNING... FORD CITY...LEECHBURG...FREEPORT...APOLLO...INDIANA... WASHINGTON...CANONSBURG...DONORA...CALIFORNIA...CHARLEROI... MONONGAHELA...MCMURRAY...WAYNESBURG...FAIRDALE...GREENSBURG... NEW KENSINGTON...JEANNETTE...LATROBE...MONESSEN...LIGONIER... DONEGAL...NEW FLORENCE...ACME...CHAMPION...UNIONTOWN... CONNELLSVILLE...POINT MARION...NORMALVILLE...FARMINGTON... OHIOPYLE...MARKLEYSBURG...TORONTO...WEIRTON...WHEELING... MOUNDSVILLE...NEW MARTINSVILLE...FAIRMONT...MORGANTOWN... KINGWOOD...TERRA ALTA...PARSONS...DAVIS...THOMAS 1029 AM EST WED FEB 23 2011 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A * FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN MARYLAND...EAST CENTRAL OHIO...PENNSYLVANIA AND WEST VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN WESTERN MARYLAND...GARRETT. IN EAST CENTRAL OHIO...BELMONT...CARROLL...COLUMBIANA...COSHOCTON... GUERNSEY...HARRISON...JEFFERSON OH...MONROE...MUSKINGUM... NOBLE AND TUSCARAWAS. IN PENNSYLVANIA...ALLEGHENY... ARMSTRONG...BEAVER...BUTLER...FAYETTE...FAYETTE RIDGES... GREENE...INDIANA...LAWRENCE...WASHINGTON...WESTMORELAND AND WESTMORELAND RIDGES. IN WEST VIRGINIA...BROOKE...HANCOCK... MARION...MARSHALL...MONONGALIA...OHIO...PRESTON...TUCKER AND WETZEL. * FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING * EXPECT RAINFALL OF ONE TO ONE AND ONE HALF INCHES WITH AN ADDITIONAL ONE HALF INCH OF SNOW MELT IN SOME AREAS. * POSSIBLE FLOODING OF STREAMS AND CREEKS AS WELL AS LOW LYING AREAS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Remember last year how concerned we all were about flooding issues after the monster snowstorm hit us? And remember how we lucked out and didn't have any major problems as the snow gradually melted instead of all at once? Well, I guess we have something to be at least a little concerned about after this storm. Thankfully, it's only 6 or 7 inches melting and not 20 like it would have been last year. Things could still get interesting along the rivers in a day or two. We could see the Mon Wharf close Friday if we end up getting the forecasted rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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