beavis1729 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 ...especially considering it's Feb. 2!!! This morning, the low temp hit 1F (34 degrees below normal)...this absolutely destorys the previous Feb. 3 record low of 16F, set in 1982. Just incredible... AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM 250 AM MST THU FEB 3 2011 .SYNOPSIS... RECORD BREAKING COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. EL PASO SET NEW RECORD LOWS BOTH YESTERDAY AND THIS MORNING. YESTERDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURE IN EL PASO WAS THE COLDEST HIGH FOR ANY DAY EVER IN OVER 120 YEARS OF RECORD KEEPING. THE HIGH WAS ONLY 17 DEGREES. THE REGION WILL STAY WELL BELOW FREEZING AGAIN TODAY AND ALMOST 40 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR MORE SNOW IS OVER AND SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION AS THE UPPER STORM DEPARTS. TONIGHT WILL BE DANGEROUSLY COLD AGAIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flexo Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 The Richey overpass on 225 has some ice. Reports of some people spinning out. Something is reaching the ground.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 Pro-met Jeff suspects he might be a little generous on his totals, over at the local KHOU forum, but he is letting the 1-3" with 4 inch or better lollipops ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 15Z short ensemble means not quite epic, but if we got about 2 inches of snow, I'd be satisfied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 15Z short ensemble means not quite epic, but if we got about 2 inches of snow, I'd be satisfied. I will dance in the streets and take videos if I get 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gil888 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 <clip> Any idea how often you get the kind of accumulating snow they are getting in Chihuahua Mexico today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 Oh please... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 At this point it's just about time to let go of the models and let real time obs take over instead of obsessively worrying about a few inches. Starting to see some returns down near Matagorda which seems to be lining up nicely with the timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southland Wx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 UP reported at GLS now...also hearing some reports of sleet from around the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 From Jeff: Additional email from Jeff 2pm Getting numerous reports of sleet now over SE Harris County and light snow in Pasadena and this is shifting slowly NW. Should be crossing over the freezing line shortly. One report of accumulation on rooftops in the Clear Lake area. Really watching the enhancement on radar over Wharton and Fort Bend Counties as this is heading for central Harris and may produce onset of sleet/snow over more of Harris and Fort Bend counties prior to 400pm…I have had no reports from this area yet, so best bet is most of this is not reaching the ground, but dbz is increasing in this area to near 15 with threshold being 20dbz in the sleet areas.<BR clear=all> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I will dance in the streets and take videos if I get 2". Quoted for future reference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 From Nesdis... SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 02/03/11 1943Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678 LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13: 1932Z VOGT . LOCATION...ALABAMA...MISSISSIPPI...LOUISIANA...TEXAS... . ATTN WFOS...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... ATTN WFOS...HGX...CRP...EWX... ATTN RFCS...SERFC...LMRFC...WGRFC... . EVENT...WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP STARTING TO IMPACT THE GULF STATES . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS MAIN UL VORT/IMPULSE LOCATED NEAR 26N/107W WITH AN ELONGATED TROF AXIS STRETCHING FROM SW TX UP THROUGH KS AND EAST THROUGH PA/NJ. THERE ARE SEVERAL SUBTLE S/WV IMPULSES WORKING THEIR WAY ALONG THE UL JET WHICH RESIDES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE TROF AXIS... ATTM THERE IS A 140 KT JET MAX RUNNING FROM AR NE TOWARDS NJ. BLENDED TPW INDICATES THAT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO BUT IS TRENDING NORTH WITH GOOD MID-TO-UL WINDS DIRECTED TO THE NORTH. PWATS OVER LAND DIFFER FROM 0.9" JUST ALONG THE GULF COASTLINE NORTH TO 0.5" ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF LA/MS/AL/GA. . 19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE WINTRY PRECIP IS BEGINNING TO OVERCOME THE FAIRLY DRY AIR AT THE SFC WITH REPORTS OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER SE LA/S AND C MS WITH RAIN FURTHER TO THE EAST IN GA. BECAUSE SFC TEMPS ARE HOVERING AROUND 0C, EXPECT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET TO INCREASE FROM SE TO NW AS THE MAIN UL VORT SWINGS AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF AND AS BETTER MOISTURE WORKS ITS WAY NORTH. SNOW WILL LIKELY BE INCREASING MOSTLY OVER SE COASTLINE OF TX AS WELL. THE 850 0C LINE CURRENTLY RUNS MOSTLY SW-TO=NE ACROSS C LA/C MS/NW AL. . AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 2000-2300Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...EXPECT LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE TO START INCREASING FROM SE TO NW THIS AFTERNOON AS MAIN UL VORT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF AND HELPS INCREASE UVV'S/MOISTURE INCREASES... ALSO SHOULD EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT SNOW OVER THE SE COASTLINE OF TX FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 2-3 HRS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 Going all NY/PHL styling here and showing one of the few models that actually gives the outcome I want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 i'll take the hrrr and be happy. A&M just canceled class for friday morning. shouts of joy across campus. went out and took a few "before" pics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Any idea how often you get the kind of accumulating snow they are getting in Chihuahua Mexico today? Probably once every 5-6 years... what's uncommon is the single digit temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 A post on S2K by a red tagger saying dry air moving in means a bust has some local posters depressed. Now, the NAM, GFS and Euro has had me semi-unoptimistic for over a day now, but this close, too late to pack it in now. And the RUC 700 mb RH forecast isn't looking too bad... http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/ruc/hr3/index_700_m_loop.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 A post on S2K by a red tagger saying dry air moving in means a bust has some local posters depressed. Now, the NAM, GFS and Euro has had me semi-unoptimistic for over a day now, but this close, too late to pack it in now. And the RUC 700 mb RH forecast isn't looking too bad... http://www.nco.ncep....00_m_loop.shtml Which 'red tagger?' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 Which 'red tagger?' AF Met, I believe. This is hearsay, mind you. Someone on the local board said he said it was a bust. I didn't read the post on S2K. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TXWXCHX Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 AF Met, I believe. This is hearsay, mind you. Someone on the local board said he said it was a bust. I didn't read the post on S2K. A little pop-up storm just gifted us with ice pellets here right now... so there must be enough mid-level moisture to create them... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 AF Met, I believe. This is hearsay, mind you. Someone on the local board said he said it was a bust. I didn't read the post on S2K. Yep. Not very encouraging for those hoping to see some decent accumulations. Still early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sarwx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 The 18z GFS shows almost nothing at all now... uugggghhh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I thought earlier that there were some promising signs starting to take shape down Matagorda way. Nada now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Precip being so far east was a sign... Too much dry air to overcome. And with the ULL, while there is a period where forcing gets better, the best snow with ULLs is typically under them or jus north of the track. We won't be in that favorable region. It's not a bust yet... Any precip can cause big travel issues, but too much going against great accumulations it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Just uploaded fresh new model output from Texas to Georgia. SmartModel having a tough time adjusting. A good scenario to improve my model. still picking up the FZRA up in N. MS and GA. http://smartwxmodel.net Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 E-mail from Jeff: 8pm Numerous reports now of freezing rain and sleet to our SW, numerous highway being closed from icing across S TX. Radar is really starting to light up and clearly moisture advection off the Gulf if in progress. Freezing rain now noted as far NE as Port Aransas. Expect things to rapidly begin to develop as strong lift is approaching the area from the W and SW.<BR clear=all> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Corpus - 915 PM...Freezing drizzle has now been reported in every county across the Coastal Bend, and just reached Victoria and Port Lavaca in the past hour. Road surfaces are slick and hazardous over most of the region. Light snow is falling in Laredo. We expect the freezing drizzle to continue through midnight with a gradual transition to sleet and snow after midnight. Still looks like total sleet and snow accumulations of 1-2" west of highway 77. Up to 1/2" of snow is possible in Laredo. Ice accumulations of around 1/8" are likely before the transition to sleet and snow. Numerous vehicle accidents are being reported along the coastal bend. All major highway systems in Corpus Christi have been shut down. Travel is highly discouraged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TXWXCHX Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Light snow 60M east of Waco, just started... coming down at a moderate pace, small flakes with winds gusting to 10-15MPH. Ski Texas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 Local 2 showed tiny snow grains at a location near the Galleria, by the headlight of their remote vehicle. Not impressive. Kinda hoping for some FRDZ, better excuse to go in late to work than half an inch or so of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 Lots of freezing drizzle reports locally. NAM forecast soundings, a clue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 SNOW!!! accumulating on the sidewalks now after a period of misting precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.