Sarwx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Pretty picture! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 A smallish area of flurries on my way to the office this morning ... not at my home nor at the office (though, the area was around 1 mile from the latter, in one of the lowest points in the city --around the Santa Catarina river--) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 Sadly, the NAM forecast sounding for 12Z at CRP is actually wetter than the actual sounding. CRP is almost saturated to surface, however. Hopefully it doesn't effect what the NAM is predicting, which would be pretty disappointing to begin with. Dr. Jeff sticking to his guns, and he is a trained expert, so I'm not giving up hope of a Jebwalk tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Sprinklers weren't deactivated .... 25F @ home this morning. Dripping faucet @ the office Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 You old IP. Congrats, Jorge. Hopefully I'll have some pics tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadozfire Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I am in Galveston, Texas and currently there is no precipitation. The schools here just announced closing today at 2pm and will be closed tomorrow. I am hoping that the powers that be let us off work before it gets bad and that those of us from the mainland can make it home safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 You old IP. Congrats, Jorge. Hopefully I'll have some pics tomorrow. Nice snow burst in Chipinque National Park (15 mins from here) @ 3000ft... Moderate snow falling...I just need surface to saturate enough to reach the valley. Downtown reporting their first flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 Ciudad Juarez mayor Hector Murgia said the temperatures of around minus 13 degrees centigrade (8.6 Fahrenheit) were the lowest recorded in almost 50 years. Part of the Yahoo story about Mexico sending electricity our way to minimize the rolling blackouts. http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20110202/ts_alt_afp/mexicousweatherstorm_20110202234748 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 The low tire pressure because its cold, or do you have a real issue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 The low tire pressure because its cold, or do you have a real issue? Because it's cold... they are used to 70F. After 15min it turned off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Stray flakes here and there @ the office now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 I am ever more nervous about a flurries/dusting type bust. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 1031 AM CST THU FEB 3 2011 .DISCUSSION... ACARS SOUNDINGS FOR KIAH/KHOU SUGGEST SNOW OR SLEET AS THE PRECIP TYPE FOR THE HOUSTON AREA WITH A COUPLE OF SMALL WARM LAYERS SHOWING UP. WE ALSO RECEIVED A RAOB FOR CLL WHICH SHOWS THE ENTIRE PROFILE BELOW -4C CLEARLY SHOWING SNOW AS THE TYPE. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IT WILL TAKE A LONG TIME FOR SATURATION TO OCCUR...WITH VERY LITTLE PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND TODAY AND ONLY LIGHT PRECIP THIS EVENING. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE ACCUMULATIONS CURRENTLY FORECAST LOOK GOOD AND COULD BE A BIT GENEROUS. HOWEVER...THE ONE THING DIFFERENTIATING THIS EVENT COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH LOWER AND ELEVATED ROADWAYS ARE ALREADY BELOW FREEZING. EVEN IF ONLY SMALL ACCUMULATIONS OCCUR...THE ROADS ARE VERY LIKELY TO BECOME ICY AND HAZARDOUS ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP THE WARNING IN TACT. FOR FIRST PERIOD...HAVE KEPT POPS ON THE LOW SIDE AND ALSO RAISED MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. 35/41/33/46/DH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I am ever more nervous about a flurries/dusting type bust. Same here to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Same here to be honest. Modeling has been drying out... time to ride the 0z UKie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 The NAM has been consistently killing the buzz, but the 9Z SREFs keep some hope alive... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 12z CMC drier the first 12 hours, and slightly wetter the next 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sarwx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Many of the Houston schools are letting out early now... Noon-ish. Many also already canceled for tomorrow already. With one notable exception being the Houston ISD... so far anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 Many of the Houston schools are letting out early now... Noon-ish. Many also already canceled for tomorrow already. With one notable exception being the Houston ISD... so far anyway. I'd think even in Houston, as long as there was no freezing precip, less than an inch over a 12 hour period really wouldn't zoo up traffic that badly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sarwx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I'd think even in Houston, as long as there was no freezing precip, less than an inch over a 12 hour period really wouldn't zoo up traffic that badly. I would disagree there... we have no good ways to get the snow (or ice) off the roads. And this is cold enough to keep things frozen nicely... so I actually think even a little could be quite a mess. Plus, folks here have NO clue how to drive on any kind of frozen precip... it could be a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 It's the Valley. And that's cold for the Valley... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Earlier disco from BRO - 934 AM CST THU FEB 3 2011 .UPDATE...STARTING TO GET A FEW REPORTS OF VERY LIGHT PRECIP FREEZING TO VEHICLES AND EXPOSED METAL SURFACES. TEMP AT KBRO HAS DROPPED 2 DEGREES IN THE PAST HOUR...WITH /UP/ BEING REPORTED AT KBRO AND KHRL IN THE PAST HOUR. TEMPS WILL HOVER AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING WITH -ZR/-IP CONTINUING. AS MOISTURE JUST OFF THE SFC CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE INLAND...PRECIP WILL BEGIN FOR AREAS WEST OF US 77. MAIN CONCERN IS THE WARM POCKET ALOFT...HOW FAR INLAND THE WARM POCKET MOVES...AND HOW THICK IS THE SUBFREEZING SFC LAYER. MODELS STILL INDICATE THE ROUGH TRANSITION LINE WILL BE THE KENEDY/BROOKS BORDER SOUTH TO AROUND WESLACO. AREAS WEST OF THERE WILL SEE MAINLY SNOW...-IP EAST OF THAT LINE TO US 77...AND -ZR EAST OF US 77 TO THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE LITTLE OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES CHANGE VERY LITTLE IN THE UPPER 20S. BEST DYNAMICS ALOFT MOVE IN OVERNIGHT...GIVING INCREASED PRECIP INTENSITY. TOTAL ACCUMULATION OF UNDER 1/2 INCH EXPECTED...WITH ICE ACCUMULATION UNDER 1/4 INCH. AREAS IN BROOKS AND NORTHERN HIDALGO COUNTIES MAY SEE ENOUGH SNOW FOR A TOTAL OF AN INCH ACCUMULATION. AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS TOMORROW MORNING...PRECIP WILL END MID MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Seeing Winter Storm Warnings all the way to TX/MX border is nothing short of impressive. I second sarwx's assessment, like many locations in the Deep South and along the coast, there's simply just not enough snow/ice removal crews as it is just so rare to have winter weather events, that even a slight amount of ice just generally causes massive problems. Unlike a slew of previous winter weather events to occur in that region with cold air being on the marginal cusp, this one, the cold air in place is clearly not going to be an issue and much colder. Accumulations that do occur will last a bit longer than the normal event which is probably will not be gone by the next day situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Stray flurries...kind of lame, but significant for Monterrey (taken outside the office) In Chipinque, things look better, though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Stray flurries...kind of lame, but significant for Monterrey (taken outside the office) In Chipinque, things look better, though Cool How rare is that for those parts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Cool How rare is that for those parts? Dec 2004 something similar...Dec 1997 had some slight accumulations...and some events like those, almost with little to no accumulation (other than Jan 1967 and Feb 1894 which were huge)...Yesterday was my first <32F day of the season (talking about lows, not averages)... today is just the second event that had some precipitation involved to put it in perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cvgram Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 HISD has cancelled all after school activities today and cancelled classes tomorrow. There has been sleet reported at Uvalde and Woodforest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Thought I'd mention this again for the Houston crew as things continue to evolve... Direct link for icy roads and closures - http://traffic.houstontranstar.org/roadclosures/roadclosures.aspx?show=IOR Cams - http://traffic.houstontranstar.org/cctv/transtar/ Main - http://www.houstontranstar.org/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 I would disagree there... we have no good ways to get the snow (or ice) off the roads. And this is cold enough to keep things frozen nicely... so I actually think even a little could be quite a mess. Plus, folks here have NO clue how to drive on any kind of frozen precip... it could be a mess. I'd be ok, I was stationed in Upstate New York Winter 84-85, and drove in snow. I doubt an inch over 12 hours would even stay on the pavement. Its the other people I'd worry about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 Euro verbatim is dismal around Houston, at/under a tenth liquid, but gets better going North towards CXO, CLL and JAS (JAS would have some p-type issues, verbatim), such that a small shift in the Euro solution, maybe a meso band a little further Soouth than projected, could still bring joy and happiness to Houston metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Not looking great to get these 1-3" amounts in houston area... Still a bit early, but trends certainly not in the good direction right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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