Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,605
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Houston Area (+ AUS, SAT and MMMY) Snow Miracle Thread


Ed Lizard

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 222
  • Created
  • Last Reply

:popcorn:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX

907 PM CST WED FEB 2 2011

...FROZEN PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...

.VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR FROM CANADA IS NOW IN PLACE ACROSS ALL OF

DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THIS AIR WILL COMBINE

WITH MODERATE WINDS FROM THE NORTH TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS WIND CHILL

VALUES FROM NOW THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING. ALSO...THE APPROACH

OF A DISTURBANCE IN THE MIDDLE LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM THE

WEST...COMBINED WITH THE FORMATION OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT

THE SURFACE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST...WILL PRODUCE SOME FROZEN

PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN...

MAINLY FROM THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF THURSDAY THROUGH THE MORNING

HOURS OF FRIDAY.

TXZ248-249-252-031115-

/O.NEW.KBRO.WS.W.0001.110203T1800Z-110204T1800Z/

/O.EXT.KBRO.WC.W.0002.000000T0000Z-110204T1800Z/

ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-STARR-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ZAPATA...HEBBRONVILLE...

RIO GRANDE CITY...ROMA

907 PM CST WED FEB 2 2011

...WIND CHILL WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY...

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY TO NOON CST

FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER

STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN

EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY TO NOON CST FRIDAY FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH

TEXAS. THE WIND CHILL WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST

FRIDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE MIDDLE LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL

GRADUALLY MOVE FROM THE TEXAS BIG BEND TO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF

THE LONE STAR STATE FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

THE APPROACH OF THIS DISTURBANCE...COMBINED WITH THE FORMATION OF

A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST...

WILL PRODUCE FROZEN PRECIPITATION ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE

RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN.

SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING AROUND NOON

THURSDAY EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR THAT RUNS FROM MCALLEN

TO FALFURRIAS. WEST OF THIS CORRIDOR...SNOW AND SLEET ARE LIKELY.

THE FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL INTENSIFY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO

FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN CONTINUING

EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR...AND SNOW AND SLEET WEST OF THE

CORRIDOR. UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE

POSSIBLE EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR...WITH UP TO A HALF

INCH POSSIBLE WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR.

ALSO...MODERATE WINDS FROM THE NORTH WILL COMBINE WITH COLD ARCTIC

AIR ALREADY IN PLACE TO PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES BETWEEN 5 AND 15

DEGREES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND BETWEEN 15 AND 25 DEGREES

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

RESIDENTS OF SOUTH TEXAS SHOULD PREPARE NOW FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL

CONDITIONS LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Absolute retards on local KHOU thread don't care to hear latest NAM and GFS, and God bless them, I hope they are right and models are wrong.

As I expected, the mentally ill one, Bigger Byte, I'm not the only one getting psychotic PMs from him. Steve won't ban him, and now has a solid weenie forum. A single pro-met, and one sixty hour Miss State green screen certificate holding bachlor of arts wonder who gets a pro-met tag post there. Cory used to post there, but I suspect the tards chased him off.

Whatever, a blizzard for Houston tomorrow, screw the models.

Nobody wants snow more than me, but what a forum of losers.

I'll say it here since I can't there

You're an absolute ****ing joke

And I mean that in the sincerest way possible :)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

HGX is waiting till the overnight/0z data before upgrading to a warning which isn't that big of a deal with all the info already out there.

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/rightframe.php?satellite=east&channel=ir4&coverage=conus&file=gif&imgoranim=8&anim_method=flash

Useful link for the Houston crew if things do pan out for both traffic and cams - http://traffic.houstontranstar.org/layers/

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Got a little update from Ed. All 0z models just show flurries. Sublimation

They should probably go ahead and cancel the advisories.

Oh, T.

Why the different nicks for different forums.

I use the same nic on 15 forums, people can Google me where ever, but at least it isn't being a puss.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Got a little update from Ed. All 0z models just show flurries. Sublimation

They should probably go ahead and cancel the advisories.

Oy vey. Sublimation... That one doesn't come up to often.

Seems like everything is still right on track. Fluid enough situation and it won't take much for conditions to deteriorate quite rapidly tomorrow. To this point the NWS offices are handling it well.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Got a little update from Ed. All 0z models just show flurries. Sublimation

They should probably go ahead and cancel the advisories.

Mr. T-

I'm no pro-met, no business rep on the line.

I want 4 inches of snow. Just pointing out 0Z models to out so far are rather depressing...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Mr. T-

I'm no pro-met, no business rep on the line.

I want 4 inches of snow. Just pointing out 0Z models to out so far are rather depressing...

4 inches? No wonder you sound disappointed. You are setting your standard a tad high. Me? I'd like just an inch and still worry it won't happen where I'm at.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 inches? No wonder you sound disappointed. You are setting your standard a tad high. Me? I'd like just an inch and still worry it won't happen where I'm at.

Better than the flizzard and virga snow I've seen the past few years...a sight you will not see everyday...

SPC:

...WESTERN GULF COAST...

LOW PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALSO APPEAR TO EXIST ACROSS

PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS AND UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS INTO LOUISIANA

LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY...WHEN MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES

APPEAR LIKELY TO STEEPEN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE CLOSED LOW.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK

CAPE...BASED WITHIN A SATURATED ENVIRONMENT NEAR OR ABOVE 700

MB...WITHIN THE MIXED PHASE LAYER FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF

CHARGE SEPARATION...AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

post-32-0-69135900-1296732050.png

post-32-0-80689700-1296733382.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Pretty in pink

post-91-0-96452800-1296732115.png

442 AM CST THU FEB 3 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS FROM NOON CST

THURSDAY TO NOON CST FRIDAY...

.AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL

COMBINE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE

LOWER ATMOSPHERE TO GENERATE A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING

RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY

MORNING.

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-031845-

/O.UPG.KHGX.WS.A.0001.110203T1800Z-110204T1800Z/

/O.NEW.KHGX.WS.W.0001.110203T1800Z-110204T1800Z/

AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-

GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-

MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-

WHARTON-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...

BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...BRYAN...CALDWELL...CLEVELAND...

COLDSPRING...COLLEGE STATION...COLUMBUS...CONROE...CORRIGAN...

CROCKETT...DAYTON...EAGLE LAKE...EDNA...EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...

FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON...GROVETON...HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...

HUMBLE...HUNTSVILLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...LAKE SOMERVILLE...

LEAGUE CITY...LIBERTY...LIVINGSTON...MADISONVILLE...

MISSOURI CITY...MONT BELVIEU...NAVASOTA...ONALASKA...PALACIOS...

PASADENA...PEARLAND...PIERCE...PRAIRIE VIEW...RICHMOND...

ROSENBERG...SEALY...SHEPHERD...SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...

THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...TRINITY...WEIMAR...WHARTON...WILLIS...

WINNIE

442 AM CST THU FEB 3 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON CST

FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH

IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON CST FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM

WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL

COMBINE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE

LOWER ATMOSPHERE TO GENERATE A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING

RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY

MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DURING THE EARLY

AFTERNOON NEAR THE COAST...AND SPREAD AREA WIDE BY EVENING. THE

WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT THEN TAPER OFF LATE

MORNING FRIDAY.

PRECIPITATION TYPE: VERY LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET IS EXPECTED AT THE

ONSET OF THE EVENT THURSDAY ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW IS

EXPECTED TO THE WEST OF A LINE FROM MATAGORDA TO DOWNTOWN HOUSTON

TO NORTHERN LIBERTY COUNTY...WITH ALL SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST

HALF OF THE AREA. EAST OF THIS LINE...FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED

TO MIX IN WITH THE SLEET AND SNOW MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. OVER

SOUTHERN BRAZORIA... SOUTHERN GALVESTON...CHAMBERS...AND SOUTHERN

LIBERTY COUNTIES MOSTLY ICE IS EXPECTED. AFTER MIDNIGHT THESE

AREAS MAY HAVE A SLEET AND SNOW MIX. FREEZING RAIN MIXED WITH

SLEET AND SNOW MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF CHAMBERS COUNTY

AND SOUTHERN MOST GALVESTON COUNTY INCLUDING GALVESTON ISLAND.

PRECIPITATION MAY CONTINUE TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW AFTER 6AM

FRIDAY EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE SLEET MAY MIX WITH

THE SNOW. PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END NEAR OR SHORTLY

AFTER NOON FRIDAY.

AMOUNTS: IN THE SNOW AND SLEET AREA...ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO

3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED TOTALS AROUND 4 INCHES. THE

BEST CHANCE OF 4 INCH ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE PINEY

WOODS AND LAKES AREA OF EAST TEXAS. IN THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT

AREA...ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH ARE EXPECTED.

IMPACTS: DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN THE VERY DRY AIRMASS...

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5 TO 7 DEGREES COLDER WITH THIS EVENT THAN

DURING THE LAST FEW WINTER WEATHER EVENTS TO IMPACT THIS AREA.

THESE COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN A MUCH HIGHER LIKELIHOOD

OF ROADS BECOMING ICED OVER...EVEN WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION

AMOUNTS. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE WITH ELEVATED SURFACES

LIKE BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. ROAD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO

DETERIORATE BEGINNING AROUND SUNSET THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...POWER

OUTAGES WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT

AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ROADS...BRIDGES...AND OVERPASSES IN THE WATCH AREA MAY BECOME

SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. ACCUMULATION OF SNOW OR ICE ON ROADWAYS...

BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES MAY MAKE TRAVEL TREACHEROUS. EXERCISE

CAUTION IF TRAVEL IS NECESSARY. IN ADDITION...POWER OUTAGES WILL

BE POSSIBLE.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

:popcorn:

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0614 AM CST THU FEB 03 2011

VALID 031300Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

AN EXPANSIVE UPPER TROUGH IS IN PLACE THIS MORNING OVER THE

CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES...WITH COLD AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS

EVERYWHERE BUT FL. A SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SLOWLY

SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN FL PENINSULA...AND IS PROVIDING A

FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS SUGGEST THIS

THREAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY

DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON.

FARTHER WEST...INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING AND LOW LEVEL WARM

ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN AN EXPANDING AREA OF PRECIPITATION THIS

AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. MODEL

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS VERY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY /CENTERED AROUND

600MB/ WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST TX/SOUTHWEST LA. THIS AREA MAY

SEE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE MOST ORGANIZED SHOWERS TONIGHT.

..HART/GRAMS.. 02/03/2011

post-32-0-08956500-1296739199.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It is amazingly cold in NM. -36 at ANGEL FIRE, -14 at TUCUMCARI and -12 at Santa Fe. Even 6 at ELP. No one is really talking about this. I don't think I've ever seen it that cold there.

www.centraltexaszoomradar.com

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Jeff is sticking to his guns...

***Winter Storm Warning issued for all of SE TX, coastal bend, S TX, and SW LA***

Historic winter storm event within 8-12 hours of starting.

Do not think we will get the entire evening rush hour in before the event starts.

I will begin hourly updates starting at 100pm this afternoon.

Discussion:

Powerful upper level low continues to dig into northern Mexico this morning with increasing moisture clearly noted on radar and satellite images. Starting to get a few returns on the radar images this morning, but very dry sub-cloud layer is evaporating prior to the precip. reaching the ground..this process will continue for the morning before the low levels saturate and then the main show begins. Looks at the forecast soundings this morning, still believe the best course of action is to go with more sleet and snow than ice and will go ahead and bump snowfall totals up a tad across the entire area to fit with more snow than sleet/freezing rain.

Timing:

Starting to see some light sleet over Galveston Island in the last hour and echoes on the radar are increasing along the US 59 corridor and down around Corpus Christi. So far only GLS has reported anything reaching the ground as that low level air mass is very dry. Expect to see the radar echoes intensify this morning and saturate the low levels first on the coast and then spreading inland. It is very hard to determine how long it will take to bring the low levels to saturation, but once that point is reached precip. will reach the ground. Will go with onset of precip. reaching the ground 1-2pm along the coast and 300-400pm along US 59 including metro Houston and then all regions by 600pm. Road conditions will deteriorate very quickly once precip onsets with road temperatures at or below freezing both on bridges/overpasses and on surface streets.

Accumulations:

Will hit the entire area with 1-3 inches this includes the coastal bend, all of SE TX and into SW LA. Feel along and about 40-50 miles NW of US 59 is where the greatest totals will be with isolated amounts upwards of 4-5 inches possible. The only location where some freezing rain may fall is right along the coast from Freeport to Galveston Island and then inland toward southern Liberty County…will go with ice accumulations of .1-.25 of an inch in this region and then an inch of snow on top of the ice. Models continue to advertise convective nature to the event supporting the threat of meso bands with heavy snow. SPC has in fact placed a large part of the area under a thunderstorm risk for tonight supporting the threat for some convective events within the overall snow shield.

It is likely that everyone will see some accumulation, but where the biggest totals will be is nearly impossible to predict under the event is underway.

Temperatures:

Expect temperatures to hover at or below freezing all day and then in the mid to upper 20’s tonight and below freezing all day on Friday. May see a few locations rise to near 32-35 for an hour Friday afternoon if skies clear, but a rapid fall Friday night under clearings skies and light winds…with snow cover will result in lows back into the low 20’s for nearly all areas.

Travel:

Extremely dangerous travel conditions will be developing across the entire region and by early evening surface travel will be difficult. Travel on Friday will be nearly impossible and all residents are being urged to drive only if it is an emergency. Do not expect roads to recover until maybe sometime on Saturday afternoon. Ground crews will attempt to keep sanding operations ongoing, but given the size of this event will quickly be overwhelmed

Aviation:

It is going to get bad at the airports and suspect ground operations will not be able to keep the airports open. Continental has already cancelled all operations starting at 300pm today until noon Friday. Aircraft that depart will require extensive de-icing operations and snow removal operations for runways. Suspect at some point likely tonight that these operations will be suspended due to the storm intensity.

Power:

ERCOT has ordered another round of rotating blackouts from 600-800am this morning to conserve power on the TX grid. With more of a threat of snow/sleet feel that most power infrastructure will be OK during this event, except near the coast and Galveston bay where freezing rain may be possible with some ice accumulations.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...