tmagan Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 12Z RGEM still gung-ho about the Friday snow threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 12Z RGEM still gung-ho about the Friday snow threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 What a stupid place for the Canadians to put their legend box. Well, better than over Canada, I guess, if you're Canadian... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 12Z RGEM Total Snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 12Z RGEM Total Snow Houston being hidden and all, but it would seem to imply a fairly sharp boundary near us, based on, I assume, p-types. I also assume it is intialized like the Canadian Global, which has been the wettest model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Cross over forum wars... Presently it sounds like the 59 corridor (Victoria/Cleveland) is getting the most love for a decent event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Cross over forum wars... Presently it sounds like the 59 corridor (Victoria/Cleveland) is getting the most love for a decent event. Don't you love it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Don't you love it... To many creepy pm's from one disturbed individual at the local. Just a casual check in from time to time for me. This event will be more about the prolonged cold then the snow unless it starts earlier or we have more of a serious ice event then currently being shown. Rolling blackouts are fairly widespread already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 To many creepy pm's from one disturbed individual at the local. Just a casual check in from time to time for me. This event will be more about the prolonged cold then the snow unless it starts earlier or we have more of a serious ice event then currently being shown. Rolling blackouts are fairly widespread already. Meh. I understand. Corpus suggesting WSW as of the 10:00AM Update... WILL BE LOOKING THROUGH THE LATEST 12Z MODEL DATA BUT LIKELIHOOD FOR WINTER STORM WATCH IS GOING UP FOR WINTRY MIX AND CONCERN FOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. A BIT DISCONCERTING IN LIGHT OF THE FACT THE MODELS HAVE DONE SO POORLY WITH CURRENT CLOUD DECK OVER REGION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Don't think I've ever seen anything like this for South Padre Island... Ocean effect snow/sleet: http://www.weather.g...story/KSPL.html ? I could see it being possible with the direction of the winds allowing for a long enough fetch to pick up some of that juicy gulf moisture, but it could also be an error. Incredible event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Meh. I understand. Corpus suggesting WSW as of the 10:00AM Update... WILL BE LOOKING THROUGH THE LATEST 12Z MODEL DATA BUT LIKELIHOOD FOR WINTER STORM WATCH IS GOING UP FOR WINTRY MIX AND CONCERN FOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. A BIT DISCONCERTING IN LIGHT OF THE FACT THE MODELS HAVE DONE SO POORLY WITH CURRENT CLOUD DECK OVER REGION. It's all good. I'm easy to find. Internet cowardice is prevalent. HGX mentioned the same earlier. Have to think they pull the trigger fairly soon to start getting the news out with the lunchtime or early evening news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Today's Euro freebie is 12hrs accumulated precip...From 0z First 3 shades of blue are 0.5-2, 2-4 and 4-10 ... I suppose they are mm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 GFS isn't much wetter than the NAM. Top of the saturated layer is colder, but still doesn't look like optimal for crystal growth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flexo Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Don't think I've ever seen anything like this for South Padre Island... Ocean effect snow/sleet: http://www.weather.g...story/KSPL.html ? I could see it being possible with the direction of the winds allowing for a long enough fetch to pick up some of that juicy gulf moisture, but it could also be an error. There was no precip around that area this morning. It's an error Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sarwx Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 GFS Ensemble mean is spitting out just over 0.50" QPF... SREF mean also looking like 0.50" total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 It's all good. I'm easy to find. Internet cowardice is prevalent. HGX mentioned the same earlier. Have to think they pull the trigger fairly soon to start getting the news out with the lunchtime or early evening news. Yep. The chatter is ramping up from a buddy at NWS HGX, so I'd expect some verbage shortly with the morning update, which is running late. I need to head down S to the Purple Cow soon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Snow already fell in elevated terrain near the mountains SE of MTY. I'm thinking there will be an usplope event from the warm sector of the Sierra Madre, hopefully it doesn't becomes too dry and some precip can spread to the valley on our side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 Just saw a glimpse of the first Canadian product on the happy local forum that Steve runs with an iron fist (j/k) but its hard to read. Apparently happy, however. Waiting for the easier on the eyes 4 panel Canadian from the PSU e-Wall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Just saw a glimpse of the first Canadian product on the happy local forum that Steve runs with an iron fist (j/k) but its hard to read. Apparently happy, however. Waiting for the easier on the eyes 4 panel Canadian from the PSU e-Wall... Drier overall, but the HOU area wasn't affected as much. Expected, given that it was the wettest outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 HGX pulled the trigger on a WSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 It appears a WSW is coming. EWX and BRO suggesting this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 1124 AM CST WED FEB 2 2011 ...WINTER STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR ALL OF SE TX... .DISCUSSION... COLD AIRMASS SETTLING INTO SE TX THIS MORNING WITH A 1045 MB HIGH BUILDING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIRD OF THE AREA. DESPITE THE CLEARING...TEMPS HAVE WARMED VERY LITTLE SO FAR THIS MORNING...STILL RUNNING IN THE LOW/MID 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA. THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF SE TX WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW FREEZING ALL AFTN...WITH TEMPS ONLY RISING ABOVE FREEZING FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS OVER THE SOUTH. AS A RESULT...HAVE RECONFIGURED THE HARD FREEZE WARNING TO JUST CONTINUE FROM NOW THROUGH NOON ON THURSDAY. DUE TO INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ALL OF THE CWA FROM 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. TWO PRIMARY CHANGES HAVE BEEN NOTED IN THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS. THE MODELS ARE TRENDING FASTER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW...NOW SHOWING THE ONSET OF PRECIP ON THURSDAY AFTN. THE SECOND CHANGE IS A WARM LAYER ALOFT THAT IS PRESENT IN THE RECENT MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WHICH SUGGESTS A THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN OVER THE SE THIRD OF THE AREA. CURRENT THINKING IS AN ALL SNOW EVENT FOR THE NW HALF OF THE CWA...WITH A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. WE ARE PLACING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN FROM MATAGORDA TO DOWNTOWN HOUSTON TO RYE IN LIBERTY COUNTY. FOR THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF BRAZORIA COUNTY...THROUGH GALVESTON... CHAMBERS...AND LIBERTY COUNTIES THIS IS LOOKING LIKE PRIMARILY AN ICE EVENT AS THE WARM LAYER ALOFT INTENSIFIES WITH TIME. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK PLENTY SUFFICIENT TO SATISFY OUR CRITERIA FOR WINTER HEADLINES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ICE THREAT AREA WHERE PWS WILL BE AROUND AN INCH. HAVE CHOSEN TO START THE WATCH AT NOON ON THURSDAY SINCE MODELS SHOW THE ONSET OF PRECIP THU AFTN AND UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON WHETHER TEMPS WILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING THU AFTN. THE ONE THING THAT WILL DIFFERENTIATE THIS EVENT WITH THE WINTRY PRECIP EVENTS WE SAW LAST YEAR IS THE HIGHER THREAT OF ICING DEVELOPING ON THE ROADWAYS. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE NOW IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...SO EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL EASILY RESULT IN A TEMPERATURE DROP AT THE SFC WHEN THE PRECIP BEINGS. SFC TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN THE EVENTS LAST YEAR...SO EVEN IF QPF TOTALS ARE LIGHT THE ROADWAYS WILL LIKELY BECOME ICY AND HAZARDOUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 As mentioned earlier it appears the idea that the event starting a bit sooner was reason enough to go ahead and start issuing a watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 Drier overall, but the HOU area wasn't affected as much. Expected, given that it was the wettest outlier. Not overly wet on the PSU e-Wall. I think I can get total precip from the AccuWx PPV model, but AccuWx still has the 0Z run up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Not overly wet on the PSU e-Wall. I think I can get total precip from the AccuWx PPV model, but AccuWx still has the 0Z run up. Yep, the faster trough is probably affecting totals. The GGEM has been the wettest, but also the warmest in the HOU area. Funny that my area is close to -10C 850mb temps in the GGEM, with HOU barely grasping at 0C, usually it's the other way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Don't think I've ever seen anything like this for South Padre Island... Ocean effect snow/sleet: http://www.weather.g...story/KSPL.html ? I could see it being possible with the direction of the winds allowing for a long enough fetch to pick up some of that juicy gulf moisture, but it could also be an error. Gulf Coast norlun? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sarwx Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 New 12z Euro putting down about 0.45" total QPF... looks to be primarily snow. Also a bit faster, as has been the trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 New 12z Euro putting down about 0.45" total QPF... looks to be primarily snow. Also a bit faster, as has been the trend. Oh, like it...it's the coarser resolution, I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 0.33 at IAH, .20 coming in the glorious six hours ending at midnight tomorrow night. Looks like snow just going surface temps and 850s, but 850s are not mondo cold, and I wonder about the temp profile. Well over an hour before I can order up a skew-T from my AccuWx PPV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gil888 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 snow all the way along the lower and upper Texas coasts? If the EC is right, 3 inches for Houston. Continuing northeastward into NW Louisiana as well. Big ice storm over Louisiana and Mississippi. What a winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.