Ed Lizard Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Ths feels like being in one of the other area code sized sub-forums. The letter from Jeff, yowza! 0Z NAM just started... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 here we go. looks like 1-2 is the current forecast here. my goal right now is to get enough to cover the grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Ths feels like being in one of the other area code sized sub-forums. The letter from Jeff, yowza! 0Z NAM just started... I was wondering where you were on this. Surprised it took you this long to jump on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSoxFan Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 My brother in law lives in Houston, and apparently "according to him" some people down there are already freaking out about this... it definitely doesn't take much of any type of winter weather to mess up the roads down there and cause plenty of carnage on the highways. Very cool to see snow as far south as the Gulf Coast... this Winter has definitely affected 90-95% of the country... the Houston metro looks to be next! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 Not much love through 6 pm Thursday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 NAM was playing hard to get, but I think its giving in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 With the number of elevated freeways/overpasses here, any wintry precip we get will be a nightmare for driving. With the extended period of cold leading up to this wx event, it looks like ALL the roads will be tricky once the frozen stuff starts falling. Does anyone know if HOU is bringing in any sand/salt trucks for this? Public safety demands a 3 day weekend. Just a coincidence Sunday is our greatest secular holiday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 Marginal for cancelling school Friday. Couple more days to shift that darker green 30 or 50 miles further West, not worried about liquid precip, but fairly warm temps, even if sub-freezing, in the saturated layer... Not staying up for the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Is it really a miracle if it happens three winters in a row lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Is it really a miracle if it happens three winters in a row lol? Haha fair point, though this setup looks to potentially be the best of the three. Looks like the coldest opening 10 days of Feb for Texas in a long time, even eclipsing Feb 1989. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I agree Brian. I've been looking at some photos I need to scan from the late 40's of my Mom and then me playing in the 2-12-60 event. And 73 was fun as well. I missed the 04 event while living in the Keys. Interesting pattern that looks good for delivering. Brownsville to Corpus to Houston and inland. Crazy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TXWXCHX Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Snowzilla!! I'm ready!! Light flurries here already, coming from a clear sky?? Odd... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Al Gore will not be amused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 PSU e-Wall really needs an Hour 84 frame, but Euro looks ballpark 2 inches... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 06Z RGEM goes gangbusters for snow over Texas Thursday into Friday, but it overdoes upsloping events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 For fun, here is the 06Z RGEM total snow through hour 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 Guesstimating looking at Canadian Global, it goes over to rain in Houston, San Antonio-San Marcos-Austin metro college/shopping Division 1 Bowl Subdivision (in 2012) I-35 corridor looks like big winner. 3 six hour intervals of snow between 0.1 and 0.25 inches liquid equivalent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cory Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 My family is ~60 miles west of San Antonio and it's looking like they won't even see a flurry out of it. My daughter is 10 years old and has never seen snow; it would be nice for her to see a flake or two at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Model are too warm, folks. I'd be very cautious in regards to sensible weather across the area. Oh, and it's a balmy 18.2F this AM under thickening clouds. Coldest I've seen since 89. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 537 AM CST WED FEB 2 2011 TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-021445- HOUSTON-TRINITY-MADISON-WALKER-SAN JACINTO-POLK-BURLESON-BRAZOS- WASHINGTON-GRIMES-MONTGOMERY-LIBERTY-COLORADO-AUSTIN-WALLER- HARRIS-CHAMBERS-WHARTON-FORT BEND-JACKSON-MATAGORDA-BRAZORIA- GALVESTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROCKETT...TRINITY...GROVETON... MADISONVILLE...HUNTSVILLE...SHEPHERD...COLDSPRING...LIVINGSTON... CORRIGAN...ONALASKA...CALDWELL...LAKE SOMERVILLE... COLLEGE STATION...BRYAN...BRENHAM...NAVASOTA...THE WOODLANDS... CONROE...WILLIS...LIBERTY...CLEVELAND...DAYTON...COLUMBUS... EAGLE LAKE...WEIMAR...SEALY...BELLVILLE...HEMPSTEAD... PRAIRIE VIEW...BROOKSHIRE...HOUSTON...PASADENA...KATY...TOMBALL... HUMBLE...WINNIE...MONT BELVIEU...ANAHUAC...EL CAMPO...WHARTON... PIERCE...SUGAR LAND...MISSOURI CITY...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG... EDNA...BAY CITY...PALACIOS...PEARLAND...LAKE JACKSON...ALVIN... ANGLETON...FREEPORT...LEAGUE CITY...TEXAS CITY...FRIENDSWOOD... GALVESTON 537 AM CST WED FEB 2 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY... WITH THE COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS...WINTER WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL SUPPORT GULF MOISTURE LIFTING OVER THE COLD AIRMASS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. BANDS OF PRECIPITATION COULD DEVELOP AND GIVEN THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE PROFILES...SNOW WILL MOST LIKELY FALL ALTHOUGH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS AFFECTED BY ACCUMULATING WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE FROM VICTORIA TO HOUSTON TO CLEVELAND. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES BUT COULD BE LESS IF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN DEVELOP. ICE ACCUMULATIONS COULD POTENTIALLY BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH. THESE FROZEN PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO AREA ROADS AND MAKING TRAVEL DANGEROUS. KEEP IN MIND THAT THE EXACT LOCATION...PRECIPITATION TYPE...AND ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE DISTURBANCE...TEMPERATURES...AND MOISTURE LEVELS. METEOROLOGISTS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION AND UPDATE THE FORECAST AS NEEDED. RESIDENTS SHOULD CLOSELY TO MONITOR THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS ON THIS UPCOMING WINTER WEATHER EVENT. A WINTER WEATHER WATCH MAY BE ISSUED TOMORROW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoustonHurricane Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Don't think I've ever seen anything like this for South Padre Island... Ocean effect snow/sleet: http://www.weather.g...story/KSPL.html ? I could see it being possible with the direction of the winds allowing for a long enough fetch to pick up some of that juicy gulf moisture, but it could also be an error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Power outages reported from Austin to Houston this morning. Ugh... Officials: Statewide rolling power outages ordered to conserve energyby khou.com staff khou.com Posted on February 2, 2011 at 7:06 AM Updated today at 7:11 AM HOUSTON—The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) has instructed utilities to begin rotating outages to compensate for a generation shortage due to numerous plant trips that occurred because of the extreme weather. Rotating outages are controlled, temporary interruptions of electric service, typically lasting 10-45 minutes per neighborhood. The locations and durations are determined by the local utilities. Critical need customers such as hospitals and nursing homes are generally not included. It is not known at this time how long the need for rotating outages will last. Consumers and businesses are urged to reduce their electricity use to the lowest level possible, including these steps: Limit electricity usage to only that consumption which is absolutely necessary. Turn off all unnecessary lights, appliances, and electronic equipment. Businesses should minimize the use of electric lighting and electricity-consuming equipment as much as possible. Large consumers of electricity should consider shutting down or reducing non-essential production processes.<BR clear=all> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 Run isn't over, but NAM not showing much love West of US 59... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 Almost an inch by 6 am Friday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fred Gossage Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Marginal for cancelling school Friday. Couple more days to shift that darker green 30 or 50 miles further West, not worried about liquid precip, but fairly warm temps, even if sub-freezing, in the saturated layer... Not staying up for the GFS. I'd be very weary of forecast soundings that look like the one you posted. That entire sounding might be sub-freezing... but that dendritic growth zone, from -10 to around -16 deg C, is pretty dry. That could lead to more of a freezing rain/drizzle situation, since I doubt slantwise convection can lift moisture up into that layer. Can't get snow if the ice crystals can't form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Don't think I've ever seen anything like this for South Padre Island... Ocean effect snow/sleet: http://www.weather.g...story/KSPL.html ? I could see it being possible with the direction of the winds allowing for a long enough fetch to pick up some of that juicy gulf moisture, but it could also be an error. Probably the arctic front moving through lifting up the warm air, and wringing out any moisture available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 I'd be very weary of forecast soundings that look like the one you posted. That entire sounding might be sub-freezing... but that dendritic growth zone, from -10 to around -16 deg C, is pretty dry. That could lead to more of a freezing rain/drizzle situation, since I doubt slantwise convection can lift moisture up into that layer. Can't get snow if the ice crystals can't form. Thats why I noted that. All sub-freezing, but not very cold. New 12Z NAM is similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fred Gossage Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Messy, messy looking travel, Ed.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 Messy, messy looking travel, Ed.... The NAM has been dry locally, under .15 inches in immediate Houston area, some freezing/frozen precip has a better chance of triggering a 3 day weekend than just over an inch of snow, so maybe that isn't all bad. People hating me on the local forum for saying the NAM is dry. Haters gonna hate. The Euro and Canadian have had more QPF, but they aren't available at 9 am local... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 lol, No one is hating anybody, Ed. Give me a break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 Marginal for cancelling school Friday. Couple more days to shift that darker green 30 or 50 miles further West, not worried about liquid precip, but fairly warm temps, even if sub-freezing, in the saturated layer... Not staying up for the GFS. Someone on the local forum just suggested I learned everything I know about guessing p-type from Fred Gossage. As if I would note that the saturated layer was fairly warm just on a lark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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