burgertime Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Not only that, but it also would imply a very close call to an accumulating snow in parts of the FL Panhandle as well as the Gulf coast of AL/MS! This very far south track is, of course, very rare. So, this model run is very much a FWIW, especially since we're talking about the JMA and it is 7-8 days out. I'm not for one minute buying this but rather treating it as entertainment and is just another reminder to watch out for the possibility of wintry precip, possibly major,. during 12/7-8 in parts of the SE US. Yep, wouldn't that just be something if it turned out like the JMA had it? Pensacola would be shut down with traffic accidents lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Not only that, but it also would imply a very close call to an accumulating snow in parts of the FL Panhandle as well as the Gulf coast of AL/MS! This very far south track is, of course, very rare. So, this model run is very much a FWIW, especially since we're talking about the JMA and it is 7-8 days out. I'm not for one minute buying this but rather treating it as entertainment and is just another reminder to watch out for the possibility of wintry precip, possibly major,. during 12/7-8 in parts of the SE US. I'm not buying it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 I'm not buying it. Good decision, Brick. However, I'm not selling it completely either as crazy, rare, historic wintry events in the deep SE sometimes accompany or follow strong blocking peaks (example: see last winter). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 guys its gonna come back north. no way its this suppressed the first week of December. I would almost bet were begging for it to stop coming north when we get within 5 days. same old song and dance carried over from last winter. this is just how the models handle extreme blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Yep, wouldn't that just be something if it turned out like the JMA had it? Pensacola would be shut down with traffic accidents lol. I LIKE that Does anyone have a link that shows the snow for P'cola on the JMA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frederick Weather Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Question for some of you METS. Regaurding the storm being pushed south, how often does a vortex live up to it's predicted strength? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Euro ensembles have enough spread to make me have a sliver of hope, but given the time of year and the preponderance of the evidence, I am leaning against a storm right now, but will reserve final judgment for at least several more days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 does anyone remember the storm last year that buried eastern NC/SC? both the GFS and EURO had the storm plowing into Cuba up until 2 days before it arrived. The retrograded low in Maine will not stick around that long. I dont see this as much of a viable solution. The only thing that makes it plausible is the lack of a southern branch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Which event was it from the previous winter where models were showing the major suppression that involved a strong vortex sitting up north (think it was off the Canadian Maritimes or the NE coast), and could anyone here recollect what occurred at that point? It sounds to me like what had happened there could repeat for this possible scenario. I remember reading and hearing discussions about it quite a bit when we were on Easternwx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Which event was it from the previous winter where models were showing the major suppression that involved a strong vortex sitting up north (think it was off the Canadian Maritimes or the NE coast), and could anyone here recollect what occurred at that point? It sounds to me like what had happened there could repeat for this possible scenario. I remember reading and hearing discussions about it quite a bit when we were on Easternwx. i believe this occured in a few storms last year involving DC snow events. The vortex on days 4-7 appeared to suppress the storms only to have them ride up the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 eh-maybe it will come back in the medium range-or maybe not. I won't be surprised either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 I LIKE that Does anyone have a link that shows the snow for P'cola on the JMA? lol well I'm not sure of how SFC temps would be but I would guess it would be pretty close. I don't think I can post the maps I'm using. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 i think the euro ensemble mean had precip form the second storm dc southward didnt it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 lol well I'm not sure of how SFC temps would be but I would guess it would be pretty close. I don't think I can post the maps I'm using. Lol, thanks. Even a SMALL chance isstill a chance down here and I'll take it. I guess those of us in the SE will take any chance this La Nina winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Question for some of you METS. Regaurding the storm being pushed south, how often does a vortex live up to it's predicted strength? Thanks! Glad to see you made it over. I look forward to your obs. as events start moving into Ala. Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Just what I need ... a snowstorm to follow when I should be studying for final exams! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frederick Weather Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Glad to see you made it over. I look forward to your obs. as events start moving into Ala. Tony Thanks, Tony I look forward to it as well. Let's hope th EURO jumps back on board tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 as usual the euro has been very inconsistent as well. Totally keeps the western storm well off the Cal. coast until its absorbed by the gulf of alaska low. The east is just cold, and dry after the clipper...except northern new England and eastern Canada, and the lake belts. I'm not saying its right though, the GFS looked more realistic to me, but still far away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 maybe a little improvement on the 6z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 maybe a little improvement on the 6z GFS. I forgot how to read these since last winter. The dark blue line the freezing line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 I forgot how to read these since last winter. The dark blue line the freezing line? At 850mb, yes, which is about 1500m up, depending... Better tool is soundings and thickness to ascertain precip type: example of using thickness, find the 1000-850mb thickness line (blue lines) and the 850-700mb thickness line (red lines), and plot on the chart below the intersect for your location to determine QPF type... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Looks like we're going to be cold enough. But are we going to have the precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 I love that soundings pic. Use it alot. At 850mb, yes, which is about 1500m up, depending... Better tool is soundings and thickness to ascertain precip type: example of using thickness, find the 1000-850mb thickness line (blue lines) and the 850-700mb thickness line (red lines), and plot on the chart below the intersect for your location to determine QPF type... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 as usual the euro has been very inconsistent as well. Totally keeps the western storm well off the Cal. coast until its absorbed by the gulf of alaska low. The east is just cold, and dry after the clipper...except northern new England and eastern Canada, and the lake belts. I'm not saying its right though, the GFS looked more realistic to me, but still far away. Agreed. The GFS still suppresses the storm well to our south with the 06z so it will still be cold & dry, with no wintry wx. There is obvious flip flop between the euro and canadian, so I think the GFS surprisingly is the best model to look at (today) as far as next weeks system...trying not to wishcast here, but I think we'll see a northern trend of the system, I just don't think this system will be that suppressed as the GFS is indicating...We'll have the moisture in the SE, just when and where is up in the air I'm sure until late this weekend. Eager to see what the models show within the next few days, and how the correlate with one another. BTW: I'm confused...This + December thread is like two different threads for the threat next week. We need one central threat to post in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 At 850mb, yes, which is about 1500m up, depending... Better tool is soundings and thickness to ascertain precip type: example of using thickness, find the 1000-850mb thickness line (blue lines) and the 850-700mb thickness line (red lines), and plot on the chart below the intersect for your location to determine QPF type... Nice explanation and procedure! Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Agreed. The GFS still suppresses the storm well to our south with the 06z so it will still be cold & dry, with no wintry wx. There is obvious flip flop between the euro and canadian, so I think the GFS surprisingly is the best model to look at (today) as far as next weeks system...trying not to wishcast here, but I think we'll see a northern trend of the system, I just don't think this system will be that suppressed as the GFS is indicating...We'll have the moisture in the SE, just when and where is up in the air I'm sure until late this weekend. Eager to see what the models show within the next few days, and how the correlate with one another. BTW: I'm confused...This + December thread is like two different threads for the threat next week. We need one central threat to post in. Don't worry if the storm is in play by Saturday someone will create a central thread for that storm. I agree with you though it gets pretty confusing with all these threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 The new (12Z) CMC has a Miller A in the N GOM ~100 miles south of the MS/AL border on day 7 (12Z Wed. 12/8). The 0Z Wed CMC had nothing in the GOM then. This is back to the 12/7-8 Miller A big SE winter storm timing of those recent Euro runs. Interesting for sure. Note that the 12Z CMC is now issued through day 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 What is the CMC? The new (12Z) CMC has a Miller A in the N GOM ~100 miles south of the MS/AL border on day 7 (12Z Wed. 12/8). The 0Z Wed CMC had nothing in the GOM then. This is back to the 12/7-8 Miller A big SE winter storm timing of those recent Euro runs. Interesting for sure. Note that the 12Z CMC is now issued through day 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 What is the CMC? Canadian http://www.personal..../models/cmc.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 What is the CMC? Canadian weather model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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