Cheeznado Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Hate to break it to you, but the 12Z Euro is totally different with nothing but cold and dry, the SW system is suppressed completely. Looks like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 12z Euro has some seriously cold air in store for the south by Tuesday. Noted that also, and it has support, 12z GFS ens mean has 850's in the -9 range for most of NC next Tuesday and H5 <540dm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 The 12Z Euro says storm cancel. The beautiful 0Z Euro modeled ATL-AHN and nearby areas' historic snow doesn't exist on this run because the northern jet/cold and dry air is much too dominant. So, storm cancel for ATL-AHN, etc.. Messengers shouldn't be shot..not good for their health! NEXT run! yeah, the northeast vortex gets so strong , not to mention the Gulf of Alaska low helps pump up a big PNA ridge, which dumps the motherlode of cold air and strong high pressure south and east. Squashes everything coming east. The high center settles into Texas, not good for a southern overrunning or gulf low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Hate to break it to you, but the 12Z Euro is totally different with nothing but cold and dry, the SW system is suppressed completely. Looks like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 You are speaking my langauge Burger! Yea as Cheez and GaWx pointed out though it's sending our moisture to Cuba. The 12Z Euro says storm cancel. The beautiful 0Z Euro modeled ATL-AHN and nearby areas' historic snow doesn't exist on this run because the northern jet/cold and dry air is much too dominant. So, storm cancel for ATL-AHN, etc.. Messengers shouldn't be shot..not good for their health! NEXT run! lol I'll put down my gun. Hate to break it to you, but the 12Z Euro is totally different with nothing but cold and dry, the SW system is suppressed completely. Looks like the GFS. Yep the Dr. is in! Noted that also, and it has support, 12z GFS ens mean has 850's in the -9 range for most of NC next Tuesday and H5 <540dm... Yea it's sending freezing temps all the way to the panhandle of Florida at 12z on Tuesday. Looks almost exactly like the first week of Jan. of last year IRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 NOGAPS phases that southern stream energy and sends an apps runner with rain for everybody. We've still got a long way to go with this one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 NOGAPS phases that southern stream energy and sends an apps runner with rain for everybody. We've still got a long way to go with this one... Normally, rain becomes evil as we get further into met. winter. However, because we're only just approaching early Dec. and due to the drought areas, rain is still good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 NOGAPS phases that southern stream energy and sends an apps runner with rain for everybody. We've still got a long way to go with this one... Yep anything possible at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 12Z Ukie still on track, maybe this Euro run is a hiccup. Will post what the Euro ensembles say in a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Normally, rain becomes evil as we get further into met. winter. However, because we're only just approaching early Dec. and due to the drought areas, rain is still good. Almost had a coronary at this. Thank God you clarified it at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Doesn't the Euro have a bias of delaying the wave longer in the southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 12Z Ukie still on track, maybe this Euro run is a hiccup. Will post what the Euro ensembles say in a bit. over the past couple days its seems like the 12z euro has consistently been more on the drier side while the last 2 00z runs have showed near historic storms. so tonights 00z will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 12Z Ukie still on track, maybe this Euro run is a hiccup. Will post what the Euro ensembles say in a bit. Please do, thanks man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Normally, rain becomes evil as we get further into met. winter. However, because we're only just approaching early Dec. and due to the drought areas, rain is still good. Rain will not become anything evil this winter for me....I will welcome every 33 and rain I can get Almost had a coronary at this. Thank God you clarified it at the end. :lmao: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 12Z Ukie still on track, maybe this Euro run is a hiccup. Will post what the Euro ensembles say in a bit. Cheez, can you comment on what the UKMet is showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 12Z Ukie still on track, maybe this Euro run is a hiccup. Will post what the Euro ensembles say in a bit. Simple majority of the 12z GFS members on Allan's site show a southern slider between 156 and 192, lots of spread though in both timing and level of suppression, and I would expect a good deal of spread in the EC ens as well. Some don't even close of a low till it is off the SE coast, while a couple others ride the southern wave across Gulf and develop it there. Nothing special on any of the panels, but all is certainly not lost at this point, and perturbations are par for the course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 yeah, the northeast vortex gets so strong , not to mention the Gulf of Alaska low helps pump up a big PNA ridge, which dumps the motherlode of cold air and strong high pressure south and east. Squashes everything coming east. The high center settles into Texas, not good for a southern overrunning or gulf low. I've been alluding to this scenerio. I afraid it will be the tale of winter 10/11. Suppression equals depression. Gonna unfold alot like a few years ago. Expecting southern and eastern areas to cash in once or twice while we sit on the sidelines with our tongues hanging out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Cheez, can you comment on what the UKMet is showing? I can only see it out to 144 Oops, my bad, I mistakenly looked at the 00Z Run, actually the 12Z Ukie has shifted as well and looks just like the Euro at 144, not good. Sorry for the confusion.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Please do, thanks man! check out the JMA and see if it can make it 3 days in a row! Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Hoping these runs are just hicups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 I've been alluding to this scenerio. I afraid it will be the tale of winter 10/11. Suppression equals depression. Gonna unfold alot like a few years ago. Expecting southern and eastern areas to cash in once or twice while we sit on the sidelines with our tongues hanging out. Ugh....you're probably right, the cliff will always be there for us to jump off of this winter. It did this for the MA folks last winter though. Kept looking to far south then at the last minute it was jackpot time. I know it's a totally different setup and all but my weenie heart wants to believe. Oh and for those who will point out the systems that got smashed last year because of the dominant cold my weenie eyes are also blind to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 check out the JMA and see if it can make it 3 days in a row! Thanks The JMa is much farther south too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 JB thinks the storm will show back up on models... WHERE IS THE STORM? It's nowhere to be seen on the models, just cold, cold and more cold on the 12z run. I expect with time, it will show back up again as the model gets a handle on the short wave coming through the Rockies ridge this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 check out the JMA and see if it can make it 3 days in a row! Thanks JMA is south as well with -5 850's for our area. It would probably be snow for southern parts of Ga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Plenty of time for it to turn north. Last winter they all seemed to trend further and further north the closer it got to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 JB thinks the storm will show back up on models... WHERE IS THE STORM? It's nowhere to be seen on the models, just cold, cold and more cold on the 12z run. I expect with time, it will show back up again as the model gets a handle on the short wave coming through the Rockies ridge this weekend. It would not suprise me if by the weekend some us will be saying thats enough with the northward trend.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 It would not suprise me if by the weekend some us will saying thats enough with the northward trend.. Yeah, seems like we went through the same thing last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 They always go away in this time frame.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 JMA is south as well with -5 850's for our area. It would probably be snow for southern parts of Ga. Not only that, but it also would imply a very close call to an accumulating snow in parts of the FL Panhandle as well as the Gulf coast of AL/MS! This very far south track is, of course, very rare. So, this model run is very much a FWIW, especially since we're talking about the JMA and it is 7-8 days out. I'm not for one minute buying this but rather treating it as entertainment and is just another reminder to watch out for the possibility of wintry precip, possibly major,. during 12/7-8 in parts of the SE US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 FWIW I don't know the NOGAPS track record since I'm new at this, but here it is at the 144 HR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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