Weather Czar Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 How far south? Can't believe I'm asking about 192 hour JMA details TN, NC upstate SC, The northeast GA mtns. But the looks to be the warmest part of the storm as 850 temps and thicknesses are bending northward in GA at that time. But should fall as the low moves to your east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 You mean buying into the snow scenario? I am just commenting on that model run in particular. Day 7 euro looks conducive for something on day 8 or 9, but the model is overdoing the low over the northeast thus suppressing the southern system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Wow....accuweathers complete fantasy forecast has me with 13.8 inches of snow on December 7th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Ji pinned a thread yesterday about jma @ 192 and lo and behold here it is again today. Consistency and remeber the jma scored a LR coup or 2 last year. Yesterday LP was in NW Arkansas, today futher east. Keep an eye on the JMA until it shifts gears from this scenerio 2 runs in a row as we get down into the day 4-7 range latter this week. Here is qpf and surface temps at 192. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Lets see if the 0z GFS reels the weenies in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
somethingfunny Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Lets see if the 0z GFS reels the weenies in. Reporting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 I am reasonably happy with the GFS right now. It always seems to trend so far north that I have to worry about WAA rather than the low giving New Orelans to Tallahassee snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 New Euro back to a Gulf low snow scenario from TX all the way to the Carolinas. The model flip-flops and massive differences are very entertaining right now, will be fun to watch the gyrations continue for the next several days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 New Euro back to a Gulf low snow scenario from TX all the way to the Carolinas. The model flip-flops and massive differences are very entertaining right now, will be fun to watch the gyrations continue for the next several days... yes nearly any solution is possible right now. i feel bad for a pro met right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 I am not sure how it looked for Tennessee but apparently the Euro looked pretty good for the rest of the SE on it's 0z run. I do like our chances when a snow storm comes out of Texas and Oklahoma and rides across the Northern Gulf like the Euro is currently showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 00z Euro didn't look too bad but it had some swings in the temps when the system arrives which were a bit wonky. Kind of suppressed things a little south compared to the 00z before it. If you believe in the north trend then it would have been perfect if this were a Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Weather.com has Aiken, SC getting rain/snow showers Dec. 8th. lol Yeah right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 This is a really good signal from the ens means guys, still a long ways out but excellent agreement considering. Fairly unanimous consensus that the 50-50 low is displaced south, near the Bay of Fundy, which would support a southern track should a system develop in this timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 The 0z Euro is no less than the biggest Dec. snowstorm for KATL since at least 1917 and possibly since 1896. It would also be the biggest moderate to strong La Nina Atlanta snow since 1894. With 850's comfortably below 0c (~-2C to -3C, which is plenty cold to produce just about pure snow for ATL as per history) and a near perfect Miller A surface low track producing ~0.60" of qpf, my interpretation of this run is that it is producing ~5-7" snow for the Atl-Ahn areas from late 12/7 til the late AM of 12/8. This would be bordering on or exceeding the biggest KATL snow since at least the early 1990's! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 The 0z Euro is no less than the biggest Dec. snowstorm for KATL since at least 1917 and possibly since 1896. It would also be the biggest moderate to strong La Nina Atlanta snow since 1894. With 850's comfortably below 0c (~-2C to -3C, which is plenty cold to produce just about pure snow for ATL as per history) and a near perfect Miller A surface low track producing ~0.60" of qpf, my interpretation of this run is that it is producing ~5-7" snow for the Atl-Ahn areas from late 12/7 til the late AM of 12/8. This would be bordering on or exceeding the biggest KATL snow since at least the early 1990's! That would be incredible, BTW, London is plastered in snow currently...Which is rare for them. :snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 The 0z Euro is no less than the biggest Dec. snowstorm for KATL since at least 1917 and possibly since 1896. It would also be the biggest moderate to strong La Nina Atlanta snow since 1894. With 850's comfortably below 0c (~-2C to -3C, which is plenty cold to produce just about pure snow for ATL as per history) and a near perfect Miller A surface low track producing ~0.60" of qpf, my interpretation of this run is that it is producing ~5-7" snow for the Atl-Ahn areas from late 12/7 til the late AM of 12/8. This would be bordering on or exceeding the biggest KATL snow since at least the early 1990's! What is AHN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 What is AHN? Athens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 What is AHN? AHN = Athens, GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 the 12z GFS now has the strong closed low, progressing into southern California. Thats the most important feature. Later on it dampens it, due to the overhwelming cold coming in from northern stream. This is a start for the GFS, and is a very good sign. A temporary split flow . Always the best way to give snow to the Southern states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 12Z CMC is interesting- rain in GA but the trend is there a la the Euro- funny how the GFS is Dr. No this go-round... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 ok well this is starting to suck since it hasnt disappeared - within another day or so we will be less than a week away which means i will have to start tracking it. only to have it taken away the morning of 12/7 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 CMC looks good for here, no doubt! The GFS is just doing it's typical squashing deal,i.m.o. Although, in this case there is a possibility if the upstream block and pressing of the polar jet were to be strong enough. Only way we get a decent grip on this is when we get within the 3-4 day range more than likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 12Z CMC is interesting- rain in GA but the trend is there a la the Euro- funny how the GFS is Dr. No this go-round... Is the 12Z CMC now being produced out past 6 days? It used to be right at 144 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 I would love to see an early season snow here at my new home in Wake Forest. Having moved from the OBX I expect to see more realistic opportunities for snow! Bring it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 12Z CMC is interesting- rain in GA but the trend is there a la the Euro- funny how the GFS is Dr. No this go-round... That looks like a decent trend towards the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 12z Euro has some seriously cold air in store for the south by Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 I would love to see an early season snow here at my new home in Wake Forest. Having moved from the OBX I expect to see more realistic opportunities for snow! Bring it! You and me both! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 12z Euro has some seriously cold air in store for the south by Tuesday. You are speaking my langauge Burger! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 The 12Z Euro says storm cancel. The beautiful 0Z Euro modeled ATL-AHN and nearby areas' historic snow doesn't exist on this run because the northern jet/cold and dry air is much too dominant. So, storm cancel for ATL-AHN, etc.. Messengers shouldn't be shot..not good for their health! NEXT run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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